|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 28, 2022 9:40:04 GMT -6
Happy Birthday !! I hope you get your gift soon
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 28, 2022 10:45:51 GMT -6
Massive high pressure over Greenland is going to lead to a strongly -NAO in early/mid December. Could be some interesting times ahead.  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2022 11:29:45 GMT -6
Yeah, models have started trending towards a strongly -NAO heading into December. That's a cold pattern with the vortex decending towards Hudson and becoming anchored with the blocking. It looks to stay cold after the 5th or so.
There's a decent signal for another severe weather episode early next week with the storm that will be ushering in the cold air. Models are really winding that one up with a strong low pressure developing and plenty of low-level moisture lifting northward.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2022 14:33:52 GMT -6
Looks like Tuesday evening for us is trending towards a narrow band of fast moving thunderstorms or gusty showers/squall moving through between 9PM and 12AM with locally damaging winds, but a brief spin up tornado is possible should any notches form within the broader line. Then it's a fast fall in temps for Wednesday before we warm up again Thursday into Friday in which the cycle repeats but with perhaps more widespread rainfall as previously mentioned. Meanwhile there's gonna be some mean tornadoes between Memphis, TN into northeastern Louisiana.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 28, 2022 17:34:43 GMT -6
Tomorrow’s set up is eerily familiar to what happened last year two weeks before Christmas when Mayfield was hit ….. let’s hope tomorrow isn’t as bad
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2022 18:13:51 GMT -6
Tomorrow’s set up is eerily familiar to what happened last year two weeks before Christmas when Mayfield was hit ….. let’s hope tomorrow isn’t as bad It all depends on how quickly the moisture arrives...a few hours sooner and it could get interesting. But models pretty well keep the richer moisture south of the Metro. Definitely a nasty looking setup further S though. |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 28, 2022 19:46:42 GMT -6
Tomorrow’s set up is eerily familiar to what happened last year two weeks before Christmas when Mayfield was hit ….. let’s hope tomorrow isn’t as bad It all depends on how quickly the moisture arrives...a few hours sooner and it could get interesting. But models pretty well keep the richer moisture south of the Metro. Definitely a nasty looking setup further S though. Yea I wasn’t talking about here , I think (hope ) we are ok but south of us looks to be in trouble tomorrow…. Sadly the same places that were hit last year |
|
|
|
Post by bear1 on Nov 29, 2022 10:23:08 GMT -6
Cloud cover is moving in fast in my neck of the woods. temp is 61° as of 10:20 a.m.
|
|
|
|
Post by foxrox on Nov 29, 2022 10:46:03 GMT -6
Hi. I am also a long time lurker, and I enjoy watching all of the predictions. My name is Linda, retired Air National Guard, and mom of a Marine who is bringing me to Charleston, SC for the holidays.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Nov 29, 2022 11:50:51 GMT -6
SPC meso discussion indicates the future watch in LA/MS will likely be a PDS.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 29, 2022 11:56:01 GMT -6
SPC meso discussion indicates the future watch in LA/MS will likely be a PDS. Going to be a big day down there. SPC states they will likely go high risk later today if confidence increases. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Nov 29, 2022 12:01:58 GMT -6
SPC meso discussion indicates the future watch in LA/MS will likely be a PDS. Going to be a big day down there. SPC states they will likely go high risk later today if confidence increases. I saw that. Discussion mentions moisture and triggering boundary not established "yet" as reason to pass. I've been critical about this in the past, but what's the point of categorical upgrades once the mesos and watches are issued? Outlooks are supposed to be forecasts not nowcasts. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 29, 2022 12:26:27 GMT -6
95/90 watch probs
Yikes
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 29, 2022 12:27:10 GMT -6
Going to be a big day down there. SPC states they will likely go high risk later today if confidence increases. I saw that. Discussion mentions moisture and triggering boundary not established "yet" as reason to pass. I've been critical about this in the past, but what's the point of categorical upgrades once the mesos and watches are issued? Outlooks are supposed to be forecasts not nowcasts. Preach it! Totally agree! It's like issuing a winter storm warning after 6 inches of snow has already fallen. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 29, 2022 12:32:39 GMT -6
No doubt the big show will be way down south and away from our viewing area. It still looks like initiation in our area will struggle along the front in the vicinity of I-44...up to around STL. Timing is in the 5PM to 7PM period... with a very fast push to the east. The SPC outlook has our risks well covered. I can't rule out a few severe warnings for wind. But this will all be very fast this evening.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 29, 2022 12:33:26 GMT -6
Wow, we're getting 6 inches of snow. Can't wait!
|
|
bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
|
Post by bob on Nov 29, 2022 12:33:37 GMT -6
Been reading the posts about cold coming around the 5th of December. Is this looking like a dry cold or do you expect some winter storms?
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 29, 2022 12:47:15 GMT -6
Been reading the posts about cold coming around the 5th of December. Is this looking like a dry cold or do you expect some winter storms? Models are showing a storm that will bring rain and potentially severe weather to the region December 5th-7th. That storm brings down a shot of cold air, but no meaningful signal for a winter storm in the extended yet. Models struggled with this massive block and will likely struggle in assessing how long it stays. So it goes, I keep reminding myself it’s not even December yet. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 29, 2022 13:21:28 GMT -6
Biggest issue is the lack of a Ridge along the Pacific Coast stretching into Alaska/western Canada. The lack of that means troughing will wanna stay along the Rocky Mountains and we only get brief shots that last 1-3 days in an overall largely seasonable to mild pattern. Still holding out until Mid January for anything meaningful for us. We might still get some snow and cold, but nothing lasting or write home about. Overall this should be an above average December even if only by a degree or 2 with most moisture south of us or well north with the polar jet. (Split Flow pattern with occasional dips and ridges).
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 29, 2022 13:39:02 GMT -6
Also looks like nothing for us today/tonight. Front looks almost through per Satellite imagery. Looks like we should be clearing soon? Meanwhile Mississippi will be getting the hammer. Weekend still uncertain but trending drier as the main system then looks to also track south. Weather's gonna be a bore fest locally for a bit.
Yep, just noticed the PDS Tornado watch down there in LA/MS
|
|
cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
|
Post by cowboy on Nov 29, 2022 13:41:29 GMT -6
Biggest issue is the lack of a Ridge along the Pacific Coast stretching into Alaska/western Canada. The lack of that means troughing will wanna stay along the Rocky Mountains and we only get brief shots that last 1-3 days in an overall largely seasonable to mild pattern. Still holding out until Mid January for anything meaningful for us. We might still get some snow and cold, but nothing lasting or write home about. Overall this should be an above average December even if only by a degree or 2 with most moisture south of us or well north with the polar jet. (Split Flow pattern with occasional dips and ridges). I don’t have enough knowledge to disagree or doubt what anyone is saying but I will say the guys at BAM WX seem to be on board with a pattern change and a cold outbreak. They are not hype types. I know time will tell and it will be interesting to watch unfold. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 29, 2022 13:48:55 GMT -6
Wonder what the 4th forecast for Dec. Will be.
|
|
|
|
Post by grizzlebeard on Nov 29, 2022 13:48:57 GMT -6
Has anyone heard from grizzlebeard? Glad Friv is still around! I'm still here, mosue! Thanks for asking! I've been spreading the good word about this board since it was on the Fox 2 website and heavy flurries would result in pictures of Rosie's feet! Plenty of friends and family check in regularly to learn from all the model readers who post. Thanks to everyone who know it isn't coolerbythelake and are willing to offer their opinion on whatever is headed our way next. Let's hope for an eventful winter of forecasting, wishcasting and nowcasting and fewer and fewer systems that disappear 3 days out. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 29, 2022 13:53:42 GMT -6
Biggest issue is the lack of a Ridge along the Pacific Coast stretching into Alaska/western Canada. The lack of that means troughing will wanna stay along the Rocky Mountains and we only get brief shots that last 1-3 days in an overall largely seasonable to mild pattern. Still holding out until Mid January for anything meaningful for us. We might still get some snow and cold, but nothing lasting or write home about. Overall this should be an above average December even if only by a degree or 2 with most moisture south of us or well north with the polar jet. (Split Flow pattern with occasional dips and ridges). I don’t have enough knowledge to disagree or doubt what anyone is saying but I will say the guys at BAM WX seem to be on board with a pattern change and a cold outbreak. They are not hype types. I know time will tell and it will be interesting to watch unfold. Pacific is the biggest driver of our weather pattern. Atlantic of course plays a roll, but this area is very picky when it comes to an 'ideal' pattern and right now I don't see it in the near future. Now east of us might be different as in the Appalachians towards the east coast, but for us we need that Western 1/4 of US into western Canada Ridge is critical for a slam dunk polar plunge especially south of I-80 or southeast of Kansas City to Chicago, IL. Didn't say it 'can't' but the jet stream just isn't in our favor for any big storms with the split flow which only merges well east of us. The pattern would keep any torches limited though. We could see something the week of 6th-12th, but it's a shot in the dark. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 29, 2022 13:54:45 GMT -6
Wonder what the 4th forecast for Dec. Will be. Maybe some clouds and showers south of I-44/I-70 north of that looks dry and seasonable. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 29, 2022 13:59:53 GMT -6
Not saying it's right but the 12Z Euro would be a severe weather outbreak for us on Dec 5th into 6th should it verify as the run shows, timing is not the most ideal though (during the night/overnight hours). Then it's seasonal cold for 2 days before another huge ridge develops overhead...  |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 29, 2022 14:05:59 GMT -6
Looks like the coldest air compared to average will be sitting over Russia for awhile, not even on our side of the globe...
Just read that I was wrong, phase 7 is the most ideal phase for NDJ period for the central US, so clearly it has to be the La Nina or something else then that's wanting to pump up that monster Gulf of Mexico ridge and force us into a mild pattern. In regards to the MJO comment mentioned previously.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 29, 2022 14:26:14 GMT -6
Lol
|
|
|
|
Post by anotherwxfan on Nov 29, 2022 14:27:09 GMT -6
Also looks like nothing for us today/tonight. Front looks almost through per Satellite imagery. Looks like we should be clearing soon? Meanwhile Mississippi will be getting the hammer. Weekend still uncertain but trending drier as the main system then looks to also track south. Weather's gonna be a bore fest locally for a bit.
Yep, just noticed the PDS Tornado watch down there in LA/MS
I think the front is still northwest of Columbia, bellevillewxguy. |
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Nov 29, 2022 16:04:58 GMT -6
Is the front coming through dry?
|
|
