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Post by dschreib on Apr 1, 2024 7:02:23 GMT -6
SPC just updated. Pretty active day on tap.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 1, 2024 7:03:08 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 1, 2024 7:04:13 GMT -6
SPC just updated. Pretty active day on tap. Yep. They extended the 10% hatched area for tornadoes into STL. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 1, 2024 7:06:43 GMT -6
I'm in North Carolina this week so I'll have to watch how the day unfolds from my computer.
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Post by dschreib on Apr 1, 2024 7:12:50 GMT -6
I'm in North Carolina this week so I'll have to watch how the day unfolds from my computer. Must be a thing. I was in South Carolina a few weeks ago when that wall cloud went right over us in Marissa. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 7:25:25 GMT -6
SPC has introduced a 10% hatched TOR risk along/N of 44 into the Metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 7:25:54 GMT -6
I must have been asleep at the wheel, lol
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Post by MakeitRain on Apr 1, 2024 7:40:54 GMT -6
Holy cow.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 1, 2024 8:10:01 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 1, 2024 8:12:03 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 8:29:23 GMT -6
Well, the lack of morning convection and breaks in the overcast helps clear things up a bit more this morning as we look ahead into this afternoon and this evening and tonight. In an attempt to make this forecast as digestable as possible, I think it's best to break the day into two, maybe three "events" or "rounds"... even though in reality round 1 may lead straight into round 2...or there may be some down time between the two. Round 1 - This afternoon (1pm to 6pm) The stationary front is the focus... which means areas near/north of I-70 are the concern. Here, some isolated storms are likely to develop and these are likely to be rotating storms in the mid-levels at the very least... so large hail jumps up on the list. With the amount of mid-level instability I would not be suprised to see some very large hail in this round of storms... up to basball sized hail. Also, there is some potential that one of these storms could anchor into the PBL near the front and become surface or near surface based. This ramps up the tornado potential. Typically, warm fronts/stationary fronts really get my attention...because of the strongly backed low level winds. However, just above the backed winds the 850mb flow is fairly weak this afternoon which may mitigate the tornado potential some along the warm front. But still, it's a warm front so let's watch it closely...as the amount of instability may be enough to overcome the lack of wind in the low levels. Round 2 - Evening into the Overnight (8pm to 2am) For most of the region, this will be the main event. This will be a broken line of thunderstorms/storm line segments that will be capable of producing intense winds up to 70-80 mph, golf ball sized hails and a number of fast moving QLCS type tornadoes. The most concerning part of this line will end up being where it intersects the front and/or any outflow boundaries that have been pushed south from round 1. In fact, the biggest unknown to me is how Round 1 may still impact the playing field for round 2. Conceptually, the greater threat for round 2 should shift a bit more to the south thanks to the push of rain cooled air from round 1. Overall, the SPC outlook looks pretty good given what we know at this time.   |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2024 8:33:20 GMT -6
Here is the SPC discussion for the area today Giant hail and strong tornadoes mentioned  |
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Post by dschreib on Apr 1, 2024 8:35:45 GMT -6
Yeah--messy looking hodographs down in the southern part of the forecast area tonight, at least from the models I've looked at this morning. Whether or not a tornado spins up from that line, winds could be damaging.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 1, 2024 9:09:27 GMT -6
Not to be outdone by the threat of Severe Storms today, but Wednesday could be interesting as cyclonic flow along with a solid cool pool aloft with several disturbances rotating around the upper/mid level low could bring some sloppy wet snowflakes into the mix especially northeast of St. Louis, but can't rule it out even here. One thing is for sure my head is killing me today, which is usually a good sign of a very strong storm system and or dynamic one moving in!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2024 10:41:07 GMT -6
Latest SPC update added a 30% hatched wind risk to the area We are now under a hatched (significant) tornado, wind and hail  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 1, 2024 10:47:21 GMT -6
Everyone hide yo momma and hide yo kids
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 1, 2024 11:06:24 GMT -6
Latest SPC update added a 30% hatched wind risk to the area We are now under a hatched (significant) tornado, wind and hail All that sig risk and Oklahoma gets the moderate for 40 percent hail |
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Post by let it snow11 on Apr 1, 2024 11:32:43 GMT -6
IR sat shows broken clearing across S/Central MO this morning and little to no precip...going to get unstable today for sure. Working down just west of Caledonia MO today. We've stopped for lunch now, and the sun has just burst through, shining brightly. I told my coworker, it's not a good thing. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 11:58:58 GMT -6
Still a very messy set up especially for this afternoon. Round 2 seems to be a little more straight forward.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Apr 1, 2024 12:05:46 GMT -6
First meso discussion up. 60 percent chance of a watch for areas along and north of 70
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 1, 2024 12:17:03 GMT -6
I’m still hoping the weather later today turns out to be April fools.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Apr 1, 2024 12:18:25 GMT -6
Still a very messy set up especially for this afternoon. Round 2 seems to be a little more straight forward. Had a brief shower, for 10 mins...was light nothing heavy now mostly sunny hazy sky..looks and feels like summer in Waterloo..this could really fire up the kettle for later,was that line the secondary warm front alluded to in the NWS discussion?? Trying not to run AC...but 76 in house.. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 1, 2024 12:22:14 GMT -6
I'm at SAFB and it's been cloudy all day.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 1, 2024 12:23:41 GMT -6
Skys are quickly clearing out here after being cloudy all morning
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 1, 2024 12:36:26 GMT -6
I'm at SAFB and it's been cloudy all day. It's starting to break in Fairview |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 1, 2024 12:49:56 GMT -6
17z HRRR has a good supercell moving into St.Charles/STL around 5pm.
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Post by REB on Apr 1, 2024 13:47:18 GMT -6
Sun is shining
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 1, 2024 13:54:06 GMT -6
We need to watch the differntial heating boundary near STL between the clouds/clearing. This may become an effective boundary to focus enough convergence to generate a storm. With the warm front moving north, Round 1 in our viewing are may be slow to ramp up.
It is interesting that several CAMS are generating a supercell very near the Missouri River that passes over/near STL in a couple of hours. No signs of development yet... but we continue to watch.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 13:58:56 GMT -6
Dewpoint up almost 15* since this morning at 66*...it sure feels unstable out there.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 1, 2024 14:02:43 GMT -6
We need to watch the differntial heating boundary near STL between the clouds/clearing. This may become an effective boundary to focus enough convergence to generate a storm. With the warm front moving north, Round 1 in our viewing are may be slow to ramp up. It is interesting that several CAMS are generating a supercell very near the Missouri River that passes over/near STL in a couple of hours. No signs of development yet... but we continue to watch. 78/66 at the house |
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