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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 18:20:27 GMT -6
The temperatures for Tuesday into Wednesday don’t look super cold. Does this look like a casual event or a storm type event. Temperatures will drop to near or just below freezing in the heavier snow. This will be a winter storm situation. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 20, 2023 18:26:56 GMT -6
Perfect set up for heavy wet snow with this one
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2023 18:35:27 GMT -6
We actually haven't really had a really picturesque heave wet snow for a while it seems. At least something that lasts more than 10 minutes.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 20, 2023 18:42:23 GMT -6
I’m a little confused by my forecast from the NWS ….. it’s mostly all rain …. I honestly don’t see one model that supports this ….. Am I missing something?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2023 19:18:24 GMT -6
Looking at the 18z EPS total snow, I really don't see any any that are nw of here with the main band.Some are a little south, but not too bad.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 19:27:18 GMT -6
Looking at the 18z EPS total snow, I really don't see any any that are nw of here with the main band.Some are a little south, but not too bad. Ya I don't see any members too far west.
A handful of those are pretty far east
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 20:37:04 GMT -6
I am having PTSD type memories of the suprise snow in November tonight... lol. This is my attempt to try and capture, but not oversell, the potential for a little suprise 1-2 in spots southeast of STL tomorrow. I used this on the air earlier and plan to again on the 9pm, 10pm and 11pm.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 21:12:45 GMT -6
THe 21z SREF is certainly thinking 1"+ is possible Saturday night...  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 20, 2023 21:18:59 GMT -6
In my best Ned Stark voice... "00z is coming"
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 21:33:42 GMT -6
00z Icon is a bit weak/warm/southeast.
Hopefully, the gfs looks better.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2023 21:33:49 GMT -6
Yes 21z SREF has 1-2” from metro south other hi res models show some light snow. Definitely favors the southern folks
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 21:55:40 GMT -6
Silence as the crew waits the GFS. You can hear a pin drop.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 21:59:53 GMT -6
Drum roll please
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2023 22:04:22 GMT -6
Well, gfs is a little south of prior runs, still a solid run
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2023 22:06:35 GMT -6
South 25 miles or so but still great run for 4-5 days out
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 20, 2023 22:07:56 GMT -6
Based on placement of lows I think that heaviest axis of snow would be a bit further north. That is some seriously heavy snow looking at sounding. Full on hamsters.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 22:14:53 GMT -6
Based on placement of lows I think that heaviest axis of snow would be a bit further north. That is some seriously heavy snow looking at sounding. Full on hamsters. I was just looking at that myself... and agree. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 22:17:10 GMT -6
Last several runs of the GFS have been inching further and further south. It still looks great for the area but don’t need it to continue moving south.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 20, 2023 22:25:41 GMT -6
A hair south but still a solid 6-10" for most of the metro, so long as there is no further correction SE I think we're in a good spot.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2023 22:42:30 GMT -6
I don’t think you can sweat any small details this far out, I’m sure the main snow band will wobble some from run to run
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 20, 2023 22:45:57 GMT -6
The 850mb track looks to be close on both the 0Z and 18Z cycles. It is a touch south of the benchmark needed to maximize snowfall in the immediate metro area.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 20, 2023 22:47:59 GMT -6
GEFS about the same. Locked in for several runs now.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2023 22:48:48 GMT -6
Yes I would like to see a 25-50 mile bump north please
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2023 22:50:29 GMT -6
Ukmet is further south than 12z by 50-100 miles
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 22:54:57 GMT -6
Ukmet is further south than 12z by 50-100 miles Oddly enough the 500mb low closes off north of the metro that run |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 22:59:27 GMT -6
GEFS about the same. Locked in for several runs now. The ensemble mean looks great, but breaking it down by members shows the swing and miss potential still
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 20, 2023 23:00:34 GMT -6
GEFS about the same. Locked in for several runs now. The ensemble mean looks great, but breaking it down by members shows the swing and miss potential still
Lot of duds in there |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 23:04:55 GMT -6
The ensemble means on the sfc/850/700/500 tracks are still pretty good. Any changes are well within what we would expect at this time range. I mean let's be honest... agreement in the basic components are still really good. There's not much to worry about at this point. Don't get to reved up and excited about the dream runs... and don't get too bummed when a bad run prints outs. That's the power of the ensembles.... they help smooth out those ups and downs. Steady as we go.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 23:29:16 GMT -6
The latest run of the our in house IBM/GRAF model is identical to the HRRR for Saturday evening/night. It's just not as generous with accumulations...which I like. I think most will see some wet snow Saturday night... especially far eastern Missouri into southeastern MO and southern IL. Accumulations still look hard to come by. Most will be lucky to get a very light, slushy dusting. But a narrow band of 1-2 inches looks possible from Fredericktown, MO to Flora, IL.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2023 0:30:33 GMT -6
Euro looks alittle drier this run, but all the big picture pieces look similar to past runs
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