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Post by ComoEsJn on Feb 8, 2024 9:38:52 GMT -6
Sun is out here for once and 50s today. Feels like summer and as I get older I really do notice a serious boost to energy and mood. I’ll always root for snow, but there is nothing worse than constant clouds/darkness and cold/dry. Especially with a toddler. once the kids are elementary age, you find yourself "1 part root for snow" and "5 parts pray for warm and dry ENOUGH to get them outside" |
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Feb 8, 2024 9:42:29 GMT -6
00z gfs has a nice snow too. However, it does it with a ridiculous surface temperature distribution 😂 Definitely worth paying attention to now Ridiculous temperature distribution with the only cold air directly under the heaviest precip... and also ridiculous difference between the total snowfall map and the snow depth product. 3-6" of heavy WET snow but never gets deeper than 0.5-1.5" due to ground temps and melting. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 8, 2024 10:28:50 GMT -6
3-6" of heavy WET snow but never gets deeper than 0.5-1.5" due to ground temps and melting. Hasn't that been the story of just about all our snow this winter? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 8, 2024 10:45:45 GMT -6
I'm going out on a limb with 0-2" Monday...we'll see how it goes
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 8, 2024 11:10:06 GMT -6
So could this be the last blast of Winter we have been waiting for?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 8, 2024 11:53:04 GMT -6
Models looks mildly interesting tomorrow night for some marginal severe
Not a bad looking jet streak moving through
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 8, 2024 12:25:35 GMT -6
Euro would be nice lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2024 12:38:14 GMT -6
Looks great. Should be a county or two wide band with temps dropping to 30-32 with 1-2 inch per hour rates for 4-6 hours. If it happens at night, isolated 6+ inch amounts on grassy services is achievable before compaction does its thing. Outside of this band it’ll probably be 32-34 and mood snow. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Feb 8, 2024 12:41:34 GMT -6
Looks great. Should be a county or two wide band with temps dropping to 30-32 with 1-2 inch per hour rates for 4-6 hours. If it happens at night, isolated 6+ inch amounts on grassy services is achievable before compaction does its thing. Outside of this band it’ll probably be 32-34 and mood snow. Yep, she lays down a nice swath through, Monroe,St.Clair. Madison Co. In Illinois little lollipop ene of stl..hold firm Euro...lol |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 8, 2024 12:58:19 GMT -6
Elevation will most likely play a role... again.
6 inches of snow may fall somewhere... but it will melt/compact almost as fast as it falls. 2.. maybe 3 inches could be measured somewhere... but moments after it ends it will melt away.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 8, 2024 16:06:59 GMT -6
Most models show the mid-level system opening up and shearing out as it passes...I just don't expect much from this setup unless that changes. We'll also be fighting the mid-February insolation for much of the event if it does change over to snow during daylight hours, which is questionable.
This is getting tiresome watching storm after storm take a favorable track with no cold air. The consistency is remarkable if nothing else.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 8, 2024 17:53:38 GMT -6
PDS tornado warning in Wisconsin currently
That’s wild for February
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Post by let it snow11 on Feb 8, 2024 18:13:47 GMT -6
Most models show the mid-level system opening up and shearing out as it passes...I just don't expect much from this setup unless that changes. We'll also be fighting the mid-February insolation for much of the event if it does change over to snow during daylight hours, which is questionable. This is getting tiresome watching storm after storm take a favorable track with no cold air. The consistency is remarkable if nothing else. Agreed. And when we have decent cold air, we can't buy a favorable track, meanwhile the deep south gets buried. It's been a couple winters now since we've had a decent long lasting snowfall and snowcover. I did see a 5" snow imby last January, but it was gone in hours, much like this one will be, if it materializes. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 8, 2024 18:15:29 GMT -6
PDS tornado warning in Wisconsin currently That’s wild for February I was just coming on here to post that. Tornado emergency for a couple towns there. Looks like rotation is subsiding now. Certainly looks like it did some damage with a CC drop over Albion and strewn downstream. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 8, 2024 18:23:12 GMT -6
dont think wisconsin has ever had a tornado in Feb.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 8, 2024 18:54:23 GMT -6
The key to getting any snow with Monday system seems to rest with the ability for jet coupling to be realized... and that seems to be brief... at best. It is not a classic "button hook" look between the northern jet and the approaching southern jet max. The trend throughout has been for whatever band develops to be very narrow. The other trend in the past couple of runs has been to offer more of a focus on southeast Missouri into southern IL instead of further north. There will be a very, very sharp cutoff to the precipitation on the northern extent (maybe southern too) as we may end up with a single mesoscale band...and that's it. After today's weather, I am solidly in the "ready for spring" mode at this point.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 8, 2024 21:19:31 GMT -6
Early trend is flatter and weaker.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 8, 2024 22:07:23 GMT -6
Yeah..icon gfs and gem are all south giving metro nothing. Good times.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Feb 8, 2024 22:15:07 GMT -6
Yeah..icon gfs and gem are all south giving metro nothing. Good times. Yep! There she goes south..Game Over! It is Fork time for this Winter. Sunny and 70 late afternoon was nice...I'm so ready now..without a big late season Arctic blast like 2021..it's no point just melt by days end..oh well even when all signs for mid-feb said go there is some fly in the ointment. Nothing to see here..move along.. |
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Post by weatherj on Feb 8, 2024 22:21:56 GMT -6
Certainly way far off from what looked like another possible Iowa/NE MO/NW IL crusher a few days ago.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 8, 2024 23:50:16 GMT -6
Models looks mildly interesting tomorrow night for some marginal severe Not a bad looking jet streak moving through Marginal risk now across the far southern CWA  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 9, 2024 8:11:30 GMT -6
Was about to mention that, but peeps noticed last night. Could be a noisy night along and southeast of I-44/I-70 tonight including into the metro area. Might be some hailers tonight mainly quarter sized or less.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 9, 2024 10:17:17 GMT -6
Let's shut this thread down.
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