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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 12, 2022 23:35:24 GMT -6
So have you heard? There is a little snow in the forecast Friday night into Saturday. It looks like it will start with a mix of rain and snow Friday night and then change to all snow after midnight. Snow will gradually taper off from north to south early Saturday afternoon. So how much? I get that question more than anyother...second only to how much in my backyard (I can't answer that question right now) Rather than getting into specific snowfall bands (1-2, 2-4, 4-6, etc) lets approach this from a different angle today. Let's look at the probability of meeting/exceeding 2 inches and 4 inches. Current trends show a good portion of the viewing area has a 50-60% chance of getting 2 or more inches. However, when you increase that threshold to 4+ inches the probabilites go way down. So the message here is that based on the latest data... a good first forecast is that most in our region should see about 2-3 inches out of this system. There are still many twists and turns possible for this system... and maybe even suprises. The core energy is still just off the Canadian coast and has not been fully sampled by the observing network. That will happen tomorrow and give us a more solid look at both where this system will track and how much moisture it may bring with it.   |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 12, 2022 23:43:11 GMT -6
Great job with the post on FB, Chris. Turn off comments so people stop asking questions.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 0:19:46 GMT -6
Euro is showing some decent QPF, but it seems low ratios and possibly mixing at the onset keep snow totals in check  |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 0:42:21 GMT -6
Great job with the post on FB, Chris. Turn off comments so people stop asking questions. Facebook is there for a reason. People will ask questions and it will be clarified. If Chris turns off comments, all that does is bring about more negativity. It’s great what Chris is doing spreading accurate predictions and questions should be welcomed |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 0:46:30 GMT -6
Euro is showing some decent QPF, but it seems low ratios and possibly mixing at the onset keep snow totals in check Ugh, the word mix makes me cringe. Let’s just hope sleet isn’t a big factor. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 1:11:18 GMT -6
Euro is showing some decent QPF, but it seems low ratios and possibly mixing at the onset keep snow totals in check Ugh, the word mix makes me cringe. Let’s just hope sleet isn’t a big factor. It won't be. He is referring to rain. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2022 1:12:50 GMT -6
Yeah, this should a pretty clean rain to snow transition... and rain should not last very long.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 1:15:18 GMT -6
Euro is showing some decent QPF, but it seems low ratios and possibly mixing at the onset keep snow totals in check The euro goes nuclear with this system after it passes us and nearly stalls out. On a solid note the 00Z Canadian ensemble mean has trended wetter for the 3rd run in a row. Bringing the 0.5" QPF line very close to the river. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 1:18:15 GMT -6
Euro H5  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 13, 2022 1:51:45 GMT -6
Ya I think it's a no brainer wherever this thing pivots and possibly stalls out during that time before scooting off to the Northeast. Will see some hefty snow totals. Just wish it would be over our area.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 13, 2022 4:41:32 GMT -6
Is it me or does it seem like the precip to the north is further west then what was forecasted for this morning? I thought it was suppose to ride down the Mississippi on the east side of the river.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2022 5:55:17 GMT -6
There still is the donut hole on the GFS….. and I could throw a rock and hit it …….that really needs to go away lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 6:26:47 GMT -6
Is it me or does it seem like the precip to the north is further west then what was forecasted for this morning? I thought it was suppose to ride down the Mississippi on the east side of the river. It does seem a bit further right of the forecast track. Might bring some graupel or sleet on the leading edge but mid-level temps are a bit warm for snow...should be mostly rain. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 13, 2022 6:30:17 GMT -6
Is it me or does it seem like the precip to the north is further west then what was forecasted for this morning? I thought it was suppose to ride down the Mississippi on the east side of the river. It does seem a bit further right of the forecast track. Might bring some graupel or sleet on the leading edge but mid-level temps are a bit warm for snow...should be mostly rain. Just had light shower/sprinkles here. Temp at 37° this morning. The placement just looked weird this morning, wasn’t expecting to see it on this side of the river. Had some things outside that couldn’t/shouldn’t get. Good thing I can’t sleep past 3:30am anymore. 😂 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 6:37:53 GMT -6
We definitely want to see a slight E/NE shift in the track...the models that are further SW barely get the mid-level ridge inflection past the river which isn't good. If the 700/500mb low tracks through central KS, that's not ideal for us.
That said, the WAA wing still looks good for a few inches in the Metro and West of the river. That may taper to an inch or two on the IL side if dry air eats into the precip. An easterly shift would help a lot in that aspect.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 6:39:27 GMT -6
I agree River points west looks great, illinois side definately needs to worry bout dry air. I still feel 2 to 4 area wide looks good however
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2022 6:40:43 GMT -6
We definitely want to see a slight E/NE shift in the track...the models that are further SW barely get the mid-level ridge inflection past the river which isn't good. If the 700/500mb low tracks through central KS, that's not ideal for us. That said, the WAA wing still looks good for a few inches in the Metro and West of the river. That may taper to an inch or two on the IL side if dry air eats into the precip. An easterly shift would help a lot in that aspect. Do you think there is a chance this shifts east at all? |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 6:42:26 GMT -6
Personally I feel like models will shift east at least 20 to 40 miles last minute.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 6:43:45 GMT -6
I would definitely like a small shift East a little
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 6:48:11 GMT -6
We definitely want to see a slight E/NE shift in the track...the models that are further SW barely get the mid-level ridge inflection past the river which isn't good. If the 700/500mb low tracks through central KS, that's not ideal for us. That said, the WAA wing still looks good for a few inches in the Metro and West of the river. That may taper to an inch or two on the IL side if dry air eats into the precip. An easterly shift would help a lot in that aspect. Do you think there is a chance this shifts east at all? You would expect a NE shift with a clipper like this but the transfer of energy/phasing makes it tricky to nail down the track. Hopefully with the better sampling as the system comes ashore models will lock onto a better consensus. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 6:49:10 GMT -6
The GFS and NAM are definitely are best bet solutions the are on the table right now. It seems the models have changed the trough orientation a little and are warmer at the onset. It looks like we are going to see some real slop at jump, then likely several hours of heavy wet snow transitioning to a few hours of drier moderate snow. We will probably see 6-10" fall. And on the ground have half of that. The NAM is a beaut' Clark....   ITS TIME TO.... LOCK IT IN |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 6:49:55 GMT -6
I agree River points west looks great, illinois side definately needs to worry bout dry air. I still feel 2 to 4 area wide looks good however Dry air eh??? |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 13, 2022 6:54:22 GMT -6
Great job with the post on FB, Chris. Turn off comments so people stop asking questions. Facebook is there for a reason. People will ask questions and it will be clarified. If Chris turns off comments, all that does is bring about more negativity. It’s great what Chris is doing spreading accurate predictions and questions should be welcomed I was being snarky because inevitably, “how much am I going to get?” Will be asked. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 7:06:18 GMT -6
Sleet rain mix, temp 34 in st.peters
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 7:12:07 GMT -6
I'm being snarky because it sounds like Starkey maybe I should just be a STARR.
The 06Z GFS ensemble mean gives the entire metro 0.5"+ QPF.
also PWATS on every model that has them are running 25-50% above normal for this time of year.
Hardly "dry air" problems.
Evaporational cooling saves us from singing half the QPF away in the rain.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 13, 2022 7:49:30 GMT -6
I definitely need an east shift for over here. I'll have the most dry air problems out of anyone in the viewing area if the current track holds.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 7:49:40 GMT -6
I'm being snarky because it sounds like Starkey maybe I should just be a STARR. The 06Z GFS ensemble mean gives the entire metro 0.5"+ QPF. also PWATS on every model that has them are running 25-50% above normal for this time of year. Hardly "dry air" problems. Evaporational cooling saves us from singing half the QPF away in the rain. The words of my synoptic met professor ring strongly here..."never underestimate the NE wind" I don't like that sharp gradient IMBY...not one bit |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Jan 13, 2022 7:53:02 GMT -6
Will system be fully sampled for the 12z runs
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 8:06:20 GMT -6
Composite radar had returns over area as early as sunrise tomorrow morning. Obviously will be virga but thought that was interesting.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 8:07:33 GMT -6
I'm being snarky because it sounds like Starkey maybe I should just be a STARR. The 06Z GFS ensemble mean gives the entire metro 0.5"+ QPF. also PWATS on every model that has them are running 25-50% above normal for this time of year. Hardly "dry air" problems. Evaporational cooling saves us from singing half the QPF away in the rain. The words of my synoptic met professor ring strongly here..."never underestimate the NE wind" I don't like that sharp gradient IMBY...not one bit We must've had the same synoptic met professor! |
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