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Post by REB on Jul 6, 2024 6:03:48 GMT -6
Hey a little question if I can ask here. Is this considered a Holiday weekend since the 4th was on a Thursday. Depends on your contract. 🤣 |
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Post by REB on Jul 6, 2024 9:04:42 GMT -6
Absolutely had to mow. Dew point is 67. Not comfortable.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 6, 2024 9:15:01 GMT -6
Looks like Beryl's remnants has our name on them Tuesday into Thursday depending on which models you look at. Also we'll be on the northwest side which is where the models show the heaviest rains crossing including St. Louis Metro. Might be 3-5" type of event at this point.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 6, 2024 10:15:54 GMT -6
Looks like Beryl's remnants has our name on them Tuesday into Thursday depending on which models you look at. Also we'll be on the northwest side which is where the models show the heaviest rains crossing including St. Louis Metro. Might be 3-5" type of event at this point. Between the rain we just had and that our soil moisture should be in good shape until the end of July or first of August. Should also provide seed moisture for afternoon thunderstorms. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 6, 2024 10:30:02 GMT -6
Looks like Beryl's remnants has our name on them Tuesday into Thursday depending on which models you look at. Also we'll be on the northwest side which is where the models show the heaviest rains crossing including St. Louis Metro. Might be 3-5" type of event at this point. I'm still not convinced that it will make it that far north...the EURO is pretty bullish and the GFS gets the weak remnants/moisture plume in here after being stuck in no mans land between ridges but if it misses the phase with the N stream shortwave it will likely just drift along across the S Ozarks. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 6, 2024 11:35:39 GMT -6
I've been watching these new AI versions of Euro,GFS and they have been very wet. I need to dig into these more to see what they are all about.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 6, 2024 11:55:02 GMT -6
Im thinking beryl comes as far north as the bootheel and that the heaviest rains stay south.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 6, 2024 13:14:11 GMT -6
I've been watching these new AI versions of Euro,GFS and they have been very wet. I need to dig into these more to see what they are all about. The EC version seems very "smoothed" with it's QPF products...looks ensemble-ish or maybe probability based? |
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 6, 2024 21:46:05 GMT -6
Beryl remnant low is going to get tucked under the RER of the CONUS ULJ. Models trending more north and wetter in the middle of the country.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 6, 2024 21:58:29 GMT -6
I've been watching these new AI versions of Euro,GFS and they have been very wet. I need to dig into these more to see what they are all about. The EC version seems very "smoothed" with it's QPF products...looks ensemble-ish or maybe probability based? I was thinking the very same thing. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 6, 2024 22:00:00 GMT -6
Beryl remnant low is going to get tucked under the RER of the CONUS ULJ. Models trending more north and wetter in the middle of the country. This is not a good look at all. Fortunately, we will have had a few days to dry out and the rivers will have all crested. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 6, 2024 22:03:01 GMT -6
The GFS actually shows jet coupling... AND the upper level reflection becoming negatively tilted. Where is this in the winter?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 6, 2024 22:24:18 GMT -6
Not only does the GFS have Beryl dropping a ton of rain around here, it’s also showing 40-50 mph gust from Beryls remnants
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 7, 2024 1:18:36 GMT -6
Here’s the latest 5 day rainfall forecast from the WPC Looking more and more likely Beryl will have a notable impact on the area  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 7, 2024 4:53:02 GMT -6
GFS continues to hammer us Monday into Wednesday. Another multiple inch event.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 7, 2024 5:49:11 GMT -6
Here’s the latest 5 day rainfall forecast from the WPC Looking more and more likely Beryl will have a notable impact on the area Not good. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 7, 2024 6:41:01 GMT -6
Models showing a 603DM ridge @ 500MBs late this week into the Weekend off the Northeast Coast into the northwestern Atlantic. Not often you see a upper level ridge that strong where the 603DM has an isotherm which means the ridge is actually stronger like 604-605DM. Wow. Meanwhile all systems go for the remnants of Beryl impacting the bi-state region. This is looking more like a 'mini' Ike situation. with heavy rains on the front and some gusty winds on the backside, but not as strong as Ike in 2008.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 7, 2024 6:42:21 GMT -6
GFS continues to hammer us Monday into Wednesday. Another multiple inch event. So much for a 'Bone Dry' July! |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 7, 2024 8:40:28 GMT -6
Every model including the hurricane models now shows Beryl getting swept into the trough and tracking through Missouri. The latest NHC forecast has 4" of rain in some parts of the St. Louis area.  |
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