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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 4, 2024 14:18:12 GMT -6
I don't know but get the cicada recipe books ready!
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Feb 4, 2024 14:20:56 GMT -6
And there's the EURO with the textbook snowstorm setup at D7-8...gotta love it. It's an outlier with the handling of the N stream and cold air though...but fun to look at. Seasonal trend and most other models argue for a further N track. I’ll be out of town til Monday night. So it will happen and I’ll miss out on our only snow |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Feb 4, 2024 14:23:09 GMT -6
I’m looking at the 12z euro at hour 168 and don’t see how it won’t end up as a big winter storm for the area. Let’s wait a couple minutes and see how we get missed 😂 **Update** Now out to hour 198 the euro is a concrete crush job with 6-10+ inches for most of the viewing area. Upper air temperatures are fantastic. The way it tries to ruin it for us is with borderline surface temperatures. Basically, the preceding storm doesn’t pull a ton of cold air down and while there is decent high pressure blocking to our north, it is sliding to the northeast limiting evaporative cooling opportunities. Overall, a great run but a perfect illustration of just how much has to go right for us to cash in anymore. Like what it is showing us WSC, but of course it has to be perfect..who knows after everything this season maybe..just maybe this is the one...if it fails or shortly there after I'd say it's time for baseball and golf weather I will have had enough frustration by then might as well hit some golf balls for enjoyment 😉 😀 lol it's only weather but it is fun! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 4, 2024 17:13:04 GMT -6
The euro reminds me of last year's memphis low that only produced a couple inches of slush in saint louis. It was a bit more generous over the Eastern ozarks at somewhat higher elevation, but most of us didn't get nearly. What a storm of that type should produce because of the marginal temperatures.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Feb 5, 2024 1:34:09 GMT -6
Does Euro still show the storm?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 5, 2024 5:20:26 GMT -6
Does Euro still show the storm? It pretty well lost it...looks a lot different from the 12z run |
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Post by REB on Feb 5, 2024 7:02:54 GMT -6
Happy Weatherperson's day Chris!!!!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 10:19:37 GMT -6
Models don’t have a clue about Super Bowl storm this cycle.
12z gfs is sheared and suppressed.
12z Icon has an ideal surface track, but is north with the upper levels.
12z ggem is furthest north, but tries to do an energy handoff.
Safe to say they won’t be reliable outside of maybe 3-4 days with this pattern.
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Post by foxrox on Feb 5, 2024 10:20:17 GMT -6
Well it figures we'll get a storm next week since I'm flying out to JAX NC to help my son move back to the Lou and my DIL and I are following a few days later driving from Charleston!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 12:34:58 GMT -6
Model battles continue.
12z Ukmet is sheared and suppressed.
12z euro has brought our storm back with a vengeance.
Too much vengeance in fact 😂
Basically, a carbon copy of our past 2 failures.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 12:57:31 GMT -6
12z euro also brings down some serious cold to the Canadian border by late next week.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 5, 2024 12:59:36 GMT -6
Tracking this rain storm is useless. Ssdd
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Post by chowderhead54 on Feb 5, 2024 13:06:30 GMT -6
Model battles continue. 12z Ukmet is sheared and suppressed. 12z euro has brought our storm back with a vengeance. Too much vengeance in fact 😂 Basically, a carbon copy of our past 2 failures. Definitely some split camps on this one.. Maybe just maybe the Euro will have it a bit less ampped so we can get it to track a bit further south and have Snow vs. Rain I know the lower levels are borderline but the rest is looking like 👍🏻 👌 😉 |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 13:16:10 GMT -6
Tracking this rain storm is useless. Ssdd But each one makes it to where I don’t have to hear about drought or summer temps of 165 F |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 5, 2024 13:34:40 GMT -6
We have about a 2 to 3 week shot from next week to early march. But I personally am leaning more towards rain to cool.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 5, 2024 13:49:31 GMT -6
Should make another run at 70° later this week
Some of the soundings look marginally supportive of severe weather as well
Just bring on spring at this point
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Post by RyanD on Feb 5, 2024 13:56:17 GMT -6
Second half of Feb into early March looks chilly. AO looks to get strongly negative. We may be on the western edge of the cold but I don't see any an early spring.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 5, 2024 14:18:05 GMT -6
Second half of Feb into early March looks chilly. AO looks to get strongly negative. We may be on the western edge of the cold but I don't see any an early spring. Fully agree on the cold core being east based this time. Matches better with the QBO anyway. Probably will cash in on a hybrid clipper |
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 5, 2024 15:35:00 GMT -6
Should make another run at 70° later this week Some of the soundings look marginally supportive of severe weather as well Just bring on spring at this point I think some areas will be close to 75* Fri. Dare I say the upper 70s. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 5, 2024 15:46:52 GMT -6
70 to 75 seems like a good bet Friday with tons of sun and favorable wind direction. Upper 70s may be pushing it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 5, 2024 16:13:07 GMT -6
Should make another run at 70° later this week Some of the soundings look marginally supportive of severe weather as well Just bring on spring at this point Was going to mention this the other day but marginal moisture and weak forcing will probably limit the potential. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 5, 2024 22:07:48 GMT -6
Happy Weatherperson's day Chris!!!! Thanks Reb! And on top of that... today marks my 30th year year at KTVI! My how the world has changed over those 30 years! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 5, 2024 22:29:12 GMT -6
Happy Weatherperson's day Chris!!!! Thanks Reb! And on top of that... today marks my 30th year year at KTVI! My how the world has changed over those 30 years! Congrats Chris! 30 years at one place is pretty amazing!! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 5, 2024 22:39:30 GMT -6
Happy Weatherperson's day Chris!!!! Thanks Reb! And on top of that... today marks my 30th year year at KTVI! My how the world has changed over those 30 years! 30 years! You're a true veteran! Congrats! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 5, 2024 23:10:27 GMT -6
Yeah... GFS 354hr looks about right... heavy snow between Jacksonville Florida and Savanah.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 6, 2024 6:37:41 GMT -6
Happy Weatherpersons's Day Chris and congrats on 30 years at the station.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 6, 2024 6:56:44 GMT -6
The GFS has a nice thump of snow for the southern half early next week….. it has had this the last 2 runs now
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 6, 2024 8:57:21 GMT -6
Congrats Chris on 30 years! So glad you are still here! We love and admire ya!
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Post by sgdragons on Feb 6, 2024 9:04:51 GMT -6
Congrats on 30 years Chris! I've been enjoying your weather for at least 25 of that. Parents were big Channel Five people back then. Art/Bloom were the go to in our one TV house. lol
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Post by REB on Feb 6, 2024 10:05:20 GMT -6
Happy Weatherperson's day Chris!!!! Thanks Reb! And on top of that... today marks my 30th year year at KTVI! My how the world has changed over those 30 years! 30 years! That’s quite an accomplishment. Congratulations. |
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