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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 20:25:08 GMT -6
It does suck that it's middle of January and we have a system coming in from the NW and we are dealing with rain issues.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:26:21 GMT -6
A couple degree difference this is a warning snow, or 1 inch or less and all rain
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2022 20:28:00 GMT -6
And South Carolina is forecast to get 10 plus inches …… we have to beg for a few……
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2022 20:28:49 GMT -6
Definately one of the most dissapointing things Ive seen tracking a storm all week and now seeing it be a rainer. lets hope for a big suprise, otherwise I think Im moving to where it actually snows. tennessee lol Please pick an angle and stick to it for at least 10 minutes. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:30:16 GMT -6
I say whats on my mind and trends. I want expert opinions hear, such as do we really need to worry about the rain, or is it just model hype
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 20:31:10 GMT -6
Definately one of the most dissapointing things Ive seen tracking a storm all week and now seeing it be a rainer. lets hope for a big suprise, otherwise I think Im moving to where it actually snows. tennessee lol Please pick an angle and stick to it for at least 10 minutes. +1000 |
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Jan 13, 2022 20:31:54 GMT -6
Definately one of the most dissapointing things Ive seen tracking a storm all week and now seeing it be a rainer. lets hope for a big suprise, otherwise I think Im moving to where it actually snows. tennessee lol So it’s over? |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 13, 2022 20:32:07 GMT -6
Lol.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:32:37 GMT -6
Whatever, people complain on here and follow the trends all the time and voice their thoughts. Im not the only one.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 13, 2022 20:33:10 GMT -6
A little better than I intitially thought.....but I DO NOT like my proximity to that %#$@& minima.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2022 20:35:27 GMT -6
My grandmother gave me great advice…. You have two ears and only one mouth…. That means you should listen twice as much and speak half as much …… lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:38:51 GMT -6
Yea yea, I get it but there are others on hear with attitudes, so i talk alot during the chance of getting a big snow great, other than that you guys dont hear from me much outside of the winter. I love weather probably more than anyone on hear, I have 60 credits from Mizzou in meteorology because I love the study of it so much, but I could not do the damn math to be a meteorologist.
End rant.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 20:39:58 GMT -6
Whatever, people complain on here and follow the trends all the time and voice their thoughts. Im not the only one. Dude, you say everything is fine, it's all snow..then 5 minutes later you say it's a rain storm. Please stop saying every though that enters your head. No one wants to know what's in my head every 45 seconds either, it's a very scary place. So please..for the love of everything that's holy..EASE UP. Moderator snowman99 has spoken. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2022 20:41:11 GMT -6
Just enjoy the snow, when chris and the nws start to worry bout the rain then we should worry, until then status quo. Mores qpf can mean more snow if there is not much rain, thats why I am excited I'm worried about the rain. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:41:26 GMT -6
ok fine snowman, we should have our own back page rant going on with these damn models lol, also with some strong whiskey
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 20:41:32 GMT -6
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Post by mchafin on Jan 13, 2022 20:42:26 GMT -6
Just enjoy the snow, when chris and the nws start to worry bout the rain then we should worry, until then status quo. Mores qpf can mean more snow if there is not much rain, thats why I am excited I'm worried about the rain. He has spoken. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2022 20:44:48 GMT -6
Steady as she goes at this point.
2-4 is a good solid forecast. We still have to track the snow hole. It's real and will stick it to somebody's accumulation in our viewing area. Whom will it be?
I know it will snow though because I will not be here to see it! I'm heading to Xavier tomorrow to visit my son and see a basketball game this weekend. I'll check in from Cincinnati!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:45:11 GMT -6
Serious question how accurate is the wrf model usually, as it does look nice in the metro with a heavy band of snow from hours 30 to 33 and still going. I know some channels use that as their predictor
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 20:45:50 GMT -6
Yikes
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 13, 2022 20:49:05 GMT -6
What stage are we at again? 8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.) I love when one of the steps get thrown in. Lmao!!! Happens almost every storm and makes sense everytime. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 20:49:25 GMT -6
The nam is perfect. Except the warm layer. I haven't had a chance to see the soundings but even at 34-35F a 1000-2000ft layer can be horribly stubborn. The NAM sounding for Belleville Illinois tomorrow evening when the FGEN band is ramping up. That shows precip has broken through and the column is quickly saturating. That definitely doesn't appear to be rain.      So at Belleville for 5 time frames during which the FGEN band is going hardcore. 24: SNOW 27: SNOW 30: SNOW 33: RAIN 36: SNOW So yeah all snow except one. And that one it looks like between 750 - 1500 feet temps rise to 33-34F. The surface is 33F at that time. So wow that's close. But that's definitely 99% snow verbatim. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 13, 2022 20:49:52 GMT -6
Have to be worried about the rain- this could be a bust both ways. QPF is good- and may be mostly rain… but if we can get the snow to break thru… which is a good probability to see some 6+ snow
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2022 20:50:14 GMT -6
Everybody needs to settle down in here.
Coming up tonight at 9pm (in just a few minutes) I have the story of the Hurricane Hunters... hunting snow! I have the exclusive interview tonight with the guy who has been flying into the Pacific energy that will soon by our winter storm!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 20:51:03 GMT -6
Thanks Friv for the sounding lesson, that’s reassuring.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 20:52:26 GMT -6
ARW WRF is really bringing the beef with it's run... Snow Galore.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 20:52:31 GMT -6
Agree Friv, soundings definitely argue for snow if the lift is there. Pretty lame we even have to worry about rain when we’re on the cold side of a system, at night, in mid January.
Good ol STL winters
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 20:52:44 GMT -6
thank you friv, chris, snow, for bringing me back to earth
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Jan 13, 2022 21:00:21 GMT -6
I have been following this forum since its original platform in the old days and have seen it evolve as technology has evolved.
On my drive home today I was thinking how surprising it is that a couple of you, specifically a BRTN, or maybe a couple others, haven’t branched out into the YouTube live world or TikTok live to do live segments of you reviewing the model data as it comes in. That could be a potential huge success! You know this whole group would be watching them.
Thought?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 21:02:16 GMT -6
I still think this is a mostly snow event for much of the area. There should be enough dynamical cooling to get the column near/below freezing during the stronger forcing/snow rates. It's definitely going to be a spring like storm though with bust potential. The metro is riding a fine line with thermo fields on these latest runs for sure.
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