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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 5, 2018 9:23:13 GMT -6
50ish is the magnitude of warmth i had in mind...perhaps a day where it falls back to 30s or 40 and back up to 50ish. any 60 plus wld be limited to transitional events such as just b4 frontal passage.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 5, 2018 9:26:33 GMT -6
and i think the warmup is more of a week to 10 days instead of a full 2 week period. seems like all is still on track with a cold stormy period setting in over the holiday period.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 5, 2018 9:45:25 GMT -6
GFS looks good for tomorrow.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 5, 2018 10:12:54 GMT -6
That's kinda what I thought, thanks Chris. The clipper could work either for or against the southern system... 1) The ridging ahead of the clipper could force the southern storm south... 2) The two phase more....ridging is overplayed....and overcome...allowing for more phasing...pulling the southern storm further north. if they would phase completely rapid deepening would probably be expected. Isn't that what happens with a few of the northeasters? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2018 10:26:06 GMT -6
GFS is better than the BS it crapped out at 6z, but still further south than what I would like to see. GEM on the other hand is holding its own and looks good for southern portions. We badly need the Euro to do what it did at 00z.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2018 10:37:13 GMT -6
Late next week looks stormy...
Definitely starts as rain in STL, but a strong and deepening low is capable of anything on the backside.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 5, 2018 10:46:24 GMT -6
Late next week looks stormy... Definitely starts as rain in STL, but a strong and deepening low is capable of anything on the backside. When is the last time we've had a legitimate rain to snow system where we've gotten a really good amount of snow? I honestly can't remember. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2018 10:52:09 GMT -6
Late next week looks stormy... Definitely starts as rain in STL, but a strong and deepening low is capable of anything on the backside. When is the last time we've had a legitimate rain to snow system where we've gotten a really good amount of snow? I honestly can't remember. December 13-14th 2018 |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 5, 2018 10:57:28 GMT -6
The most notable snowstorm in STL history was a rain-snow storm but I can't remember a good one in recent years.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 5, 2018 11:14:37 GMT -6
The most notable snowstorm in STL history was a rain-snow storm but I can't remember a good one in recent years. I don't know about where other folks were but where I was at there was a notable break between the rain and snow in 82. In fact, there was such a long break the National Weather Service started backing off on accumulations. We all know what happened once the snow started. I would love to see a radar loop of the 72-hour period starting on Thursday noon from that event. As I recall the radar for St.Louis got pretty quiet and then it exploded. I'm almost certain the first snowflakes I saw came from something that developed over us, not from something moved in. That trailing system, which it was, produced all snow in our area |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 5, 2018 11:49:32 GMT -6
Are there any concerns about ICE? Not four our area, but areas in southern MO, KY and VA? I see some other national weather maps with ICE on them but wasn't sure if there will be a huge ICE impact. I am asking for my mom who is in TN and will be driving back home from our house to Nashville. Thanks.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 5, 2018 12:07:52 GMT -6
EURO?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2018 12:28:23 GMT -6
It brings some snow to the southern counties. Not as good looking as last nights run |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 5, 2018 12:34:21 GMT -6
It's still pretty obvious models don't have a real good grasp on this storm yet with every run wavering back and forth. These fast moving shortwaves digging across Canada into the Lakes and NE US are giving them fits, along with the backside clipper interaction and phasing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2018 12:38:38 GMT -6
It's still pretty obvious models don't have a real good grasp on this storm yet with every run wavering back and forth. These fast moving shortwaves digging across Canada into the Lakes and NE US are giving them fits, along with the backside clipper interaction and phasing. That clipper interaction really is an interesting thing. Can’t really remember seeing something like that before. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 5, 2018 14:01:09 GMT -6
NAM looks real juicy for tomorrow.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2018 14:03:14 GMT -6
NAM looks real juicy for tomorrow. Probably too warm for some of us but I'd bet northern and central counties get an inch maybe two. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 5, 2018 14:16:34 GMT -6
Upper air temps look great. I think most areas are in for a solid inch.
Another thing to note here is that this will be hitting northern areas at morning rush. Could be a bit dicey. WWA wouldn't be a horrible idea.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 5, 2018 14:21:21 GMT -6
18z's are going to come north. Calling it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2018 14:26:27 GMT -6
Upper air temps look great. I think most areas are in for a solid inch. Another thing to note here is that this will be hitting northern areas at morning rush. Could be a bit dicey. WWA wouldn't be a horrible idea. Surface temps look marginal, but short range models are showing a beefy line of precep moving north to south across the area. Northern 2/3rds of the area stands a good chance of seeing some accumulations (D-2") |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 5, 2018 14:32:16 GMT -6
I'm shutting this thread down. It's tired and heavy. We need the smell of fresh material. Standby... I'll start with my snowfall map for tomorrow.
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