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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 7:20:19 GMT -6
12Z hrrr still has quick changeover
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 7:21:22 GMT -6
Well, the rain to start definitely means roads will not be in good shape in morning considering pre-treatments may just wash away.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2022 7:21:51 GMT -6
Upstream radar looks great...HUGE snow shield for a clipper with a tightly wound shortwave driving it and a comma head starting to develop. The hires models keep trending West. Hopefully they are a bit to much with that |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 14, 2022 7:23:50 GMT -6
With such a wet snow pretreatment wouldn’t help anyhow IMO. Plus precip will still be falling through midday so roads will be slushy through the day. Once precip stops I personally anticipate my lots to clean up pretty good.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 7:24:32 GMT -6
I notice that too friv. Hope its not a trend and just model noise, as i feel the rap is a good compromise.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2022 7:31:35 GMT -6
HRRR is initialized a bit west of what is actually occurring right now, so that's good.
You can already see the fgen band defining itself through Des Moines. Looks to be aiming itself right down the MS river.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 14, 2022 7:38:34 GMT -6
So who is our should be our resident leader when Chris is gone to be the voice of reason and keep the Corner calm during a snow storm?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 7:47:39 GMT -6
Upstream radar looks great...HUGE snow shield for a clipper with a tightly wound shortwave driving it and a comma head starting to develop. The hires models keep trending West. Hopefully they are a bit to much with that This thing is coming right down the river, baby! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2022 7:55:13 GMT -6
NAM is colder and snow at the beginning..not rain..excellent!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2022 7:56:48 GMT -6
12z NAM, HRRR and RAP all look like quick changeovers to snow
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 7:58:51 GMT -6
While all looks good, I worry a bit models have trended too far west. What are the pros thoughts. Did the models over correct west or what?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 14, 2022 8:00:25 GMT -6
So who is our should be our resident leader when Chris is gone to be the voice of reason and keep the Corner calm during a snow storm? I am a skilled multi-tasker! |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 8:17:09 GMT -6
So who is our should be our resident leader when Chris is gone to be the voice of reason and keep the Corner calm during a snow storm? 99...
I keeeed. We've all been around long enough that we should just about know the ins and outs of most of the members--their tendencies, good and bad traits, etc. I've been trying to get people to just scroll past posts that "trigger" them for YEARS, but it doesn't always work. You really have two options. Ignore it or reply to it, which is a 100% way to guarantee that it'll get worse.
My $0.02...free of charge.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 8:22:10 GMT -6
Hi res nam and NAM's QPF output is less than half inch in immediate metro. Would be about 2". Closer to 3 farther west you go.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2022 8:23:29 GMT -6
Yep both NAM s went way down on qpf
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 8:24:07 GMT -6
I am not liking the trends with qpf at all
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2022 8:30:32 GMT -6
remember, NAM is always high on QPF until closer to the event. Let's see what the other models show
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 8:34:38 GMT -6
Pretty much every 12z run so far (HRW, HRRR, NAM) are all right around .4-.5.
Don't look at the FV3. Keeps us at 40 and rainy all night.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 8:40:07 GMT -6
I am not liking the trends with qpf at all Steady As She Goes |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 14, 2022 8:44:24 GMT -6
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 14, 2022 8:45:18 GMT -6
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 14, 2022 8:46:02 GMT -6
 One of the comments 🤣 |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 8:59:19 GMT -6
I just noticed this. That's quite remarkable...or you need some sort of intervention. I'm not sure which.
Snowman99 Moderator ***** Ban Hammer Posts: 10,009
Edit: You, too...
Snowstorm920
Weather God
*****
Arnold, Mo
Posts: 9,985
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2022 9:01:54 GMT -6
I just noticed this. That's quite remarkable...or you need some sort of intervention. I'm not sure which.
Snowman99 Moderator ***** Ban Hammer Posts: 10,009
Edit: You, too...
Snowstorm920
Weather God
*****
Arnold, Mo
Posts: 9,985
Time for a 10k post party! |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 9:09:22 GMT -6
I do not like how quick it is warming up today, already 37 at lambert and I have sun in st.peters through the clouds and 38
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Post by jeepers on Jan 14, 2022 9:09:31 GMT -6
Adult beverage during a snowstorm with Snowman party hats, while watching hamsters pile on the snow table….Party!
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 9:11:28 GMT -6
West of river is definitely in better shape.
I think 3-5 is a good call with 2-3 east of river. So, steady as she goes.
Here's hoping for a surprise.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 9:18:35 GMT -6
Speaking of surprises, when was the last time we've really overperformed. Like I'm talking forecasted for 2-4 and we get 7 or 8?? 82???
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 9:19:06 GMT -6
Definitely a little west jog with the band placement on the short range hi-res models but it may just be a blip or wobble. Radar and satellite trends look very good for the river valley and points 50mi either side or so. Everything still appears to be a go for much of the region.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 9:20:17 GMT -6
Speaking of surprises, when was the last time we've really overperformed. Like I'm talking forecasted for 2-4 and we get 7 or 8?? 82??? I think this system has good potential to overachieve, even with the marginal surface temps. That Fgen band should get pretty intense at times. |
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