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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 14, 2022 20:10:33 GMT -6
Singing in the rain @ West Belleville, IL
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 14, 2022 20:10:48 GMT -6
Still rain in Ballwin. Boo.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2022 20:11:06 GMT -6
It’s good to see the Illinois side change over , it was always supposed to change over from north east to the south west, everything is still on track if it’s still raining at midnight than yeah maybe a problem. It should be changed over in the metro in the next couple hours
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 14, 2022 20:12:04 GMT -6
SPC site- click on forecast tools and winter weather
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 20:13:36 GMT -6
Is there a site that tracks the critical thickness? |
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Post by WeatherLes on Jan 14, 2022 20:13:55 GMT -6
Temp 34.2
Dew point 33.7
Rain .05
Humidity 98%
High today was 43.
Still waiting for change over. My neighbor keeps giving me sh-t saying it’s all going to be rain.
Ambient weather station Model 2902c
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 20:14:27 GMT -6
The nams keeps us rain until midnight I'm down to 32.7F. |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 20:15:08 GMT -6
A few flakes are mixing in - O'Fallon
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Post by amstilost on Jan 14, 2022 20:16:28 GMT -6
Is there a site that tracks the critical thickness? This is from Storm Prediction Center. Critical ThicknessesHopefully this opens to the Critical Thickness page I was on. If not pull up Mesoanalysis tab then look under Winter Weather tab near the top right of the map. |
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Jan 14, 2022 20:17:14 GMT -6
Could anyone explain how to read that? I believe he can see the changes in consistency of the radar returns that indicate the change over. In what he sent I beleive it is the whites vs the pinks. If I'm incorrect, someone can chime in. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 20:17:37 GMT -6
The nams keeps us rain until midnight I'm down to 32.7F. My stomach is in knots. I hate being on the far Eastern edge of the main lift. But I am happy it's already almost below freezing here. It being roughly 33F at the surface there must be a warm layer about to collapse |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2022 20:18:59 GMT -6
The lightest misty rain...
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 14, 2022 20:19:28 GMT -6
It's been raining for a while here in silex.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 20:20:37 GMT -6
Is there a site that tracks the critical thickness? 5400 line correct? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2022 20:22:59 GMT -6
My stomach is in knots. I hate being on the far Eastern edge of the main lift. But I am happy it's already almost below freezing here. It being roughly 33F at the surface there must be a warm layer about to collapse Being on the very southern edge of where it SHOULD get cold enough for snow ain’t much better. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 14, 2022 20:24:04 GMT -6
Could anyone explain how to read that? I believe he can see the changes in consistency of the radar returns that indicate the change over. In what he sent I beleive it is the whites vs the pinks. If I'm incorrect, someone can chime in. The rain at the surface is all the multicolor (mixing of color) radar return. There's maybe some snow mixing in right on the transition line between mixing of color returns and one solid dark color returns. Where it's snow at the surface is the solid dark pink (same color for the most part) radar returns. This is where the warm wedge at 850mb to 900mb has gone away! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 20:25:07 GMT -6
Bright banding donut on radar definitely starting to contract...the warm layer is starting to loose the battle for sure. Patience, young grasshoppers!
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Post by amstilost on Jan 14, 2022 20:26:06 GMT -6
Yes, I copied these off the Question Mark symbol next to Critical Thickness tab 1000-500 mb (5400 m) 1000-700 mb (2840 m) 1000-850 mb (1300 m) 850-700 mb (1540 m) |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 14, 2022 20:28:10 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2022 20:30:44 GMT -6
Bright banding donut on radar definitely starting to contract...the warm layer is starting to loose the battle for sure. Patience, young grasshoppers! Ya the melt layer on CC looks to be lowering. Should be right on track for the 8-10pm switchover the AFD mentioned |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 14, 2022 20:31:54 GMT -6
35* now but with moderate rain 7 miles west of De Soto. Just sucks that we are losing some qpf to rain.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 20:33:53 GMT -6
That's the one most often used. I like to use the 1300 line when we're looking for snow when temps are around freezing at the surface. Or even the 2840. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 14, 2022 20:36:16 GMT -6
That's the one most often used. I like to use the 1300 line when we're looking for snow when temps are around freezing at the surface. So what is your prediction of when we see flakes down this way? |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 20:41:27 GMT -6
That's the one most often used. I like to use the 1300 line when we're looking for snow when temps are around freezing at the surface. So what is your prediction of when we see flakes down this way? Once the heavier precip starts, not long after. We need to get it to sneak over here a few miles, though. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 20:42:14 GMT -6
Light snow slowly picking up intensity and 32*. The E/NE wind has picked up a bit too.
Edit: Gravel driveway starting to turn white.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 14, 2022 20:43:13 GMT -6
My stomach is in knots. I hate being on the far Eastern edge of the main lift. But I am happy it's already almost below freezing here. It being roughly 33F at the surface there must be a warm layer about to collapse Gotta be. I'm what, 15mi from you? Haven't had a drop of rain yet, just light sleet so far. 33F |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 20:43:26 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2022 20:45:26 GMT -6
well the sound of the rain falling while i watch tv is making me ill
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 20:47:16 GMT -6
Radar shows the mesoband is slowly working to the East towards the river...everyone on the IL side should get the goods soon enough. This is looking SO GOOD for the Metro and points 30-50mi either side of the river.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 20:47:41 GMT -6
well the sound of the rain falling while i watch tv is making me ill I started with a glass of Redbreast 15 year tonight. It helps. |
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