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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 3, 2024 22:24:16 GMT -6
ndolan do you see the 03Z run? any thoughts on the north jog? I'm only looking at at the qpf though (I know a big no-no)
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Post by ndolan387 on Jul 3, 2024 22:32:30 GMT -6
ndolan do you see the 03Z run? any thoughts on the north jog? I'm only looking at at the qpf though (I know a big no-no) Yes thanks for bringing that up. I didn't even look at it till you said something. I like the multiples of 6 runs. Yeah current radar says it went too far north. I say a blend is the way to go! Of course a nowcast situation. Man what a pattern this spring and summer. Heavy rains late April to May to dry as a bone to some rain last week to crazy heavy rains this week! |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 3, 2024 22:40:35 GMT -6
I'm encouraged by the fact that what looked like a repeat of July, 2022, now might not verify. With Pwats so high, I like to add on to the rainfall totals that the models are depicting, because so often the event outperforms the model qpf. That said, if the focus is shifting further north, I am hopeful that the areas that got excessive rainfall this morning, get spared somewhat. Do I let my guard down? I probably don't, but I'm encouraged.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 3, 2024 22:41:04 GMT -6
Any reason you like the multiples of 6 runs?
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Post by ndolan387 on Jul 3, 2024 22:47:02 GMT -6
Any reason you like the multiples of 6 runs? I really meant to say just 00z and 12z as we know (not multiples of 6). Better satellite data, etc on 00z, 12z. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 3, 2024 22:53:02 GMT -6
So, maybe not so far north that the latest HRRR suggests, but a compromise more heavily weighted to the 00 runs. Sounds like we shouldn't let our guard down here in metro. Maybe a little less concerned for those right on 70, but not enough to call off any vigilance. Maybe northern counties of Warren and St Charles County. I wonder if BRTN might end up getting hit, LOL
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 3, 2024 22:54:58 GMT -6
I don't know if the focus (boundary) is going to waver back south through the night. Maybe the "off hour" models are putting too much emphasis on the current radar trends.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jul 3, 2024 23:04:06 GMT -6
I think the STL metro and near the I-70 corridor (30-70 miles on either side (more mi north of I-70 closer to 70 mi or more, less mi south of I-70 closer to 30 mi or less) is in the zone for a very dangerous situation. Yes not all areas in that zone will see more flash flooding, but it's better to be safe than sorry!
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Jul 4, 2024 4:07:14 GMT -6
This is A LOT of rain in Shrewsbury. Has to be in the whole metro from the looks of the radar.
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Post by scmhack on Jul 4, 2024 5:10:48 GMT -6
This is A LOT of rain in Shrewsbury. Has to be in the whole metro from the looks of the radar. Can verify this. Luckily none of it is in my basement. |
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Post by sgdragons on Jul 4, 2024 5:11:15 GMT -6
.5” over night. I will take it!
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Post by REB on Jul 4, 2024 5:18:45 GMT -6
.3 yesterday. 3.36 and still coming today.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 4, 2024 5:20:45 GMT -6
2.94" and counting in Chesterfield.
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 4, 2024 5:24:29 GMT -6
2.88 in st.peters, up to 6.22 and counting last 2 days
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 4, 2024 6:00:38 GMT -6
.16 yesterday, 2.47 and counting today.
Hearing reports of cars stuck at 55 and 64, with diverging onto 64.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 4, 2024 6:07:25 GMT -6
0.26"
Hoping the heavier storms to the WSW come through here and fill up the rain barrel but this slow soaker will go a long way for the ground moisture.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 4, 2024 6:09:20 GMT -6
HRRR did a phenomenal job with this
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Post by amstilost on Jul 4, 2024 6:12:26 GMT -6
Using radar estimates I'm right on the edge of two to three inches of rain 7 miles west of DeSoto. Have been very fortunate in that no continual heavy rain here. It would rain hard for 5 minutes and then let up for 10 and then rain hard again for a couple minutes and let up for 10. That makes one heck of a difference. Keeps looking like it's redeveloping west of me with this blob over Jefferson County into the West into Washington and Franklin County. Hopefully that stops and what's left goes through and we can dry out some. Last 24 hours I was focused on the immediate area here but I didn't realize there would be that much rain that far north in MO.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jul 4, 2024 6:17:28 GMT -6
We finally just had a decent downpour….. radar looks like a snow storm with everything just to our north lol …. I’m thankful we had 2 inches last week
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Post by amstilost on Jul 4, 2024 6:23:53 GMT -6
0.26" Hoping the heavier storms to the WSW come through here and fill up the rain barrel but this slow soaker will go a long way for the ground moisture. That is crazy you have only received a quarter inch of rain so far. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 4, 2024 6:29:36 GMT -6
0.26" Hoping the heavier storms to the WSW come through here and fill up the rain barrel but this slow soaker will go a long way for the ground moisture. That is crazy you have only received a quarter inch of rain so far. Been raining for hours but not heavily at all...a couple bursts of moderate rain mixed in. We've consistently recieved much less than surrounding areas over the past year or more. Have to think the lack of deep ground moisture has played a role there, especially with convection. Looks like there's more to come here. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Jul 4, 2024 6:34:25 GMT -6
Just a few light showers so far from all of this IMBY the past couple days. I'm fine with it. I'd love for the grass to slow down and the pond is still at a good level.
My local municipality and a few others around already made the call yesterday to cancel fireworks this evening. I felt they may have been a bit premature. Time will tell.
Hoping everyone that needed the moisture is getting a good soak!
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Post by amstilost on Jul 4, 2024 6:39:43 GMT -6
I don't know how I didn't notice this before since I have been looking out the living room window for over an hour. The east facing livingroom window and front door have water on them so apparently it must have been pretty windy at some point overnight. I have a fairly large overhang over my front porch. It covers 8' of the porch from the house so it really had to have blown in pretty hard at some point.🤔🤔🤔
I never 'heard' any thunder overnight, was sleeping rather well.😊
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 4, 2024 6:56:23 GMT -6
Now I'm wondering if my fix on the Davis rain gauge wasn't good...the analog gauges are showing close to an inch between yesterday and today(Davis shows half of that) and my rain barrel is full. I may not have the reed switch oriented correctly(not sure if that matters or not) and it's only recording the bucket swing from one direction and not both.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 4, 2024 7:17:12 GMT -6
Everyone watch out for fires with their fireworks this year. Dry as a bone.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 4, 2024 7:17:17 GMT -6
2.94" and counting in Chesterfield. 5.05 west end of Belleville |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 4, 2024 7:19:59 GMT -6
My ambient station keeps going thru periods of stalling when it's raining. Yesterday measured 1.65. It was stalled on 1.39 for a long time while it was pouring. This morning it only has .56. I know we had way more than that. So. That's annoying.
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Post by birddog on Jul 4, 2024 7:24:18 GMT -6
Now I'm wondering if my fix on the Davis rain gauge wasn't good...the analog gauges are showing close to an inch between yesterday and today(Davis shows half of that) and my rain barrel is full. I may not have the reed switch oriented correctly(not sure if that matters or not) and it's only recording the bucket swing from one direction and not both. I'm about 15 miles north of you and I had .74" yesterday and .48" this morning so far. Though this year(and last year) has shown that the line between the haves and have nots is a very fine line. |
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Post by bororug on Jul 4, 2024 7:26:33 GMT -6
.47” yesterday plus an additional 1.33” this morning, giving us a total of 1.8” at 55/61 in Festus.
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Post by dschreib on Jul 4, 2024 7:33:37 GMT -6
We finally just had a decent downpour….. radar looks like a snow storm with everything just to our north lol …. I’m thankful we had 2 inches last week 1.28" since midnight 15.76" since I installed the Davis 6313 console on 04/01.
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