ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Aug 10, 2023 20:07:05 GMT -6
Level 2 severe weather threat for Saturday for the entire metro area. ? - isn't the marginal just to the east of St. Louis City? |
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Aug 10, 2023 20:29:05 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 10, 2023 21:08:47 GMT -6
There will be a watch here tomorrow night
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 11, 2023 8:34:20 GMT -6
Of all the variations I like the NAM3km look to storm evolution tonight at this point. It seems more coherent... if not a little slow.
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 11, 2023 9:35:03 GMT -6
Of all the variations I like the NAM3km look to storm evolution tonight at this point. It seems more coherent... if not a little slow. I looked that. It looks like they have it missing much of the area if I’m reading it right. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 11, 2023 10:38:57 GMT -6
Of all the variations I like the NAM3km look to storm evolution tonight at this point. It seems more coherent... if not a little slow. We can go ahead and lock that in...skirts Brighton like clockwork |
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Post by amstilost on Aug 11, 2023 14:21:34 GMT -6
What an amazing forecast through Friday. Bring it on. What am I missing with the Drought Information Statement? "ENSO Forecast-Headline Summary Text (Example: La Niña conditions are favored to continue through winter and into spring, with a 90% chance of La Niña continuing through DJF with 50% chance of La Niña continuing into MAM.) Clicky Go to page 18 for ENSO Statement. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 11, 2023 15:51:18 GMT -6
Looks like an MCS will try and sweep through the area late tonight
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 11, 2023 17:29:30 GMT -6
Looks like an MCS will try and sweep through the area late tonight CAMs now have the centroid tracking over MBY...lol "Guess we'll see" |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 11, 2023 18:01:12 GMT -6
I still like the look of tge NAM3km. It may be a little slow, but the evolution looks solid.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 11, 2023 18:40:09 GMT -6
A couple runs ago the HRRR had a north to south moving MCS across the area.
Latest run has a SW to NE moving MCS lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 11, 2023 19:41:29 GMT -6
Satellite starting to show building CU field with cooling tops in northwest Missouri... looks like we are getting close to initiation as the 35kt LLJ starts to work up over the top of the surface boundary/warm front that is draped over the region. Things should get hopping pretty quickly as we get closer to 10pm up that way.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 11, 2023 19:55:44 GMT -6
Here is the zone I'm looking at...  |
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 11, 2023 20:29:54 GMT -6
Are they going to expand the watch?
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Post by amstilost on Aug 11, 2023 20:38:22 GMT -6
sure didn't take long for the storms in NW MO to go severe.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 11, 2023 20:50:36 GMT -6
Are they going to expand the watch? Good chance... but much later in the night. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 11, 2023 21:18:35 GMT -6
Those storms just exploded in NW Missouri
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Post by tedrick65 on Aug 11, 2023 21:39:31 GMT -6
LaPlata railcam (10 miles south of Kirksville) is always great for monitoring what is kind of a dead area on radar...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0hZHp3faHzA
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Post by tedrick65 on Aug 11, 2023 21:44:35 GMT -6
LaPlata railcam (10 miles south of Kirksville) is always great for monitoring what is kind of a dead area on radar...https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0hZHp3faHzA Lots of lightning there now...and lots of traffic if you're a train fan. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 11, 2023 21:50:26 GMT -6
The HRRR sure is having a hard time realizing where the storms are lol. That model is all or nothing.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 11, 2023 22:54:27 GMT -6
The HRRR sure is having a hard time realizing where the storms are lol. That model is all or nothing. No doubt... It has actually done decently well with some of these overnight events but it is really struggling to find the plate tonight. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 11, 2023 23:26:26 GMT -6
Maybe they will be regular storms when they get here.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 12, 2023 0:45:01 GMT -6
All staying to the north of the metro for the time being. A quiet night wouldn't be bad.
And as I'm typing that sentence a watch gets issued for much of the metro until 10 am
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 12, 2023 1:01:01 GMT -6
All staying to the north of the metro for the time being. A quiet night wouldn't be bad. And as I'm typing that sentence a watch gets issued for much of the metro until 10 am It could still stay just to the north |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 12, 2023 3:31:33 GMT -6
Winds are already whipping and the lightning is prolific. Going to be a very noisy morning.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 12, 2023 4:36:12 GMT -6
Not a quiet night. Storm was bad here from what I could see and folks were telling me at work.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 12, 2023 6:11:02 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 12, 2023 7:46:50 GMT -6
Either it wasn't too bad here or I was really tired. I slept through most of it.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 12, 2023 8:06:51 GMT -6
Not much of a storm in Brighton except for quite a bit of C2G lightning but a good soaker with 0.6" overnight...been a long time coming
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Aug 12, 2023 8:09:35 GMT -6
Either it wasn't too bad here or I was really tired. I slept through most of it. Another garden variety storm here. Some wind, lightning and a few leaves down. The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete reports a dismal .14 |
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