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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 22:13:48 GMT -6
Well the GFS isn’t going to be suppressed
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 22:14:32 GMT -6
No it should look similar to it’s last two runs
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 22:15:11 GMT -6
We have the crappy gfs on our side!
Definitely trended slower, but great result at hour 129.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 22:17:30 GMT -6
The 3” per hour death band the gfs has is fun to look at.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 22:18:50 GMT -6
It definitely bombs the storm out over us and as it’s pulling away, huge deeping and pressure dropping
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 22:20:00 GMT -6
It takes a while to change over then shuts the wrap around stuff off pretty quickly, most of its snow falls in 6-9 hours or so
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 19, 2023 22:20:28 GMT -6
When was the last time we had a perfect solution with a big storm on the horizon 5-6 days play out? Last winter Storm there were post of the snowstorm rules 6-10, 4-5,b1-3 days out ect...still so much can happen and we have to wait for the storm to come on shore then come over the Rockies and get reorganized. I hope it plays out for everyone's mental state.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 22:23:53 GMT -6
00z ggem is solid. A hair north of where the metro would want it, but at this range it looks great.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 22:25:09 GMT -6
Yes Gem is a little north and warm but still decent snow for metro north and west
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 22:26:15 GMT -6
When was the last time we had a perfect solution with a big storm on the horizon 5-6 days play out? Last winter Storm there were post of the snowstorm rules 6-10, 4-5,b1-3 days out ect...still so much can happen and we have to wait for the storm to come on shore then come over the Rockies and get reorganized. I hope it plays out for everyone's mental state. The Christmas Eve Eve storm was modeled as a prolific blizzard (significant snow and strong winds) as late as Sunday. Then, the models took a significant turn on Monday and the big story was the wind/cold by Thursday when the storm arrived. So yes, we need to get a lot closer to have real confidence in a significant storm. But we are here to surf the models and have fun. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2023 22:30:52 GMT -6
The heaviest snow on the gem is actually just south of st Louis. Not nw
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 22:32:12 GMT -6
Good model trends and so far the EPS and GEFS both have a fairly good consistent track on them. Things could change any day or time, but currently we’re in a good spot, I wish we had a little bit more cold air around at the start of the storm but it should still be able to generate enough in the stronger lift and wrap around. Could definitely start out as a period of rain before change over and definitely heavy wet snow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 22:32:51 GMT -6
Idk I think we’re in a pretty good spot on the Canadian  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 22:33:08 GMT -6
Yes it look’s totally different on pivotal vs. tropical tidbits
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 22:33:42 GMT -6
Much better look on pivotal
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 22:34:04 GMT -6
The heaviest snow on the gem is actually just south of st Louis. Not nw True, but the surface low is in southeastern Missouri which is starting to get close to discomfort. Seems like the primary snow band is being held too close to the low on some of these runs in my opinion. Also, Pivotal is far superior to Tropical Tidbits but comes out slightly slower so was harder to tell on the 6 hour maps. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 22:38:01 GMT -6
The heaviest snow on the gem is actually just south of st Louis. Not nw True, but the surface low is in southeastern Missouri which is starting to get close to discomfort. Seems like the primary snow band is being held too close to the low on some of these runs in my opinion. Also, Pivotal is far superior to Tropical Tidbits but comes out slightly slower so was harder to tell on the 6 hour maps. These big vertically stacked lows tend to keep things close to the chest |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 22:39:03 GMT -6
Extended range following the midweek storm looks interesting on both the gfs and ggem.
Gfs has some major cold building in to the region.
Ggem has a more active storm track with cold air around.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 19, 2023 22:39:12 GMT -6
The heaviest snow on the gem is actually just south of st Louis. Not nw True, but the surface low is in southeastern Missouri which is starting to get close to discomfort. Seems like the primary snow band is being held too close to the low on some of these runs in my opinion. Also, Pivotal is far superior to Tropical Tidbits but comes out slightly slower so was harder to tell on the 6 hour maps. It actually passes right over Memphis before lifting to the north! Even on the 00z! |
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