Chris's Corner - Bitter Cold and Some Snow

[Jeffmw]

So for snow in the Metro area is pretty much a bust with this round?

[chowderhead54]

Jan 11, 2024 17:24:52 GMT -6 Jeffmw said:

So for snow in the Metro area is pretty much a bust with this round?

This one and the next one and so on, and so on...

[blueblood]

Jan 11, 2024 16:34:03 GMT -6 chowderhead54 said:

Jan 11, 2024 16:26:32 GMT -6 chowderhead54 said:

18z gfs has 3 shots of Snow through tue evening and can barely muster up 2 inches..this is so freaking sad!!

Who the hell wants below zero, ice cold winds..with zero Snow cover..boring!! Might as well bring on spring, baseball, golfing, this is such a waste of a great Airmass..beyond passed off..I know it's just weather but damn it Jim..give me some Snow with the Arctic outbreak..not a #$@@ turd sandwich 🥪.

Yeah....come on Jim through us a bone!! Well....not dry as a bone....had enough of that! We need a snow covered bone!!!
Don't give up everyone.....this actually is fairly normal. We just have access to the models that we didn't have 50 years ago (yeah....I'm 64....but I don't FEEL old)!! When I was a kid it seemed like we got more snow....but really only the late 70s. Yep...82 was great. 79, 80 and 81
..not so much. At least I don't remember any. We did have the new year's eve ice storm on top of snow....but I think that's the only storm we had! We didn't have the digital snow from models....so we didn't know when we got shafted! 😀

[Raja72]

Curious why there is a winter weather advisory in Southwest MO? Would we expect that to extend eastward? Is it different NWS offices taking different approaches to timing of notifications or is there an expected difference in impact in SW MO than STL? Sorry, just trying to understand.

[Bandit]

I see NOAA has upped the chances for snow in their forecast for Sunday night into Monday. Maybe just maybe we can get a little snow out of that system.

[bellevillewxguy]

Looks like the risk of any backside snow tomorrow is all but zero as moisture is long gone before cold enough air arrives with morning highs around 50, crashing to the mid 20s by dinner time. Precipitation looks to clear all but the northern most counties by lunchtime to 1-2PM at the latest. Perhaps the northern counties can catch a quick wind driven dusting but that seems less likely as well. We had 3 chances for a solid winter storm and pretty much all failed to deliver certainly to expectations. While next week is questionable as models flip flop between a persistently cold pattern and a warmer one there is only very weak signals of any impactful weather systems for the next 7-10 days after tomorrow. The cold air just couldn't settle in fast enough and the warmer air more persistent then expected a week ago. Which is why everything was ultimately more north then expected, and then the cold air does finally arrive it does with soo much strength that is suppresses anything too far south. If it's the bi-state region there's a million and one ways for us to get screwed and the 1 in 1,000,002 chance that everything works out perfect for a once in a generation storm, but then that's about it. Maybe February can deliver but unless it's a very cold airmass behind it, the snow won't stick for long, so usually we're ready for Summer anyway. I have since the last one ended. In 30-50 years we probably won't get winter weather here anymore due to climate change then we'll have to get excited about something else. Maybe tropical remnants and how high the temps can get?

[Snowstorm920]

Dude I know you like summer but cmon lol

[cozpregon]

I'm sorry... but you're post are so ridiculous they are annoying.

[Snowman99]

Nam 3 shows some decent snow showers/squalls early afternoon. Hope the HRRR and RAP start showing that

[bellevillewxguy]

Jan 11, 2024 20:58:10 GMT -6 cozpregon said:

I'm sorry... but you're post are so ridiculous they are annoying.

To be honest that's how I feel when you guys post and complain about when things don't work out the way people want (the snow weenies), like that's the only weather they care about. Not heat, not rain, or thunderstorms unless it's severe weather. I get soo tired of people whining about not getting snow that it drives me insane. This is a weather group, and all weather should be equal. Weather equality! Just because I like and prefer Summer and warmer weather and the storms or drought/high temps it brings you all chew me out for it. Yes, my 'forecasts' and predictions can be ridiculous but even a broken clock is right once or twice depending on the type of clock. And as mentioned in my previous post, the climate is changing and has been for decades if not a century and generally for the warmer. Things could change but for now I don't see a reversal anytime soon. We're still getting a cool storm tomorrow. Its not usual to get a sub 985mb low in or near St. Louis especially one that's bombing out as it passes along with some impressive winds. I get it for some it's a business thing and that's understandable, but I personally think that relying on a uncertain income source like winter weather year after year especially in this area annually is not a good investment going forward into the future and other sources might need to be found, especially when it comes to snow removal.

[cozpregon]

I never complain. Your climate change crap needs to go.

[bellevillewxguy]

Getting hail reports and MPings from Northeast Oklahoma, Arkansas, and even southern Missouri. Nice showers and even some embedded thunder forming north of St. Louis.

[Mr Snowplow]

Jan 11, 2024 21:09:07 GMT -6 bellevillewxguy said:

Jan 11, 2024 20:58:10 GMT -6 cozpregon said:

I'm sorry... but you're post are so ridiculous they are annoying.

To be honest that's how I feel when you guys post and complain about when things don't work out the way people want (the snow weenies), like that's the only weather they care about. Not heat, not rain, or thunderstorms unless it's severe weather. I get soo tired of people whining about not getting snow that it drives me insane. This is a weather group, and all weather should be equal. Weather equality! Just because I like and prefer Summer and warmer weather and the storms or drought/high temps it brings you all chew me out for it. Yes, my 'forecasts' and predictions can be ridiculous but even a broken clock is right once or twice depending on the type of clock. And as mentioned in my previous post, the climate is changing and has been for decades if not a century and generally for the warmer. Things could change but for now I don't see a reversal anytime soon. We're still getting a cool storm tomorrow. Its not usual to get a sub 985mb low in or near St. Louis especially one that's bombing out as it passes along with some impressive winds. I get it for some it's a business thing and that's understandable, but I personally think that relying on a uncertain income source like winter weather year after year especially in this area annually is not a good investment going forward into the future and other sources might need to be found, especially when it comes to snow removal.

Same song and dance with you. Over and over again. Now that gets old.

[bellevillewxguy]

OK Let's take a census. How many of you are tired of me posting (doesn't matter the what the post is, but in general).Seriously I want a honest opinion, don't hold back. If I can get 10 people or more to say that they don't want me posting here then I'll stop posting and just lurk from now on, because other then a few of you and of course Chris I'm about done with this group. Because I'm always placed as the bad guy... Always.

[BRTNWXMAN]

Let's just keep the focus on the current storm, shall we?

Had a few flashes of lightning the past 30 minutes up this way. Wind is starting to pick up a bit too.

[Steven Penrod- HLEW]

Since adding a picture on here is harder than getting a winter storm in STL just imagine me putting the photo of Michael Jackson eating popcorn.

[Snowstorm920]

Soundings do look favorable for snow squalls tomorrow afternoon and evening behind the bombing out low

[bfsmith81]

All that QPF and all or nearly all in the form of rain. What a waste! Would have really been something with 10:1 ratios.

[Snowstorm920]

I know it’s the NAM at 84 hours, but it looks juicy with the Sunday/Monday system

Let’s hope it’s onto something

[bellevillewxguy]

Pings of .25" hail showing up east of Troy, MO and west of St. Paul, MO in the metro west.

[Snowman99]

it isn't lol

[steve]

Had a few pings on hail about 30 minutes ago here

[chowderhead54]

Jan 11, 2024 21:38:24 GMT -6 Snowstorm920 said:

I know it’s the NAM at 84 hours, but it looks juicy with the Sunday/Monday system

Let’s hope it’s onto something

Saw that as well, if you extrapolate it out 6-12 hrs..could...big if..could be good!

[chowderhead54]

Jan 11, 2024 21:44:39 GMT -6 chowderhead54 said:

Jan 11, 2024 21:38:24 GMT -6 Snowstorm920 said:

I know it’s the NAM at 84 hours, but it looks juicy with the Sunday/Monday system

Let’s hope it’s onto something

Saw that as well, if you extrapolate it out 6-12 hrs..could...big if..could be good!

RGEM after 84 looks like it wants to do something..

[Snowstorm920]

Jan 11, 2024 21:39:38 GMT -6 Snowman99 said:

it isn't lol

I’m projecting what it would look like into Monday. Nice little shortwave over the Texas panhandle that’s tapping into some gulf moisture.

Unfortunately it’s the NAM at 84 hours 

[bfsmith81]

If you guys need a good laugh, take a look at the 18Z GFS frame for hour 384 with the "Total Snow Accumulation (Kuchera)" parameter on College of Dupage Models page (https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/).
We're definitely getting -boned- on snow. LOL

[tedrick65]

Surprise sleet in Seattle (from my daughter)

[chowderhead54]

Jan 11, 2024 21:47:30 GMT -6 Snowstorm920 said:

Jan 11, 2024 21:39:38 GMT -6 Snowman99 said:

it isn't lol

I’m projecting what it would look like into Monday. Nice little shortwave over the Texas panhandle that’s tapping into some gulf moisture.

Unfortunately it’s the NAM at 84 hours 

It's a reach for us but..why not..oh wait we know the answer..on another part of the Storm..Blue Northern underway..western Kansas and Oklahoma plummeting temps..western ok panhandle down to 19 with a dp of less..NW wind 39mph...

[chowderhead54]

Jan 11, 2024 21:51:37 GMT -6 chowderhead54 said:

Jan 11, 2024 21:47:30 GMT -6 Snowstorm920 said:

I’m projecting what it would look like into Monday. Nice little shortwave over the Texas panhandle that’s tapping into some gulf moisture.

Unfortunately it’s the NAM at 84 hours 

It's a reach for us but..why not..oh wait we know the answer..on another part of the Storm..Blue Northern
underway..western Kansas and Oklahoma plummeting temps..western ok panhandle down to 19 with a dp of less..NW wind 39mph...

This is one strong Airmass you can see the Arctic front up.in the PNW, past port Angeles down to Everett,WA. It hopped right over the divide in Western Mt, is pouring into Eastern WA,that usually slows it down but not this slug of Cold it's Dense..

[maddogchief]

Whoa! What did I miss? Lol