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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 4, 2018 22:49:33 GMT -6
Snow is really coming down again. This last band that developed out of nowhere might just push me over 1/2”. Fingers crossed.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 23:13:40 GMT -6
The GEFS has 1-2" this weekend all the way up along the South side of i70 in MO.
With 2-3" reaching Union to Belleville.
As WSC said this is skewed with 25% of the ensemble members hitting the 44/64 corridor with a WINTER STORM WARNING level event.
About 25% more have 1-3" for the 44/64 corridor
And 50% have nothing.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 4, 2018 23:14:08 GMT -6
The GEFS has 1-2" this weekend all the way up along the South side of i70 in MO.
With 2-3" reaching Union to Belleville.
As WSC said this is skewed with 25% of the ensemble members hitting the 44/64 corridor with a WINTER STORM WARNING level event.
About 25% more have 1-3" for the 44/64 corridor
And 50% have nothing.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 4, 2018 23:23:30 GMT -6
Starting to see pattern hints coming past the Holidays with love from Japan/East Asia with a prolonged period of troughing starting around Japan and Korea/northeastern China next week and lasting for 7-10 days over there along with a possible (though small) chance of a late season Typhoon re-curvature off Taiwan and Japan toward the Solstice into Christmas Holiday. This should translate into a big dip of cold and more hardcore winter for New Years into at least mid January. Also can see hints of the Negative NAO/AO coming back about that time as well with the -EPO or at least neutral getting re-established. Long story short, whatever warming we get it's not gonna last more than a few days before the patter flips again. The persistence of the pattern has been amazing and almost unprecedented as Friv already mentioned.
Oh yes and can't forget about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event either showing up around Christmas which could be major and split and or displace the Polar Vortex. If everything comes together we could be seeing January 2014 all over again.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 4, 2018 23:27:10 GMT -6
Oh and Just for kicks the JMA (Japanese Model) has been onboard with a warning level snow event along and south of I-70 since the Saturday/Sunday system entered it's forecast range but a razor sharp gradient north of there with an almost immediate drop to nothing north of Columbia into Litchfield.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 4, 2018 23:32:02 GMT -6
Models have definitely been persistence so far about a mid-month storm which seems to fit the bill quite nicely. Liking the idea of a rain and or rain/storm hit followed by a possible thump of heavy snow as the low departs with some potential for at least another mid level accumulating event.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 4, 2018 23:34:03 GMT -6
Potential is there for accumulations with the Clipper Monday as it interacts with the departing upper level low from the weekend storm. Looks quite stout and might be an overachiever if it comes together. A big if of course at this range.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 4, 2018 23:38:45 GMT -6
If the Euro has any north nudge at all, that's key in itself. Even if it isn't a hit here.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 0:22:52 GMT -6
I'd say just looking at the H5/H85 Maps that the EURO has shifted quite a bit north this run. At the very least it wants to close off the 500MB low right over us with the deformational lift skimming the I-44/I-70 corridor.
The trends are good. Might be some life still in this one yet?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2018 0:22:55 GMT -6
Euro definitely came north a good bit. Still south of the metro though.
Edit: It actually brings some light snow into the area..on sunday
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 0:24:59 GMT -6
Euro definitely came north a good bit. Still south of the metro though All about progress. Plenty of time for things to catch up and shift. But the fact that it's shifting north is perhaps the best news we could hope fore short of a slam dunk. It means there's wiggle room. Net day or so's runs could be interesting. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2018 0:26:18 GMT -6
Euro dives the clipper into the system Sunday and brings snow to the metro
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2018 0:27:24 GMT -6
Has the 2 inch line up to st louis. That's interesting.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2018 0:29:44 GMT -6
Euro rapidly intensifies the clipper as it dives into the backside of the system. We might have something here
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2018 0:31:17 GMT -6
That is a weird thing the Euro shows, well, maybe not weird, but interesting. 920 is right, the clipper dives in and kinda merges with the southern storm right over us.We need that to happen further west I think.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2018 3:09:21 GMT -6
Euro ensembles look much better and are in agreement with the deterministic run
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 5, 2018 3:24:23 GMT -6
I am modwling my forecast after the GEM for the weekend as its pattern looks the most realistic. I think ridging will keep things dry in STL...with the focus over my far southern counties. Rolla to Chester and points south could get a nice snow...but VERY dry air over the I-70 corridor makes it unlikely it gets this far north. Keep in mind that some of the QPF model graphics are showing up this far is probably more a function of the models inability to resolve what will be a painfully tight gradient...where one side of a county may grt 4 or 5 inches... but the north side gets nothing...that kind of tight.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 5, 2018 3:30:29 GMT -6
But to be clear..I am still not throwing in the !Drying Cloth!..But I have to go with the most likely outcome...and as I see it..that is south of many of us
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2018 3:38:17 GMT -6
Lambert received 1.6" of snow yesterday. That brings the seasonal total to 6.8" not bad.
I received snow that melted on contact and watered the lawn.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2018 3:43:39 GMT -6
Chris do you think the clipper will/could interact with the system at all, like the Euro shows?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 5, 2018 5:32:49 GMT -6
Chris do you think the clipper will/could interact with the system at all, like the Euro shows? That clipper is a key player... but I doubt it will play out the way the Euro is showing right now... that just doesn't look natural. That doesn't mean it will not happen... but it just looks strange. I think an evolution somewhere between the GFS and GEM looks more natural. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 5, 2018 5:37:15 GMT -6
6Z Solutions are back to bone dry again and south. Pffh.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2018 6:08:45 GMT -6
Wtf. The euro comes north then the 6z Gfs pulls some crap like thet?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 5, 2018 6:12:42 GMT -6
That's kinda what I thought, thanks Chris.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 5, 2018 7:16:14 GMT -6
Nice and totally white here this morning. Too bad most, if not all of the snow will be lost today. I'll definitely enjoy what I have though. I may be wrong, but hasn't the 6z GFS been well south this whole time with the weekend system despite the subtle shifts in the on hour runs of the GFS and the bigger shift of the Euro? I know we are looking for steady trends to arise despite off hour vs. on hour, but it's something to keep in mind. I have a feeling the brunt of this one will indeed be south of the metro, but even a 1-3 inch type of event out of it would be fine. I feel we'll hit the big one at some point.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 5, 2018 8:22:23 GMT -6
That's kinda what I thought, thanks Chris. The clipper could work either for or against the southern system... 1) The ridging ahead of the clipper could force the southern storm south... 2) The two phase more....ridging is overplayed....and overcome...allowing for more phasing...pulling the southern storm further north. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 5, 2018 8:31:43 GMT -6
No sunshine yet. But I can tell the clouds are thinning here
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 5, 2018 8:38:19 GMT -6
Do we still think the big mid month 2 week warm up is going to happen? The temperatures on the 10-15 day outlooks don't really look too warm (30s/40s mainly for highs) Yes |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Dec 5, 2018 8:41:13 GMT -6
but how warm is "warm"? I'll take 50ish for 10 days or so, but I'm good on anymore of these upper-60's-and-muggy days. Blech. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 5, 2018 8:49:31 GMT -6
Well the nam stays south there at the end of its run. You would think how much the timing has been pushed back would benefit us.
Let's hope the gfs comes back to life at 12z and the Euro holds its run from last night. If the Euro hadn't done that I would be about ready to throw it in.
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