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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2018 18:01:36 GMT -6
Maybe I'm grasping at straws here but I suspect models are suffering from convective feedback...most of the runs that show the suppressed track have the SLP surrounded by a bullseye of high QPF/convection and that is typically a red flag. I don't think you're grasping at all. I know the HP is strong but that hiccup you see between when precip is breaking through in SW MO and when the shield stops then slides east again just doesn't make sense. Idk, still have that gut feeling. I won't deny that the strength of the ridge is concerning if you are rooting for snow around here...some runs have been blipping 1040+ across IA as the storm comes out. But if you look at the jet charts, the confluence and outbound jet is nearly in a perfect position for us which makes me think models are tracking the SLP too far S and not producing enough QPF in the cold sector with the mid-level system. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 4, 2018 18:07:00 GMT -6
Hit two areas of heavy snow coming into Mt Vernon on I64. First was hamsters. Highway partially covered. Second was shaker, but still heavy. Same thing. Overpasses are really tricky.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 4, 2018 18:10:26 GMT -6
Finally back to a nice coating...still snowing...likely not long though...I expect I’ll also wake up to 3 inches of grass.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 18:23:04 GMT -6
I don't think you're grasping at all. I know the HP is strong but that hiccup you see between when precip is breaking through in SW MO and when the shield stops then slides east again just doesn't make sense. Idk, still have that gut feeling. I won't deny that the strength of the ridge is concerning if you are rooting for snow around here...some runs have been blipping 1040+ across IA as the storm comes out. But if you look at the jet charts, the confluence and outbound jet is nearly in a perfect position for us which makes me think models are tracking the SLP too far S and not producing enough QPF in the cold sector with the mid-level system. Here is the 18z gfs compared to 18z yesterday at the same time. Pretty big difference   |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2018 18:29:07 GMT -6
I won't deny that the strength of the ridge is concerning if you are rooting for snow around here...some runs have been blipping 1040+ across IA as the storm comes out. But if you look at the jet charts, the confluence and outbound jet is nearly in a perfect position for us which makes me think models are tracking the SLP too far S and not producing enough QPF in the cold sector with the mid-level system. Here is the 18z gfs compared to 18z yesterday at the same time. Pretty big difference Yeah, that's significant for sure. We definitely want to see a slower moving bowling ball come out rather than a disorganized, semi-sheared shortwave. The seasonal trend can't be ignored, either. It's still plenty early to give up on this one. |
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Post by dschreib on Dec 4, 2018 18:46:52 GMT -6
70 was slow from 170 to 64. Some places had snow between the tracks. It was still snowing pretty hard on the MO side. Not much in IL. A few degrees would have been messy, considering traffic is bad enough that salt trucks couldn't do their thing. Could have been a huge "whoops".
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2018 19:04:59 GMT -6
70 was slow from 170 to 64. Some places had snow between the tracks. It was still snowing pretty hard on the MO side. Not much in IL. A few degrees would have been messy, considering traffic is bad enough that salt trucks couldn't do their thing. Could have been a huge "whoops". It really seemed like the river was the cut off between occasional mood flakes and white out showers for much of the day. Once they moved in though, they were impressive. We picked up about 3/4" between a few of them. |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 4, 2018 20:15:14 GMT -6
Woke up to a solid 1.5 in on my car top over here, maybe more...lol. I laid down at 2:30 and next to nothing, then got up at 6:00 and snow was stuck to everything. It must have come down quite hard, virtually no grass showing. A light to moderate snow is continuing.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 20:49:28 GMT -6
The OOZ NAM gives us a glimmer of hope for Saturday.
It's slower and more amplified.
It's also showing phasing earlier on.
With another powerful vorticity near the Canadian border.
This setup would bring snow to i70 South.
I really hope this works out.
It has 6-15" for Southern MO/IL potential.
It's moving so slowly as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2018 20:52:30 GMT -6
Closed 500mb low in SE New Mexico at hr 84 as well
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2018 20:55:13 GMT -6
The OOZ NAM gives us a glimmer of hope for Saturday. It's slower and more amplified. It's also showing phasing earlier on. With another powerful vorticity near the Canadian border. This setup would bring snow to i70 South. I really hope this works out. It has 6-15" for Southern MO/IL potential. It's moving so slowly as well. The euro has been consistently saying no. I hope it works out for you, but from somebody with no skin in the game, it looks like a long shot. Even the 18z gfs ensembles were only 6 out of 20. 30% odds is definitely as high as I would go unless you are in southwestern Missouri or closer to the bootheel. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2018 20:59:56 GMT -6
Comparing the 18z GFS and 00z NAM shows that the NAM is slower and stronger with the system than the GFS. Now the NAM isn't in its reliability window and has a tendency to amp things up to much. Interesting to note though
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 21:05:16 GMT -6
Comparing the 18z GFS and 00z NAM shows that the NAM is slower and stronger with the system than the GFS. Now the NAM isn't in its reliability window and has a tendency to amp things up to much. Interesting to note though We would need an even stronger more phased system. I am not saying I biasly think it could happen. But how many times have we seen being 5 days out dealing with phased systems and the system ends up: dramatically slower Stronger Quicker phase And consequently the designation zone ends up hundreds of miles further North? Way to many times. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 4, 2018 21:05:42 GMT -6
The OOZ NAM gives us a glimmer of hope for Saturday. It's slower and more amplified. It's also showing phasing earlier on. With another powerful vorticity near the Canadian border. This setup would bring snow to i70 South. I really hope this works out. It has 6-15" for Southern MO/IL potential. It's moving so slowly as well. My worry is the placement of that H to our north. Looks anchored. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Dec 4, 2018 21:35:00 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 4, 2018 21:36:43 GMT -6
Looking at the end of the NAM run... nice coupled jet streaks- anticyclonic jet lifting north while exiting and the southern stream becoming more cyclonic. In theory as the exiting jet lifts north I would think it would pull the southern stream north as well. Also how it interacts with clipper coming down  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 4, 2018 21:46:11 GMT -6
Gfs looks to be a bit slower holding the main vort back a bit through 48 hours. Hopefully this translates to something down the line...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 4, 2018 21:51:48 GMT -6
Have to say the NAM has done notably well so far this season...I don't usually trust it beyond h36 but it's done pretty well even at range this year for whatever reason.
That does look encouraging on the 00z run...you can see the shortwave beginning to lift in the last couple frames as the jetstreak rounds the base.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2018 22:01:34 GMT -6
Id call that GFS run an improvement. The 500 charts are tantalizingly close to a good snow for the metro
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 4, 2018 22:02:40 GMT -6
Honestly 500 mb looks perfect but gfs is still south but better. I am going to go out on a limb and say by the end of the day Thursday the southern half to 2 thirds of Missouri will be looking good
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 22:02:53 GMT -6
The gfs misses us. But there is hope.
The good news is that the models have trended colder on Thursday.
Gfs and nam are all snow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2018 22:05:48 GMT -6
If that 500 low could just come in a bit stronger that's right in our wheelhouse for a heavy snow event  |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 4, 2018 22:09:42 GMT -6
Gem is looking better as well
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 4, 2018 22:10:02 GMT -6
Yea it's an improvement for sure. Gem also still looks good for some of us.
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 4, 2018 22:10:53 GMT -6
Do we still think the big mid month 2 week warm up is going to happen? The temperatures on the 10-15 day outlooks don't really look too warm (30s/40s mainly for highs)
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 4, 2018 22:11:29 GMT -6
I like how the gfs and gem are holding onto the backside, even if it's a hair south of what we want it. This shows the potential for the upper low to pull together and linger. Which would also suggest a pull further north.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2018 22:14:20 GMT -6
If this one fails, at least the ggem has a Memphis low next week.
That's fun.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 4, 2018 22:14:56 GMT -6
The gfs misses us. But there is hope. The good news is that the models have trended colder on Thursday. Gfs and nam are all snow. I'm sure Marthasville to St. Peters will get another surprise 1-3 inches Thursday lol. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2018 22:15:27 GMT -6
I like how the gfs and gem are holding onto the backside, even if it's a hair south of what we want it. This shows the potential for the upper low to pull together and linger. Which would also suggest a pull further north. Looks like the GFS and GEM have some clipper energy diving into the backside of the system sunday
Maybe im just wanting to see something that isn't there, but im seeing alot of evidence this thing is going to come north
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 22:20:29 GMT -6
Both Gems have dry high ratio snow around daybreak.
Right through the heart of the metro tomorrow am.
FYI.
The precipitation Thursday is now lagging a bit more behind the front.
So sprinkles to a band of moderate snow.
Probably a solid 1-2".
Amazing pattern
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