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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 22:05:44 GMT -6
Safe travels Chris!
Hour 33 on GFS is also snow looking at the sounding. And mid 30 dBZ’s.
Also, H5 is unreal looking as system moves through. Definitely A different look than what we are used to.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 13, 2022 22:19:21 GMT -6
I miss Friv’s kabooms …
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Post by TK on Jan 13, 2022 22:33:55 GMT -6
Nothing better than watching you family nuts, drinking adult beverages and watching the Blues win. I have had the honor of meeting Friv in person and he is as beautiful on the inside as on the outside. BTW - he looks like Tom Cruise...Love you Friv!
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Post by TK on Jan 13, 2022 22:38:21 GMT -6
I would hate to be in the Charlotte area this weekend...Looks really bad...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 22:40:55 GMT -6
Safe travels Chris! Hour 33 on GFS is also snow looking at the sounding. And mid 30 dBZ’s. Also, H5 is unreal looking as system moves through. Definitely A different look than what we are used to. Unfortunately it shows rain for Belleville. That's like the lowest 750 feet. The temp goes from isothermal freezing look to 33-37F the last 750-1000 ft. That's crazy hard to believe.  |
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Post by TK on Jan 13, 2022 22:43:49 GMT -6
Safe travels Chris! Hour 33 on GFS is also snow looking at the sounding. And mid 30 dBZ’s. Also, H5 is unreal looking as system moves through. Definitely A different look than what we are used to. Unfortunately it shows rain for Belleville. That's like the lowest 750 feet. The temp goes from isothermal freezing look to 33-37F the last 750-1000 ft. That's crazy hard to believe. Hey Friv - Should we be worried singing in the rain? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 22:44:31 GMT -6
Nothing better than watching you family nuts, drinking adult beverages and watching the Blues win. I have had the honor of meeting Friv in person and he is as beautiful on the inside as on the outside. BTW - he looks like Tom Cruise...Love you Friv! Thanks man, love you too. You are the one with compassion, integrity, and honor. I can't make a prediction but you are in a solid spot to potentially get a 6" brick of snow |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 22:48:05 GMT -6
Unfortunately it shows rain for Belleville. That's like the lowest 750 feet. The temp goes from isothermal freezing look to 33-37F the last 750-1000 ft. That's crazy hard to believe. Hey Friv - Should we be worried singing in the rain? The reality is 20 years ago models struggled so much worse with this. And would totally under play dynamical cooling and we would get snow when they first said rain. However today the models have been much better with these types of situations....we have had a handful of the system's the last 10 years where we expected the model to be slightly wrong and we would get snow instead of rain but usually turns out the models right and it doesn't change over nearest fast and we would all love it too Because this system is a monster I'm talkin straight beast. Has this thing drops from Nebraska to Kansas to Oklahoma to Texas.... It will be strengthening and deepening and slowing the entire time. There's potential that right through the central part of the metro and within 50 miles of a river on each side there will be 10 hours straight of heavy snow. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 22:49:01 GMT -6
Good Night guys, lets get rest as we have our all nighter tomorrow night lol. Seriously thank you for tolerating me tonight and giving me a reality check.
Talk to you guys tomorrow.
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Post by TK on Jan 13, 2022 22:50:46 GMT -6
Nothing better than watching you family nuts, drinking adult beverages and watching the Blues win. I have had the honor of meeting Friv in person and he is as beautiful on the inside as on the outside. BTW - he looks like Tom Cruise...Love you Friv! Thanks man, love you too. You are the one with compassion, integrity, and honor. I can't make a prediction but you are in a solid spot to potentially get a 6" brick of snow Wow - Wasn't expecting that...I remember you saying to me we usually get jackpotted more than most in the Metro which usually has been the case- Hope it verifies again... |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 23:04:50 GMT -6
Yeah, Friv...you can see it putting on the brakes and starting to pivot even on the surface chart...that slows the exit of the Fgen forcing and actually strengthens it for a while looking at 700/850mb charts. Snow rates should be good under that band. It's so rare here. We deserve be this. The 03Z rap is perfect has 150 mile wide band of incredible lift a line along the Mississippi River tomorrow evening. it's also starting to show the better dynamic cooling we would expect. For Belleville at 8/9pm. That's a near perfect HEAVY WET SNOW COLUMN.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2022 23:07:40 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 23:13:59 GMT -6
Models may be hanging up the front a bit too much...seems like the column should cool but the model sees rain. The strongly digging trof and cooling mid-level temps argue for a quick changeover as does the dynamics and snow rates. The more I look at this, the more I think this is a full blown snow storm...it's a clipper on steroids. This thing even has a small atmospheric river flowing into it emanating from the cut-off energy off Baja(-EPO). It's got plenty of moisture in tow and the energy involved is tremendous with such a wound up, digging wave. It's possible models are selling this short...it just looks so weird on the models to see the heavy snow band up in IA just fall apart down the river valley when the storm is just getting going and it's mostly during night hours for us. The surface is definitely warmer in our region but that won't matter if we get hours of heavy snow. I think there's decent potential for 6"+ for parts of the area, probably favoring NE MO down into the N/W Metro. S/W counties may get some mixing on the front end but you guys will get a good snow from this and maybe some enhancement from the developing TROWAL. I still like 2-4" on average...but spots to 6"+ possible if the banding parks out.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 23:43:34 GMT -6
You crack me up. Never fails. Neither do you Look, I have TONS of respect for you. It’s for that very reason that I point out the differences in the way you post. You are one of the smartest casters on this forum. But it’s the quick throwing in the !Drying Cloth! too early rants that put everyone on edge because so many have faith in your experience, time and science you put into your analysis. This forum wouldn’t be the same without you. Maybe I come across as a prick and I apologize if you feel that way. But it’s not my intention to be a prick. It’s just my way of telling you to take a step back, take a deep breath and think before posting a soap box after a few negative model prints. Like always, STL will always be on that hairline gradient of all or nothing. Just know that I respect you and have appreciated your analysis for quite a while. You’re a great person and I only mean the best. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2022 1:33:07 GMT -6
The 06z HRRR and RAP continue to show a rather quick changeover to snow which is a good sign. With the low level flow staying out of the east I have a hard time seeing the warm layer at the surface putting up much of a fight when the better lift moves overhead. It’s not like we’re advecting in warmer/moisture air.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 14, 2022 2:04:14 GMT -6
Lack of any advisories/watches from NWS in the area shows the current confidence of this storm. Lol
Probably wanted to get the 06z data in first.
Don't blame em.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 2:31:04 GMT -6
The 06z HRRR and RAP continue to show a rather quick changeover to snow which is a good sign. With the low level flow staying out of the east I have a hard time seeing the warm layer at the surface putting up much of a fight when the better lift moves overhead. It’s not like we’re advecting in warmer/moisture air. Great, the two NAMs are great. Except the hires is 70% rain. Like why God?? Otherwise they both have almost 1.0" of QPF. The hires name has the snow line 125 miles North of STL for the entire first push of frontal forcing |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 2:33:32 GMT -6
Look, I have TONS of respect for you. It’s for that very reason that I point out the differences in the way you post. You are one of the smartest casters on this forum. But it’s the quick throwing in the !Drying Cloth! too early rants that put everyone on edge because so many have faith in your experience, time and science you put into your analysis. This forum wouldn’t be the same without you. Maybe I come across as a prick and I apologize if you feel that way. But it’s not my intention to be a prick. It’s just my way of telling you to take a step back, take a deep breath and think before posting a soap box after a few negative model prints. Like always, STL will always be on that hairline gradient of all or nothing. Just know that I respect you and have appreciated your analysis for quite a while. You’re a great person and I only mean the best. It's late and In appreciate this post. I do get some serious complaining/whining when things get hairy. Let's hope tomorrow evening is like Jan 12th 2019 |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 2:36:21 GMT -6
The euro is 75% rain as well.
This is making me sick.
The ukmet is 90% rain and higher QPF than earlier.
Both gems are west and borderline like 1-3" verbatim.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 2:44:57 GMT -6
The 06z HRRR and RAP continue to show a rather quick changeover to snow which is a good sign. With the low level flow staying out of the east I have a hard time seeing the warm layer at the surface putting up much of a fight when the better lift moves overhead. It’s not like we’re advecting in warmer/moisture air. Those two are perfect. Please God make that be true |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 5:50:25 GMT -6
Nws is saying 3 to 7 in metro on weather radio. So we will see. Good morning guys. It is chilly this morning at 29 at the homestead
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2022 5:57:18 GMT -6
Spot forecast for Mascoutah says 3 to 6. We will see. Have a great day all and dont sweat the small stuff. Life is WAY too short to worry about stuff we have zero control over. Safe travels Chris.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 14, 2022 6:04:31 GMT -6
3"-7" seems like a pretty big spread. Years of watching this stuff makes me suspect most of us will end up around three or four inches unless you end up in the bonus band. Here's to staying out of the rain!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 6:09:38 GMT -6
Thats what I thougt PBC but I guess that shows the uncertainty in the metro,its definately a solid advisory but there is room for higher amounts but that will be a nowcast situation. I just hope we dont warm up much above 42 today and we can get that east wind kicking for dry air for wet bulbing
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 6:44:03 GMT -6
SREF shows a mean of around .65 QPF and 4”. Shows about 2.5 hours of rain.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 6:51:43 GMT -6
Cardsweather thats not bad, as im assuming when its rain its just light rain as the heavy returns is what will kick it to snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 6:54:04 GMT -6
I really get the feeling some of these models are holding up the freezing line too far NE for too long. The warm air is shallow and the isothermal layer is skewing the thickness-derived p-type calculations. The 850mb charts are telling...the zero line crashes SW when the stronger lift moves in but the 130dm thickness line holds. I just don't think rain is going to eat into this like the warmer models show. The short range models look awesome with hours of heavy snow this evening into tomorrow AM. Buckle up!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 7:06:42 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 7:10:14 GMT -6
Models seem to be steadily increasing QPF output...this thing is looking locked and loaded.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 7:17:22 GMT -6
Upstream radar looks great...HUGE snow shield for a clipper with a tightly wound shortwave driving it and a comma head starting to develop.
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