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Post by ajd446 on Nov 19, 2022 7:39:45 GMT -6
Last nights Euro had an interesting set up for snowfall on turkey day. Showed a few inches of slop that night into friday with a very strong slp.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 19, 2022 8:01:32 GMT -6
Hamburg, NY with 73" and Orchard Park, NY with 77" as of 8am. These come from americanwx.com so take with a grain of salt. But it's also from a well known poster who knows what he's doing so they're probably legit.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 19, 2022 8:15:50 GMT -6
Orchard Park working on their 7th foot. Lol, wow
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 19, 2022 9:59:51 GMT -6
Definitely some interesting trends with the models for the Thanksgiving/Black Friday storm. They have trended towards a more dominant N stream which allows a bit more cold air to be tapped on the backside of the deepening/occluding low. That's a pretty favorable pattern for wrap around SNSH/squalls. If models keep trending that way, there could be some potential there...but need to see better support and consistency. The GEM says "what storm", lol!
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 19, 2022 10:57:18 GMT -6
Maybe that stuff will wait til most of Thanksgiving is over so those who are traveling for dinner can get home?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 19, 2022 11:20:10 GMT -6
Maybe that stuff will wait til most of Thanksgiving is over so those who are traveling for dinner can get home? Current model trend supports that...but we're a ways out still so things could change drastically. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 19, 2022 12:51:35 GMT -6
GFS back to having the storm in the southern stream and shearing it out while the GEM looks like the GFS/EURO did last night...models continue to be all across the board!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 19, 2022 14:10:17 GMT -6
GFS back to having the storm in the southern stream and shearing it out while the GEM looks like the GFS/EURO did last night...models continue to be all across the board! Some things never change |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Nov 19, 2022 14:31:17 GMT -6
What does Euro look like?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 19, 2022 15:14:24 GMT -6
What does Euro look like? Some rain/snow showers on Friday. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 20, 2022 9:18:34 GMT -6
GFS is still a huge outlier with the cut off development while the GEM/EURO basically have a glorified cold front here with little fanfare in terms of precip. Seems like there's a trend for that storm to delay development until it hits the coast. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the trend for much of the winter, although the weakening La Nina is a potential wild card as it could activate the southern stream as WSC has mentioned.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2022 10:16:24 GMT -6
GFS is still a huge outlier with the cut off development while the GEM/EURO basically have a glorified cold front here with little fanfare in terms of precip. Seems like there's a trend for that storm to delay development until it hits the coast. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the trend for much of the winter, although the weakening La Nina is a potential wild card as it could activate the southern stream as WSC has mentioned. Looks like the 12z gfs just caved. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 20, 2022 10:21:20 GMT -6
The ridge for that Thanksgiving system is awfully far east for us. Going to be tough to get any cold air unless the system can generate it on its own.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2022 10:36:36 GMT -6
Things look active going into the last week of November.
Probably a cutter with potential severe weather followed by a chance for snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 20, 2022 10:59:19 GMT -6
Yeah, the trof/neg anomaly in the GoA and intermountain ridge isn't favorable at all for us...it's shutting off the continental airmass supply and favoring E Coast troffing.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 20, 2022 11:26:04 GMT -6
Model trends have been all over the place for Thursday. My approach has been to keep scattered showers in the forecast and remain consistent. I don't think there will be a lot of rain... but I do not want to advertise a "nice day" when there is so much uncertainty.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 20, 2022 11:31:57 GMT -6
I think that's a good call. There will probably be enough forcing from the front and the digging trof to get some precip going on Thurs...but definitely looking like minor impacts overall.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 20, 2022 13:16:23 GMT -6
Definitely kind of a boring pattern the next two weeks hopefully things get going as we move into December
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 20, 2022 17:23:47 GMT -6
The GFS is struggling mightily with the late week forecast. 18z is a totally different look from the last run.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 21, 2022 7:26:50 GMT -6
The overnight runs have pretty much all flipped to at least a brief southern cut-off. All are much wetter than before...especially Friday. The Euro even makes a run at wet snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 21, 2022 7:30:26 GMT -6
Really awful model performance with that storm...wow
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 21, 2022 7:53:44 GMT -6
Agreed everyone models are terrible. The Euro seems the most consistent in my opinion however with it having some consistency with the outcome last several runs however I doubt it would be much snow but an decent soaking rain does seem possible
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 21, 2022 9:16:12 GMT -6
The EURO is pretty well the outlier now with the GEM giving the GFS support with the cut-off development. But I do agree that the EC has been the most consistent overall. And ensembles are more progressive with the trof which gives doubt to the cut-off scenario. Hopefully models begin to converge in the next couple runs or so.
It's tough to lend much credence to anything beyond that storm with models being so flaky, but the large scale pattern that ensembles show is pretty supportive for severe weather in the middle of the country with a deep S flow developing ahead of the next wave digging in.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 21, 2022 10:25:23 GMT -6
Rainy deformation zone on the GFS
Lock it in
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 21, 2022 11:00:49 GMT -6
I think the Ukmet has been the best model for our sensible winter season weather last year and so far this year.
Looks like a decent amount of rain is coming (1+ inches) by this weekend.
Next week looks active and quite interesting to me. Lots of energy and plenty of cold building to our northwest. Basically, just need a lead wave to coax it down into position.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 21, 2022 16:21:33 GMT -6
Agree. We could get 1 to 2 inches of rain if model trends hold over the 4 days. Its going to be a pain for both the gatherings and the holiday shoppers.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 22, 2022 8:46:06 GMT -6
Looks like December might not be as warm as originally thought. A lot of guidance is point to a more seasonable to even slightly cooler then normal December now with wetter conditions. This might be setting up long range to be a top ten winter for us snow and cold wise. All about timing and how the blocking sets up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 22, 2022 9:33:03 GMT -6
I don't see much if any support for that...most models are still showing the -PNA into December with a ridge near the Aleutian Chain...that's not favorable for cold intrusions this far East, although it could be coaxed down at times. Maybe it will support an overrunning pattern down the road.
Meanwhile, it looks like the cut-off solution was right after all...this weekend is looking pretty damp. Once that clears out, the pattern still looks supportive for a potential severe wx episode in the S/Central Plains and possibly the Midwest towards the middle of next week.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 22, 2022 10:26:11 GMT -6
I don't see much if any support for that...most models are still showing the -PNA into December with a ridge near the Aleutian Chain...that's not favorable for cold intrusions this far East, although it could be coaxed down at times. Maybe it will support an overrunning pattern down the road. Meanwhile, it looks like the cut-off solution was right after all...this weekend is looking pretty damp. Once that clears out, the pattern still looks supportive for a potential severe wx episode in the S/Central Plains and possibly the Midwest towards the middle of next week. Looked like the 12z gefs yesterday had a +PNA, -EPO, and -NAO. Also, Autumnal Northern Hemisphere SCE is exceeding all years since 2007, which bodes well for some colder air masses this season. Finally, definitely some signs of a December PV split. I would say some predicting a torch will be walking it back at least towards seasonal and there is potential for it to be quite cold. In fact, the euro control had the coldest air since 2009 for a large chunk of the US the week before Christmas. Obviously, that is cherry-picking, but shows the potential. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 22, 2022 11:04:15 GMT -6
I certainly don't expect a torch, but sustained cold air is going to be tough to come by around here, at least for the first part of the month, IMO. From what I've looked at, a -PDO and +AO/NAO is favored overall. Not a terrible looking pattern, but far from great.
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