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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 14:15:17 GMT -6
18Z HRRR lays down 1-2" across the area tomorrow night into Sunday morning
Worth keeping tabs on that little system
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 14:43:14 GMT -6
Interesting to note in the EPS, that there are a large number of individual members with surface low positions on the western edge of the envelope.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 20, 2023 14:59:18 GMT -6
Interesting to note in the EPS, that there are a large number of individual members with surface low positions on the western edge of the envelope. I think this is a real concern with a system like this 4+ days out. No doubt will see some oscillations in modeling from where we are today, but some net incremental steps northwest would not be surprising to me at all. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2023 15:09:58 GMT -6
Agree. Often enough, we see consensus building for a more western solution within the 5 day window, and ultimately we end up too far se. I think its going to depend on when it gets pulled to the north by the upper levels and whether it stacks too far west.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 20, 2023 15:11:15 GMT -6
My experience is that the 500mb vorticity max track has more deviation from storm to storm with respect to axis of heaviest snow. So I don't worry about it as much. The 850mb low is like clockwork on almost all southern storms... about 90nm left of track. The trick in forecasting is getting that track correct. I've seen global models off by as much as 50-75nm at 24 hour lead time. Thanks, I know from others on here that we rarely get snow south of the 850mb track. I sure hope the 850 and 700mb lows don't start trending nw. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2023 15:14:54 GMT -6
Interesting afd.also interesting click point forecast for my grid. Using the words could be heavy.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2023 15:19:34 GMT -6
Long time lurker. Just reset the password and will be pleased to sign in to read the board. Wow, it has been a minute since we have heard from you. Welcome back. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 20, 2023 15:20:43 GMT -6
I have a pit in my stomach telling me this will be a columbia to springfield illinois storm, with a cold rain in the metro, but I hope my stomach is wrong. The nw trend almost always seems real to me.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2023 15:28:17 GMT -6
Cpc in their long range outlooks keep trending west the area depicting below normal temps and even has us above normal in their 3 to 4 week outlook. While not too relevant for individual storms, it may be that the se ridge just cant be overcome this winter and we see the nw trend propagate into the operational models and the verification. The 30 day outlook has most of mo in eq chances for all temp categories with above avg precip.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 15:35:45 GMT -6
18z Icon looks great for the metro.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 15:48:09 GMT -6
Going to be tough for this to track to far west IMO. While it is going negative tilt and strengthening as it approaches, it also starts to get sheared out the further NE it travels.
The energy is also proged to dig into northern Mexico before ejecting. It would be tough for it to gain that much latitude unless it came to a near standstill as its ejecting
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 16:04:43 GMT -6
O'l I-44 crusher on the 18z GFS
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 20, 2023 16:05:04 GMT -6
18z GFS still on track.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2023 16:05:37 GMT -6
Yep , 8-12” of heavy wet snow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 16:06:09 GMT -6
Going to be tough for this to track to far west IMO. While it is going negative tilt and strengthening as it approaches, it also starts to get sheared out the further NE it travels. The energy is also proged to dig into northern Mexico before ejecting. It would be tough for it to gain that much latitude unless it came to a near standstill as its ejecting How soon you forget Christmas Eve 2009. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 16:08:01 GMT -6
Going to be tough for this to track to far west IMO. While it is going negative tilt and strengthening as it approaches, it also starts to get sheared out the further NE it travels. The energy is also proged to dig into northern Mexico before ejecting. It would be tough for it to gain that much latitude unless it came to a near standstill as its ejecting How soon you forget Christmas Eve 2009. We do not speak of that system |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 16:08:44 GMT -6
Gfs would be some tree snapping snow.
Very heavy stuff and a lot of it.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2023 16:16:25 GMT -6
the differences between the snow total and snow depth charts is mesmerizing. Especially for the GFS. 10:1 total is 14.9". Kuchera is 9.8" and depth is 2.4" lmao
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2023 16:20:01 GMT -6
Kutchura is probably best way to go at this point will probably be 7-1 or 8-1 type ratios not 10-1
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 16:24:46 GMT -6
the differences between the snow total and snow depth charts is mesmerizing. Especially for the GFS. 10:1 total is 14.9". Kuchera is 9.8" and depth is 2.4" lmao Cobb method has 20" in STL lol
That's not factoring in compacting and melting, which will be big players with this system
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2023 16:27:52 GMT -6
the differences between the snow total and snow depth charts is mesmerizing. Especially for the GFS. 10:1 total is 14.9". Kuchera is 9.8" and depth is 2.4" lmao I think the depth chart favors rain as the QPF type when it's precipitating into temps above 32* at the surface when it would be heavy snow. Once that moderate/heavy snow starts falling, the lower column will cool to right around freezing and allow snow to break through but the model doesn't "see" it. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2023 16:29:31 GMT -6
I'm thinking this is going to be a 6-8" type storm...maybe some double digits in banding. It's a fairly quick mover so that's going to limit the big totals, IMO...along with melting/compaction.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 16:31:06 GMT -6
Some -50 F temps showing up in Canada by next weekend on the gfs.
Better hope that doesn’t get unleashed completely.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2023 16:42:10 GMT -6
Some -50 F temps showing up in Canada by next weekend on the gfs. Better hope that doesn’t get unleashed completely. Yeah, we might be in trouble if cross polar flow develops. There's gonna be snowpack from here to Canada after this storm. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 20, 2023 16:48:58 GMT -6
Supposedly they "fixed" the snow microphysics in the latest update. It was overestimating depths in borderline temperatures. Maybe it's now underestimating them.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 20, 2023 17:10:01 GMT -6
As long as Ballwin gets more snow than Union😂🤣
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 17:24:59 GMT -6
Some gfs ensembles too far north on the 18z run, but the mean is basically perfect so nothing to worry about yet.
There are a few too far south as well, but majority look great.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2023 17:49:03 GMT -6
Yes the GEFS mean has been trending better every run for the last 24 hours . It now has 6-8” mean through the area which is really good five days out. The nice thing to s the EPS and all Global models support a really good snow storm here next week. Still a lot could happen but we are in a great spot right now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 18:10:50 GMT -6
Going to be tough for this to track to far west IMO. While it is going negative tilt and strengthening as it approaches, it also starts to get sheared out the further NE it travels. The energy is also proged to dig into northern Mexico before ejecting. It would be tough for it to gain that much latitude unless it came to a near standstill as its ejecting Bingo.... so when it opens up will be key. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 20, 2023 18:15:50 GMT -6
The temperatures for Tuesday into Wednesday don’t look super cold. Does this look like a casual event or a storm type event.
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