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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 21:02:52 GMT -6
Whatever, people complain on here and follow the trends all the time and voice their thoughts. Im not the only one. And you also plagerize other people's thoughts and work. You clearly want to be 100 percent accepted in the inner circle science talk. But you haven't put in the effort to turn this obsession for weather into something more. I am glad earlier you gave Higgins credit for a thought he had. But this morning and last night you took someone else's credibly thoughts and passed them off as if you full stop....could honestly "know" what it means to the core. Listen... Just don't do that. You are clearly INTELLIGENT enough to take the time to self educate meteorology and hang with the wannabe armeatre big dogs like me, snow man, other snow dudes, cards weather, brtn, landscaper and more. I didn't mention the college educate ones. You can learn, ascend, and EARN the RESPECT from this weather FAMILY you try so hard to get I believe in you. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 21:06:09 GMT -6
I have been following this forum since its original platform in the old days and have seen it evolve as technology has evolved. On my drive home today I was thinking how surprising it is that a couple of you, specifically a BRTN, or maybe a couple others, haven’t branched out into the YouTube live world or TikTok live to do live segments of you reviewing the model data as it comes in. That could be a potential huge success! You know this whole group would be watching them. Thought? I've thought about it but my internet connection is terrible out here in the sticks and I doubt I could stream anything that would be useable resolution-wise for model analysis. It's a data dead zone...can't even get DSL because the phone lines are so crappy. Maybe when starlink gets going... |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 21:06:09 GMT -6
Thank you Friv. I needed that. I dont ever mean to copy others. I am sorry about that. I am trying, when I am in the heat of the moment of these model runs its hard to control, but I do understand, I will do my best.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 13, 2022 21:09:18 GMT -6
Chris is the best. Logging in to smack us around just before a live segment. Noice!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 21:12:39 GMT -6
Yes Mchafin that is true, and thank you Chris for a great home for us weather nuts. I bet there is not a forum like this anywhere else in the country. And I bet if we all lived somewhere where the weather was easy such as its always snow or its always rain it would be no fun. I really appreciate this forum, and thank you guys for bringing me back to reality.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 13, 2022 21:13:00 GMT -6
Also - I’m not seeing where in Friv’s soundings hours 33 and 36 show rain then snow. Can someone circle what shows that?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 21:13:16 GMT -6
I still think this is a mostly snow event for much of the area. There should be enough dynamical cooling to get the column near/below freezing during the stronger forcing/snow rates. It's definitely going to be a spring like storm though with bust potential. The metro is riding a fine line with thermo fields on these latest runs for sure. You have to admit tho... The NAM breaking back West a bit with the FGEN band is HUGE. THIS BAND IS GOING TO WOBBLE OVER US FOR LIKE 12-15 HOURS. THE DGZ IS REALLY SMALL... THAT SUCKS... BUT LIFT IS TREMENDOUS THRIFT THE COLUMN. This takes place while the mid level system dives South and closed off. Then slightly SLOWS DOWN AND STARTS TURNING EAST. 12 HOURS+ OF THAT BAND SITTING ON TOP OF US. WWWWWOOOOOOOO!!!!!!  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 21:16:40 GMT -6
Also - I’m not seeing where in Friv’s soundings hours 33 and 36 show rain then snow. Can someone circle what shows that? In the bottom right corner it says best guess precip. At hour 33 it says rain. While the others say snow. It is very likely that is because the model has temps between 750 ft above the ground to say 2000 feet warms up enough to turn the wet snow missiles into water GOBLINS |
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Post by WeatherLes on Jan 13, 2022 21:21:05 GMT -6
Hey all, as with cnagel I have been around in the background for quite a long time now. I don’t post but do however love reading everything you all discuss. There are some pretty interesting peeps on here who should do some live feeds. I’ll just keep myself in the background reading everything and enjoy the post. Here’s to a foot of surprise snow. Lol
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 13, 2022 21:21:20 GMT -6
I don’t know- maybe it’s me… but I feel a lot of love in this room tonight
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2022 21:26:25 GMT -6
Love it friv...add water goblins to the list of ”frivisms.” My personal favorite of all time is DIAMOND STUDDED BONE CRUSHER. I think that was from the Jan 2014 storm.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 13, 2022 21:27:00 GMT -6
I don’t know- maybe it’s me… but I feel a lot of love in this room tonight
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Post by dschreib on Jan 13, 2022 21:30:41 GMT -6
I'm usually Debbie Downer when it's marginal...but this has the look of a mostly snow event to me. Big, sloppy, partially-melted snowflakes.
And my suggestion to the group? Keep scrollin', scrollin', scrollin', scrollin'.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 21:30:41 GMT -6
I don’t know- maybe it’s me… but I feel a lot of love in this room tonight |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 13, 2022 21:30:48 GMT -6
Also - I’m not seeing where in Friv’s soundings hours 33 and 36 show rain then snow. Can someone circle what shows that? In the bottom right corner it says best guess precip. At hour 33 it says rain. While the others say snow. It is very likely that is because the model has temps between 750 ft above the ground to say 2000 feet warms up enough to turn the wet snow missiles into water GOBLINS (Grumbling to self) - Never looked in the bottom right. Always tried to see where those lines lined up. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 13, 2022 21:30:54 GMT -6
I don’t know- maybe it’s me… but I feel a lot of love in this room tonight That's why I'm here...👨❤️👨 Have been since the beginning and will continue until we are all 80+. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 21:31:02 GMT -6
Nothing really new with the RGEM, maybe a tad drier if anything, but still mostly snow.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 13, 2022 21:32:37 GMT -6
I was thinking Michael Keaton in Night Shift
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 21:36:03 GMT -6
Yeah, Friv...you can see it putting on the brakes and starting to pivot even on the surface chart...that slows the exit of the Fgen forcing and actually strengthens it for a while looking at 700/850mb charts. Snow rates should be good under that band.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 13, 2022 21:47:40 GMT -6
We shall see where this thing comes in at. The post mortem analysis should be pretty gnarly.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 21:48:31 GMT -6
GFS 33hrs in, but looking sweet so far.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2022 21:49:23 GMT -6
To be clear... I can be worried about the rain and still not change my thoughts on this being mostly all snow. This will not be a bouncing ball between rain and snow. Once it goes over it's done... and given the intensity of the precipitation that will push temps within the band to freezing. Man, I wish I was going to be here to see this. Probably the closest I can come to being a similar "look" to the visual nature of this snow may be the Christmas Eve storm of 2009. That was the year my dad passed away and I felt like the Lord gifted us that special gem of a snowfall. Monster flakes, marginal temperatures... marshmallow world with lots of snow in the trees. Pure magic. We all need some magic. Share pictures  It's a shame I have to leave town for you all to enjoy snow lol. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 21:50:48 GMT -6
GfS does look great if that band turns to snow quick we will all be happy
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2022 21:51:49 GMT -6
Enjoy the game Chris ! If we don’t say it enough thanks for what you do!!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 21:53:08 GMT -6
Safe travels Chris, you may have some snow where you are going as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 22:00:12 GMT -6
That's about as classic of a heavy wet snow with hamsters sounding as you'll see off the 00z GFS I would like to see the lift centered more squarely in the DGZ but otherwise perfect  |
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Post by sullivandave on Jan 13, 2022 22:01:12 GMT -6
I'll add a thank you all in there too. I'm a sandbagger.... I'm not as smart as all of you, but I love this forum and constantly read here to get insights into every system that move through. Keep up the great work all, and thanks for the education. And thank you Chris for giving us this gathering place. I'll go back to silence now.... thanks all.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 13, 2022 22:01:54 GMT -6
This sure is a unique storm with no real analogs. I feel this storm may have a few tricks up its sleeve. I'm not totally writing off this thing slowing down and bombing out and crushing someone. I don't believe this will be rain for very long aside for a brief period at the onset. Once the precip rates pick up and with a NE wind aiding evap cooling the rain should quickly turn to snow and could be some monster flakes. It'll be sloppy and will compact but could make for a real "postcard" kind of scenery.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 13, 2022 22:02:51 GMT -6
Have a safe drive, and enjoy your son and the game.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2022 22:04:43 GMT -6
Am I correct in saying that the GFS snow totals are 3-4 inches with half the precipitation falling as rain ? If this changes over quickly wouldn’t that push totals more into the 6 inch range?
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It's a shame I have to leave town for you all to enjoy snow lol.
