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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 13, 2022 11:43:43 GMT -6
So, I had some time so I'm going ahead and posting this as the start of a new thread. Winter is here! Looking at the 12z data and I am pretty comfortable with the idea of widespread light snow event for most of our area. The track of the key features (500mb vort max and 850mb low) is generally just southwest of I-44 when you take the composite of the morning data...and this falls pretty close to previous output. Considering the speed of this forcing and thermal profiles...while applying a modified GYB technique...the swath of most significant snow will line up from Central/North central Missouri up to near Quincy and Hanibal area. I expect a solid 2-4 inches up in that region...and maybe upwards of 5 if the speed of this thing slows down a bit. I would include Pike County, MO in the 2-4 range for this sytem. Further south...in line with the track of the 500mb vort max and 850mb low center, I expect a rather short duration, but potentially quite intense burst of snow that may only last 2-3 hours at most. This will be the result of intense, but short-lived, forcing directly in advance of the above mentioned features...working in concert with what models forecast to be strong frontogenesis in the 700mb layer in advance of the system. Typically, we get some convection...or convective elements... in advance of vort max enduced precipitation...and this can sometimes mess with precip types...even in otherwise cold columns. Once the burst of more intense snow passes (again 2-3 hours max) the dry slot works in and we lose most of the cloud ice. This will lead to a region of either very fine snow, drizzle or even some light sleet that will persist through about midday Tuesday. Accumulations for the lion's share of the viewing area will run from 1-2 inches...with two exceptions. The first, I mentioned above...Pike County MO should see 2-4 with isolated heavier amounts possible. The other exception will be in areas southeast of the 850mb/500mb vort track...Roughly along and southeast of a line from Farmington up to the Kaskaskia River (same areas that saw big suprise snows). This is not a good set-up for snow for you guys. It's hard to get much snow south of the 850mb/vort track...so I'd say less than 1" for most areas that hit the jackpot in the suprise event the other night (near and south of the Kaskaskia River). Hopeuflly that all makes sense.  |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 13, 2022 14:29:49 GMT -6
We made the trek to Knoxville for the game yesterday. Can't say I'm "glad" I missed the snow, but the kids' first game at Neyland was amazing. Packed Vol Walk, huge crowd, big win, senior day, Smokey X's last game (he got a workout yesterday), and singing Rocky Top with 102,000 of our closest friends is a good trade.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2022 16:07:50 GMT -6
I think we may to consider a secondary band of enhanced lift once again over the same region that got nailed last time. RAP is playing that tune...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2022 16:35:11 GMT -6
I think we may to consider a secondary band of enhanced lift once again over the same region that got nailed last time. RAP is playing that tune... Most of the models have it. Others are just a bit more dry. The 21Z rap is wetter. But this far out it's a crap shoot. How is your snow pack? Did you have good retention today??? I'm on my way home from work in Edwardsville where there is nothing on the ground. It was crazy coming home to a half foot still on the ground yesterday. I hope we still have at least half that today. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2022 17:20:21 GMT -6
It took a beating today. Only shady spots and slopes remain covered.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2022 21:11:27 GMT -6
Thinking a D-2" should cover Tuesday's system for most of the region...it's just not looking overly impressive but should lay down the first snowfall for many.
Wednesday is looking like a good setup for SNSH activity with a cold core digging across the area and moist cyclonic flow in place.
Friday and Saturday looks downright cold with an impressive arctic airmass settling in.
A very wintry week for sure...
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Post by amstilost on Nov 14, 2022 4:21:30 GMT -6
I know it's a moot point but but as I clicked on the local forecast I see a winter weather advisory to my north and west(7 miles west of De Soto) location. was there ever an advisory of warning issued after the fact the other day?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2022 5:49:58 GMT -6
Lock it in, lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 14, 2022 8:09:08 GMT -6
Of course...lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2022 8:09:50 GMT -6
Felt like the heart of winter out there this morning.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Nov 14, 2022 8:16:11 GMT -6
 I'm up in Macon Missouri hunting! Shot this beauty and was going to come home but this snow coming is making me stay another day or two! ❄️ 🦌 🥰 |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2022 8:19:15 GMT -6
I still really like my posted graphic. I have trouble with forecasting anything more than a quick burst of mood flakes south of the 850/vort track.
I think 1-2 is solid for most of the area north of that track... with amounts increasing up further north.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 14, 2022 8:46:45 GMT -6
Yep. Troy, Mo to Jerseyville, IL look like they will get the greatest return here for our viewing area and see a couple inches.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2022 9:11:35 GMT -6
Lol, the 6z gfs has a Black Friday blizzard that would put STL over the average annual total snowfall.
Beautiful fantasy storm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2022 9:29:38 GMT -6
Lol, the 6z gfs has a Black Friday blizzard that would put STL over the average annual total snowfall. Beautiful fantasy storm. Groundhog day blizzard redux on with that.
Colombia gets almost 2' of snow while STL is getting a sleet fest
Still 276hrs out so things can change  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 14, 2022 9:53:41 GMT -6
So... the latest HRRR, supported in part by the RAP and more so the RGEM all look much more like what this pattern should generate in my opinion in terms of snowfall totals. Steady as she goes!
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Post by amstilost on Nov 14, 2022 9:54:19 GMT -6
That's a beaut House Springs. My wife was sick the whole week last week and still trying to recover and now I have it. Haven't been in the woods yet.  Some nasty sinus/cough headcold crap. Two people in the family have the same thing (one we caught it from) and they have both tested negative for Covid multiple times so that's good. Maybe late Thursday or most likely Friday morn. |
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Nov 14, 2022 10:01:44 GMT -6
That's a beaut House Springs. My wife was sick the whole week last week and still trying to recover and now I have it. Haven't been in the woods yet. Some nasty sinus/cough headcold crap. Two people in the family have the same thing (one we caught it from) and they have both tested negative for Covid multiple times so that's good. Maybe late Thursday or most likely Friday morn. There are definitely a LOT of respiratory viruses spreading around lately. My kid keeps bringing bugs home from kindergarten, wife and I have been sick on and off for nearly 6 weeks straight. I actually developed bronchitis and lost my voice for 4 or 5 days about a month ago, nasty dry unproductive cough and all in the chest. Now I just have general cold symptoms...coughing, sneezing and a little congestion. Never had fevers though and negative COVID tests. Flu/COVID/RSV and probably some other nasties... I believe the talk of a "tripledemic" this winter. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2022 10:02:45 GMT -6
That's a beaut House Springs. My wife was sick the whole week last week and still trying to recover and now I have it. Haven't been in the woods yet. Some nasty sinus/cough headcold crap. Two people in the family have the same thing (one we caught it from) and they have both tested negative for Covid multiple times so that's good. Maybe late Thursday or most likely Friday morn. I’ve been sick for the last week too. Last Monday night was as bad as Covid, but tested negative. I have a newborn and he is doing good so better me than him though I assume he will eventually get it unfortunately. |
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Post by jeepers on Nov 14, 2022 10:37:13 GMT -6
Kindergarten is a petri dish of cooties. Kid gets it, brings it home and spreads it incrementally through the family. This cycle repeats until at least Spring. I refer to this as “Kindergarten Crud”.. I got sick so many times during my first kid’s first year, that a new doctor worked me up for an autoimmune disease. Nope, just small kid cooties. Wasn’t as bad with the second kid, cause he was getting it from his older sibling as a toddler. I literally volunteered in my daughter’s classroom to teach the kids about hand washing. Fluorescent beads in hand lotion with a blacklight demonstration, and then had all of the kids do it. Informative but also an act of self preservation. LOL (Didn’t help.)
My best advice is taking care of yourself as best you can. Sleep, eat well, Vitamin C and zinc. Chicken soup (drown in fluids). Wash your hands. Antiviral tissues, and wash common surfaces frequently. Maintain decent humidity.
Side note: RSV is a butt kicker. Secondary bacterial pneumonia is not uncommon, so again, take good care and do what you can to avoid it for everyone.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 14, 2022 11:28:24 GMT -6
Lol, the 6z gfs has a Black Friday blizzard that would put STL over the average annual total snowfall. Beautiful fantasy storm. How do we convey our approval for that? That would certainly muck up a lot of shopping plans. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2022 12:08:14 GMT -6
Short range models are looking pretty decent for tonight...there's a trend for a more coherent/closed mid-level system on approach and a bit stronger TROWAL response. GYB method does favor the N/NW counties for the better chance of 2"+ amounts, but there could be some mesobanding further S closer to the Metro along the NW flank of the h85 low track. There is probably potential for some 3" amounts where that sets up. Would think an advisory would be appropriate with potential for snow covered roads where it comes down hard enough.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2022 13:42:56 GMT -6
Somebody in that band north of 70 is going to get 6+ inches…probably on the Illinois side.
Fgen bands are back to being mean looking on the models this year.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 14, 2022 13:49:58 GMT -6
The Euro has -16C to -18C 850mb temps reaching the Northern 2/3rds of the metro Friday during the day time hours as the brunt of the mid level cold dome skirts through.
The model has STL reach 30-31F. I really doubt that. Even with sunny skies. I didn't check but I'm assuming it's sunny with that much day time heating under that air mass.
I'm thinking many of us won't break 25F.
If it wasn't for the midnight high of 30-35F.
Friday could have been one of the coldest days here without snow cover in November.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 14, 2022 14:26:52 GMT -6
KEND 141956Z 00000KT 1/4SM R17C/3500FT +SN VV000 00/M01 A3005 RMK SLP188 P0025 T00001010 $
.25 in an hour in Enid- coming down
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2022 14:56:04 GMT -6
Here's to some +SN tonight!
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 14, 2022 15:08:39 GMT -6
That's a beaut House Springs. My wife was sick the whole week last week and still trying to recover and now I have it. Haven't been in the woods yet. Some nasty sinus/cough headcold crap. Two people in the family have the same thing (one we caught it from) and they have both tested negative for Covid multiple times so that's good. Maybe late Thursday or most likely Friday morn. I’ve been sick for the last week too. Last Monday night was as bad as Covid, but tested negative. I have a newborn and he is doing good so better me than him though I assume he will eventually get it unfortunately. I'll be up in downtown Chicago for a conference this weekend. Looks like its gonna be pretty cold. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2022 16:16:45 GMT -6
I’ve been sick for the last week too. Last Monday night was as bad as Covid, but tested negative. I have a newborn and he is doing good so better me than him though I assume he will eventually get it unfortunately. I'll be up in downtown Chicago for a conference this weekend. Looks like its gonna be pretty cold. 50 degree lake water will keep things reasonable downtown. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2022 16:25:14 GMT -6
This storm is absolutely flying but it looks pretty good on satellite.
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Post by amstilost on Nov 14, 2022 17:28:41 GMT -6
Can/should we 'bank' on the convective showers/storms in AR to continue NE into our southern areas or is our air too dry to support them?
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Some nasty sinus/cough headcold crap. Two people in the family have the same thing (one we caught it from) and they have both tested negative for Covid multiple times so that's good. Maybe late Thursday or most likely Friday morn.
