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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 30, 2024 22:03:03 GMT -6
Happy Easter to All!
No time for big graphics package tonight... just a few thoughts to get this new thread rolling....
Severe weather season has arrived in the Midwest and our next weather system of interest is on track for Monday into Monday night. The risk of severe weather remains on the table for Monday into Monday night. However, there are some potential limiting factors and points of significant uncertainty. First is a strong capping inversion over the warm sector. It will take some strong low-level convergence and/or upper-level support to break that and tap into what should be a moist and unstable atmosphere below. Also, recent trends have been to bring out a more sheared and disorganized low-level system overall and that will limit the amount of directional shear. Another recent trend from the NAM does not come as a big surprise… and that is a slower penetration of the cold front to the south. That appears to be, at least in part, due to the weaker surface waves. Given the latest trends I still see a severe threat across the entire region for Monday into Monday night… mainly from hail and damaging winds. I cannot rule out some QLCS type tornadoes in bowing segments that can become aligned more northwest to southeast…gaining a better angle with the shear vectors. I’m not sure this is set-up… if it remains the same as it looks right now… will merit more than a slight risk (Level 2). Obviously, that could change as the set-up becomes clearer. A more robust low-level system that can back the low-level winds more and increase the overall low level wind speeds will definitely up the potential. I’m not saying there won’t be any severe weather, just that it may not have the high end potential that appeared possible a few days ago. We just need to keep watching to see how the key elements come together.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 30, 2024 22:35:32 GMT -6
Happy Easter everyone!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Mar 30, 2024 23:21:51 GMT -6
Happy Easter!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2024 0:12:29 GMT -6
Big update with the latest SPC update Enhanced risk along and south of 70 for Monday Driven by a 10%# tornado risk and 30% wind  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2024 0:16:18 GMT -6
Relevant tidbit from the discussion
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 31, 2024 3:54:45 GMT -6
Happy Easter!
I was at the disaster that was the Blues game last night. That one was tough to watch.
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Post by REB on Mar 31, 2024 5:33:55 GMT -6
Happy Easter everyone. I appreciate all of you.
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Post by let it snow11 on Mar 31, 2024 6:46:37 GMT -6
Happy Easter! I was at the disaster that was the Blues game last night. That one was tough to watch. Tough to watch on TV as well. If it's any consolation, I also attended a game where the Blues lost to San Jose 4-0. That game was even more important than this one, it was the 2016 Western Conference finals. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Mar 31, 2024 6:47:39 GMT -6
Happy Easter everyone! Looks like we need to be alert tomorrow.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 31, 2024 7:17:35 GMT -6
Happy Easter Everyone!
Tomorrow continues to be a severe weather day, but with caveats and very conditional...especial as youbmove into central Missouri. I thnk it is more likely the high end potential, if it get's realized, ends up further south across southern Missouri... but it's too early still to pin that down with any confidence. I understand what SPC is saying... but I think they may be too generous with the size and northeastward extent of the enhanced. We will see. In their defense, I'm sure they have had more time to do a deeper look than I have. Bottomline, some severe weather is possible tomorrow, so be weather aware!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 31, 2024 7:55:41 GMT -6
Tomorrow looks messy to me...the NAM has shifted northward with the frontal position and instability plume, but debris clouds and precip within the warm sector looks pretty likely. If we do see some clearing during the morning/early afternoon, a greater threat could develop, but it's very conditional as Chris pointed out. The SPC forecast seems pretty bullish to me too.
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 31, 2024 8:16:16 GMT -6
The tornado ingredients product from the SREF has a 45 contour along and south of I-70 in MO. Traditionally that is associated with a 5% or 10% overlook for tornadoes. The SPC went with the higher end 10% (and hatched) for tomorrow. As is typical their outlook matches the SREF probabilities pretty well. Those probabilities increase in the evening hours pretty much right where the hatched area is.
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 31, 2024 9:32:41 GMT -6
I would prefer a strong message from the SPC, as a few weeks ago they were not bullish enough.
I think enhanced is fine.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 31, 2024 11:36:33 GMT -6
Latest update took away the 10 percent and hatched tornado threat. Boo.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 31, 2024 11:53:52 GMT -6
Latest update took away the 10 percent and hatched tornado threat. Boo. And that's a bad thing how? Still plenty of threat for wind and hail. Somewhere is gonna get a good soaking, likely along and north of I-44/1-70. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 31, 2024 12:57:20 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2024 13:12:47 GMT -6
The 10% hatched was questionable to begin IMO
The main threats tomorrow will definitely be the hail transitioning to wind
Any tors will likely be tied to the warm front
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2024 13:44:58 GMT -6
The 18z HRRR has like 5 rounds of storm for the metro tomorrow as storms just keeping riding the warm front lol
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Post by amstilost on Mar 31, 2024 14:58:59 GMT -6
Happy Easter everyone,
I too appreciate everyone on here. This is my go-to place when severe weather looks to be on the horizon.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 31, 2024 15:22:15 GMT -6
Looks like 82*F did us for the high today. Once again a couple degrees warmer on the east side then in downtown/Lambert Airport.
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Post by yypc on Mar 31, 2024 17:53:56 GMT -6
A lot could change still but mexico, texas, and arkansas look like 100% clouds for April 8th. Totally sucks for everyone who has nonrefundable reservations there. We may be in the sweet spot with partially cloudy.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 31, 2024 20:53:06 GMT -6
The GFS has 100% humidity over portions of Southeast Missouri at 3 pm, while the Euro is mainly dry at noon. I think we have to keep a close eye on the potential for cloudiness during the eclipse period, for sure.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 31, 2024 21:01:04 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2024 21:45:33 GMT -6
We’re going to have to watch tomorrow afternoon for any supercells that are able to root themselves along the warm front
Models are showing a localized environment supportive of sig tors
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 31, 2024 22:22:50 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 6:05:29 GMT -6
IR sat shows broken clearing across S/Central MO this morning and little to no precip...going to get unstable today for sure.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 1, 2024 6:20:39 GMT -6
He uses the downward shortwave flux product to better gauge cloudiness. GFS has a well known cloud coverage bias so using the solar input is a better way to do it. The NBM text output has both the SKY and SOL parameters for the NBE product where SOL parameter is the 12 hour mean solar flux. For the NBS and NBH products SOL is instantaneous. Since the global models do not simulate the eclipse this a good parameter to use for cloudiness and the optical depth of the clouds. Since the HRRR is an input to the NBM the SOL parameter may lose its effectiveness to proxy clouds starting on April 6th since the HRRR does simulate the eclipse thus possibly resulting in a drop of SOL regardless of cloud coverage and depth. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 1, 2024 6:22:42 GMT -6
SREF has a 60 contour for its tornado ingredients product in southwest MO right there where the SPC has the 10% hatched area.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 1, 2024 6:32:24 GMT -6
The GFS has 100% humidity over portions of Southeast Missouri at 3 pm, while the Euro is mainly dry at noon. I think we have to keep a close eye on the potential for cloudiness during the eclipse period, for sure. According to the 700 mb rh charts that is. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 6:39:56 GMT -6
CAMs are showing a few supercells traversing the warm front across the N counties this afternoon/early evening, and a threat of overnight QLCS tornadoes with the MCS that develops across OK/MO and tracks ENE. The first batch around mid-day doesn't look as feisty, but CAPE is forecast to reach 1500-2000j/kg+ by then so severe storms are possible. It's looking like a busy day ahead...
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