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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 10:52:33 GMT -6
ukie is on vacay too. This is great. Ukmet is out on Pivotal and looks solid. A little south and weaker than the gfs/ggem have been. 4-8 inches for the metro with the heaviest snow south of STL including some 10 inch lollipops. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2023 10:57:15 GMT -6
Well it was a few minutes later than normal. Lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 10:58:08 GMT -6
12z gfs ensembles have the primary snow band running from Southwest Missouri to just south of STL and into Northwestern Ohio.
6-8 inches for the mean in the main band.
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Post by freezyfree on Jan 20, 2023 11:03:06 GMT -6
I just absolutely love how this place does not move for weeks and then voila! I don’t check for an hour or so and we have skipped ahead pages!!!
The best time of the year! ❄️❄️❄️
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 11:06:46 GMT -6
Now we're starting to cook with some gas. These are 4" or more probabilities off the GEFS  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 20, 2023 11:37:13 GMT -6
Yeah as of now, i continue to like south of 44 and north of us 60 corridors (way down in southern mo) in MO as best candidates for potential highest impact. Many days out attm, so that can change.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 11:38:44 GMT -6
12z ggem is definitely north of other guidance, but still hammers the central and northern metro.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 20, 2023 11:53:10 GMT -6
The GGEM lays down the axis of heaviest snow south of the 850mb low track. This is clearly unrealistic and especially given very marginal surface temps.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2023 12:22:14 GMT -6
12z euro is pretty awesome
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 20, 2023 12:23:02 GMT -6
The GGEM lays down the axis of heaviest snow south of the 850mb low track. This is clearly unrealistic and especially given very marginal surface temps. Congrats Wentzville, Warrenton, Decatur... |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 20, 2023 12:27:03 GMT -6
Oh Lord, let the Euro come true
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 12:27:22 GMT -6
12z euro is pretty awesome I don't think you can get much better than that.
Classic Memphis low snowstorm
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 20, 2023 12:31:10 GMT -6
Man looking at H5 vorticity. Both the GFS and gem come way to far NW for us
I guess it's not impossible for the system to vertically integrated and not be at occlusion.
But we want the h5 low in the bootheal not up 44.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 12:32:51 GMT -6
This needs to be printed out, framed, and hung in the St. Louis art gallery  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2023 12:38:03 GMT -6
EC looks great with the 700mb track from SGF to STL. Consensus of the 12z runs has a very favorable track for the Metro and most of the CWA, really. The stronger GFS/GEM would put the S/E counties on the edge. But they are squarely on the NW side of guidance.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2023 12:38:55 GMT -6
I think we are in a good spot for this stage of the game. Honestly, it doesn't get much better than this 4+ days out. The wheels will fall off for a run or two over the weekend (see MTW rules as a refresher) but much of the area (if not all) appears to be in line for accumulating snow. Time of day will help significantly to get accumulation started despite marginal temps.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2023 12:44:31 GMT -6
Man looking at H5 vorticity. Both the GFS and gem come way to far NW for us I guess it's not impossible for the system to vertically integrated and not be at occlusion. But we want the h5 low in the bootheal not up 44. That's one of the biggest discrepancies in guidance is the structure of the cyclone vertically...the GFS/GEM are more stacked while the EC/UK are more tilted NW with height. Either solution camp would bring big snow to the Metro though. The GFS 700mb track is actually a hair S of the EC. Any way you slice it, it's a great look at the D4/5 range... |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 20, 2023 12:48:27 GMT -6
It looks like NBM got upgraded to 4.1 recently. I think this explains why the cycles went to 1, 7, 13, and 19 on Pivotal Weather. You can get the text products here. |
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Post by RyanD on Jan 20, 2023 12:49:44 GMT -6
GFS and GEM sure do look a lot alike though. Hoping they are a bit too far north. Thankfully the other models and the ensembles don't really support that far north (not that's a swing in a miss but would rather see the low closer to memphis)
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 20, 2023 12:50:22 GMT -6
I just want the weekend of 17 Feb to be clear of any bad weather from here up to Chicago. My son graduates Navy boot camp and starts the school to learn his job that following week up there, too. Proud papa is an understatement!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2023 12:52:05 GMT -6
12z GEFS mean 850mb low track from Little Rock to Cave-in-Rock...gotta love it!
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 20, 2023 12:55:48 GMT -6
BTW...NBM 4.1 still does not include UKMET. It does include the Australian ACCESS-G model though. Weird. I'd really like to know who prioritized that over UKMET.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 20, 2023 13:08:15 GMT -6
12Z GEPS and GEFS agreement on the 850mb low track is unusually close for 120 hours out.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 20, 2023 13:12:27 GMT -6
Add the 12Z EPS to the consensus. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS are all within a few miles of each other. What could go wrong?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2023 13:15:30 GMT -6
eps chances of 4" or more:  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2023 13:17:18 GMT -6
Add the 12Z EPS to the consensus. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS are all within a few miles of each other. What could go wrong? This is some remarkable consistency 4-5 days out
The GEFS and EPS are nearly identical
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2023 13:19:35 GMT -6
12Z GEPS and GEFS agreement on the 850mb low track is unusually close for 120 hours out. The UK is nearly a carbon copy too. One thing that's helping models is the storm is solidly rooted in the S stream and there's no funky phasing or blocking going on. It's just a classical Southern Low. |
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Lynne
Weather Weenie
Posts: 39 
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Post by Lynne on Jan 20, 2023 13:34:56 GMT -6
Long time lurker. Just reset the password and will be pleased to sign in to read the board.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 20, 2023 13:54:38 GMT -6
I looked through 500mb vorticity charts first and was bummed I was seeing the 500mb low over STL on the GFS. I'll admit I looked at the snow chart next and was amazed at how far south the snow was depicted. I continued with the other models with the vorticity charts. The 850 and 700 closed lows were in a good position (myself thinking) but I was still quite worried until I popped on here. I am still surprised with the 500mb track that the snow charts are so generous. I will quote..... "What could go wrong."
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 20, 2023 14:13:49 GMT -6
My experience is that the 500mb vorticity max track has more deviation from storm to storm with respect to axis of heaviest snow. So I don't worry about it as much. The 850mb low is like clockwork on almost all southern storms... about 90nm left of track. The trick in forecasting is getting that track correct. I've seen global models off by as much as 50-75nm at 24 hour lead time.
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