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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 1, 2024 14:04:00 GMT -6
Some breaking in the clouds at SAFB as I was driving to Mascoutah... its not terribly muggy, it does feel a little damp.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Apr 1, 2024 14:09:24 GMT -6
We need to watch the differntial heating boundary near STL between the clouds/clearing. This may become an effective boundary to focus enough convergence to generate a storm. With the warm front moving north, Round 1 in our viewing are may be slow to ramp up. It is interesting that several CAMS are generating a supercell very near the Missouri River that passes over/near STL in a couple of hours. No signs of development yet... but we continue to watch. 78/66 at the house Up to 80 now with DP 64 in Waterloo Sun still shinning..hazy but definitely out! Guess we wait and see..I can definitely see a good cloud deck North of me. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 1, 2024 14:14:52 GMT -6
This could be a dangerous setup for later tonight if these storm donr get here til 10 or midnight. People sleeping and possible very strong winds and quasi nados
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Apr 1, 2024 14:28:29 GMT -6
It's been kind of cloudy and drizzly all day here. Will that make a difference for us up here in Silex?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 14:29:03 GMT -6
Tornado watch coming shortly for west and southwest Missouri. I don't think it will get any of our counties... but it might clip one or two to the southwest/west.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 1, 2024 14:37:50 GMT -6
We need to watch the differntial heating boundary near STL between the clouds/clearing. This may become an effective boundary to focus enough convergence to generate a storm. With the warm front moving north, Round 1 in our viewing are may be slow to ramp up. It is interesting that several CAMS are generating a supercell very near the Missouri River that passes over/near STL in a couple of hours. No signs of development yet... but we continue to watch. Its hard to envision supercells developing with that rain shield present. Short range models missing that? |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 1, 2024 14:55:10 GMT -6
Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri into parts of
central Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 012050Z - 012245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours as
additional storms may develop in east-central Missouri/central
Illinois. The environment is supportive of large/very-large hail and
damaging winds. The tornado threat is expected to increase this
evening as low-level shear increases near the boundary.
DISCUSSION...Cores within a broad area of precipitation have
occasionally pulsed in intensity. Some recent CAM guidance suggest
that additional storms will develop out of this activity within the
next 2-3 hours. While current wind profiles are not overly
supportive of tornadoes, storms will be near the warm front and
low-level shear should improve this evening as 850 mb winds
increase. Given the background environment and potential evolution
of this activity, a tornado watch will need to be considered.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2024 15:30:07 GMT -6
We need to watch the differntial heating boundary near STL between the clouds/clearing. This may become an effective boundary to focus enough convergence to generate a storm. With the warm front moving north, Round 1 in our viewing are may be slow to ramp up. It is interesting that several CAMS are generating a supercell very near the Missouri River that passes over/near STL in a couple of hours. No signs of development yet... but we continue to watch. It’s hard to envision supercells developing with that rain shield present. Short range models missing that? I was thinking that as well. I think some of the CAMs may be too far north with this cells this evening. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 15:31:46 GMT -6
Here we go...deep convection firing N of Rolla
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2024 15:50:49 GMT -6
Tornado watch up  |
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Post by weatherman222 on Apr 1, 2024 16:02:47 GMT -6
It was sunny and warm since about 11am until now in Fredericktown. Now we are getting clouds and some occasional sprinkles. Any of this cloud/light precipitation going to hamper the treat later this evening and tonight? I'm not around my computer to check mesoanalysis data.
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Post by jeepers on Apr 1, 2024 16:08:51 GMT -6
I’m still in CA. Tennis ball hail can pass my house by!
Weather is gorgeous here. Not enough to get me to want to stay. Great enchiladas and weather doesn’t cancel out the crazy. 🤣
Stay safe, folks!
And the Blues are a tragedy.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 1, 2024 16:30:23 GMT -6
It was sunny and warm since about 11am until now in Fredericktown. Now we are getting clouds and some occasional sprinkles. Any of this cloud/light precipitation going to hamper the treat later this evening and tonight? I'm not around my computer to check mesoanalysis data. Never really sure about what people say on here whether it's sarcasm or their true feelings but you meant "threat" didn't you and not "treat"  🤔🤔🤔🤔😳 |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Apr 1, 2024 16:34:27 GMT -6
Storm currently in New Haven looks like it means business for St Charles County in the next hour
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Post by amstilost on Apr 1, 2024 16:52:38 GMT -6
Pretty rapidly developing storm over STL.
Edit: I was still on Composite but I'm surprised nothing much is showing on Base radar at the same time stamp.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2024 16:55:46 GMT -6
Storm currently in New Haven looks like it means business for St Charles County in the next hour Big RFD surge Tornado threat may be ramping up |
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Post by amstilost on Apr 1, 2024 16:57:13 GMT -6
That storm in STL looks to head to Alton.
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Post by thechaser on Apr 1, 2024 16:59:49 GMT -6
Storm currently in New Haven looks like it means business for St Charles County in the next hour Big RFD surge Tornado threat may be ramping up Looks like some cell mergers as well. That will definitely help with increasing that tornado chance. |
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Post by amstilost on Apr 1, 2024 17:01:27 GMT -6
The cell just west of Jeff City just had a cell merge into it and it looks like a hurricane symbol now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 1, 2024 17:08:07 GMT -6
Waynesville cell might be the one to watch. Rotation tightening up.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 1, 2024 17:12:28 GMT -6
Surprisingly I don’t think there’s been a tornado warning anywhere yet today.
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Post by yypc on Apr 1, 2024 17:12:49 GMT -6
Yikes. Big time hail and rotation on the Defiance cell.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Apr 1, 2024 17:15:35 GMT -6
Looks like a clear hook trying to develop on that storm coming out of northern Franklin County into St Chuck and northwest stl County
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 1, 2024 17:15:55 GMT -6
That cell is mean moving into St. charles
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 1, 2024 17:16:58 GMT -6
Yeah, that cell in St. Charles might have some isolated pockets of large hail in it.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 1, 2024 17:17:33 GMT -6
Tornado warning from that cell near Jefferson City
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 1, 2024 17:18:16 GMT -6
First tornado warning of the day I believe
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 1, 2024 17:22:31 GMT -6
i was just thinking, wow that has to be dropping some serious hail out there by jcity
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 17:22:40 GMT -6
That supercell approaching Chesterfield is really trying to spin up...
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Post by tedrick65 on Apr 1, 2024 17:23:03 GMT -6
Waynesville cell might be the one to watch. Rotation tightening up. Waynesville? |
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🤔🤔🤔🤔😳
