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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 9:21:06 GMT -6
WAA was alive and well on the drive to work this morning. Left the house at 28*. Temp steadily rose to 34*-35* on the way in, which included some haze/fog.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2022 9:22:27 GMT -6
I just noticed this. That's quite remarkable...or you need some sort of intervention. I'm not sure which.
Snowman99 Moderator ***** Ban Hammer Posts: 10,009
Edit: You, too...
Snowstorm920
Weather God
*****
Arnold, Mo
Posts: 9,985
Hi, my name is snowstorm920 and I have a weather addiction |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 9:31:08 GMT -6
I just noticed this. That's quite remarkable...or you need some sort of intervention. I'm not sure which.
Snowman99 Moderator ***** Ban Hammer Posts: 10,009
Edit: You, too...
Snowstorm920
Weather God
*****
Arnold, Mo
Posts: 9,985
Hi, my name is snowstorm920 and I have a weather addiction 😆😆😆 |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 9:36:29 GMT -6
Speaking of surprises, when was the last time we've really overperformed. Like I'm talking forecasted for 2-4 and we get 7 or 8?? 82??? When was the last time we had a major bust where we were projected to get 6+ and would up with nothing? Not saying we’ll get half a foot with this one but I do remember back in ‘07-‘08 when we had a storm where the onset was supposed to be sleet and quickly changeover. It never did and became a sleet nightmare. Anyone remember that doozy? Edit** Think it was actually ‘06 or ‘07 Edit II *** But let’s not talk about busts. Let’s go back to ‘82! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2022 9:37:49 GMT -6
I’m at 37* in Perryville. Egh.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2022 9:39:56 GMT -6
It has gotten foggy here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2022 9:42:53 GMT -6
12z NAM looks solid along and W of the river...not really any significant changes to note with it. Definitely supports near-warning level snowfall across a pretty good swath. Would not be surprised to see the WSW expanded further SE with the next update.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2022 9:44:23 GMT -6
Latest HRRRR looks pretty good for the metro. Just clicking through the soundings, hours 14-18 (end of the run) show strong lift through the DGZ with the column slowly cooling. I really don't see this being rain for very long. Wet bulb temps for all but the lowest 1k feet or so are at or below freezing. Once it starts going and the column gets saturated, big flakes should break through pretty easily
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 9:46:49 GMT -6
Look at all that radar juice.. It’s a beaut Clark!  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2022 9:47:40 GMT -6
GFS is still beefy. Has some insanely heavy snow at daybreak.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2022 9:47:52 GMT -6
**ATTENTION** Snowstorm 920 you have a direct message. Please check.  |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 14, 2022 9:51:01 GMT -6
The morning news said they’ve treated the roads with brine, then they’ll wait until it starts changing over to snow to put down salt. In combination with the rain & wet roads, this will form an additional brine. Doesn’t any brine get washed away with the rain today?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 9:53:42 GMT -6
What would qualify on NWS clock as “late afternoon”. 3pm? |
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
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Post by padlur on Jan 14, 2022 9:54:51 GMT -6
So the question is...just how much of a jinx would it be to dust off and de-summerize the snowblower?
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 9:56:10 GMT -6
Not sure a snowblower will work too well with this storm with out it clogging up
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Post by REB on Jan 14, 2022 9:59:00 GMT -6
I am NOT putting out my snow measuring board. I want SNOW.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 14, 2022 10:08:36 GMT -6
I am NOT putting out my snow measuring board. I want SNOW. Same should go for Tilawn. Do NOT prep trucks and call in staff. Wait till it's coming down hard and heavy. Just wing it. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2022 10:15:38 GMT -6
up to 41 at Lambert..rose 7 degrees the last 2 hours with mostly cloudy skies. Dew of 33. Wetbulb in mid 30's. I mean wtf..
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2022 10:17:19 GMT -6
I agree snowman, we likely may get to 45 to 50 today at this rate, this storm may not have enough forcing to get us cold enough on the front end, it is definately a moist east wind, not a dry at the surface
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Post by amstilost on Jan 14, 2022 10:22:31 GMT -6
I am sitting at 42* with milky sunshine 7 miles west of De Soto.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 10:26:26 GMT -6
O’Fallon - Spiked to 39 followed by a quick drop to 37. Two degree drop in 10 minutes. 😳
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2022 10:26:51 GMT -6
GFS illustrates the best case scenario for everyone with the quick changeover and intense rates.
I'll echo what others said...I have concerns with the current sunshine and temp. rise.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 14, 2022 10:27:31 GMT -6
Overcast and 32. RH 87%
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2022 10:28:43 GMT -6
37-38 wentzville to st Charles, the clouds rolled in the last 30 minutes, very cloudy now should keep temps from going up much more
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 14, 2022 10:31:52 GMT -6
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 10:40:30 GMT -6
Observations from the GFS -
Hour 18 shows the 540 line south of metro, sounding says snow, but the precip depiction shows rain. Weird?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2022 10:44:12 GMT -6
Observations from the GFS - Hour 18 shows the 540 line south of metro, sounding says snow, but the precip depiction shows rain. Weird? Those precipitation depiction charts can act funny at times in borderline setups. That’s why it’s always a good idea to look at the soundings. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 14, 2022 10:44:24 GMT -6
I am NOT putting out my snow measuring board. I want SNOW. Same should go for Tilawn. Do NOT prep trucks and call in staff. Wait till it's coming down hard and heavy. Just wing it. To late......no staff to call in other then my 2 sons to shovel sidewalks. Looking forward to cutting my schedule by 2/3rds or quitting snow removal all together for next season. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2022 10:46:54 GMT -6
We're going to have a "warm" lower couple thousand feet for a few hours. I don't think that's going to be an issue with the precip rates. If you just look at the output from the models, they're confused...at best. They'll show 37-38-39 and snow as the best guess, but rain on the pretty pictures. This isn't pulling warm air into the mid levels.
We're good. Trust my completely non-scientific, just lived here for a few decades (ok, almost 5), hunch.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 10:48:24 GMT -6
Observations from the GFS - Hour 18 shows the 540 line south of metro, sounding says snow, but the precip depiction shows rain. Weird? Those precipitation depiction charts can act funny at times in borderline setups. That’s why it’s always a good idea to look at the soundings. The follow-up question: when the model is spitting out snow amounts, does it look at sounding or the precip depiction to calculate? |
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