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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 10:33:39 GMT -6
12z ggem is 4-8 inches of concrete for the metro.
12z gfs is 2-5 inches of concrete. However, it looks like it is struggling to model the intensity of the deformation zone, so probably underdone based on the rest of what it is modeling.
Hard not to like the 12z suite so far.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 10:47:02 GMT -6
GFS is definitely solidly borderline with low-level temps but a storm of that magnitude would undoubtedly produce heavy snowfall within the deformation. Just need the favorable track and deepening low that models are showing so far this morning.
GFS also tries hard to close off a secondary mid-level low on Sunday but with the bulk of the deeper moisture getting swept well off to the NE by then, it's doubtful that would produce much. That's still looking like a minor/nuisance event.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2023 10:51:44 GMT -6
uk met is south for next week
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 10:52:01 GMT -6
Ukmet is still 700 miles south, bone dry
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 10:54:33 GMT -6
My rule this year is no excitement until the Ukmet looks good.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 10:55:56 GMT -6
Ukmet has a pretty good 500mb vort track, it just gets sheared out quicker than the other models. Looks like would spray some light snow up this way.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 10:56:57 GMT -6
My rule this year is no excitement until the Ukmet looks good. My rule is not to get excited until the snow is on the ground lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 10:58:21 GMT -6
About half of the gfs ensembles are south like the Ukmet, so still far from feeling good about a storm happening.
Ukmet providing that reality check.
Still good trends overall. Hopefully, the euro looks good.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 19, 2023 10:58:36 GMT -6
UKMET is messy and dry, but looking a little closer it's not as bad as it seems. The important 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb features are good with respect to location. If anything the surface low look out of place.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 11:05:58 GMT -6
The fact that there are still several models/members showing a southerly track is great at this range, IMO.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 11:06:24 GMT -6
GEFS seems to be honing in on I-44 for the max snow potential, similar to the EPS  |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 19, 2023 11:34:43 GMT -6
I might end this rainstorm with some mood flakes up
In SPI.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 11:46:00 GMT -6
It's way out there, but I'm starting to see a decent signal for a significant overrunning event towards next weekend...the pattern becomes pretty ripe for that with energy getting loaded in the SW and arctic airmass starting to ooze SEward. Looks like a piecemeal ejection setup with ice potential...from 9-10 days out.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 11:47:20 GMT -6
I might end this rainstorm with some mood flakes up In SPI. Tough to find any reports of SN anywhere around...FRZL is a bit too high unless you get under a heavy burst that can break through. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 19, 2023 12:28:24 GMT -6
The fact that there are still several models/members showing a southerly track is great at this range, IMO. Yeah, my biggest concern is missing to N. Although, this isn't the first time this year we've seen a great track with a strengthening low in the 990's at this stage only to get weaker and further south with each run. Our best snows come with marginal temps. Incredible how perfect GEM has looked the last 36-48 hours. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 12:28:57 GMT -6
Buckle up for this euro run
Looking like a monster
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 12:29:22 GMT -6
Euro should be a beast as well
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 19, 2023 12:30:01 GMT -6
Euro already looks a lot better than last nights run.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 19, 2023 12:33:09 GMT -6
Lock
It
In
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 12:36:19 GMT -6
Nice improvement from the 12z euro.
A small shift northwest would be great, but plenty of time for that.
Verbatim, max band from southern Missouri into Indiana.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 19, 2023 12:56:18 GMT -6
What does Euro show for snow amounts?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 13:05:55 GMT -6
What does Euro show for snow amounts? Cobb map has 7-9” in the metro with around a foot in the south and east counties |
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 19, 2023 13:06:51 GMT -6
What does Euro show for snow amounts? Looks like midnight to noon on Wednesday is prime time for snow according to Euro. What a beautiful track! Pretty broad swath of 0.4-0.8in QPF which if we're talking 10:1 ratios equals 4-8." The actual snow depth map paints 3-6" from a line from Springfield, MO to Rolla, MO to STL to Champaign, IL with slightly more east and south, especially in Indiana. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 19, 2023 13:07:12 GMT -6
It's way out there, but I'm starting to see a decent signal for a significant overrunning event towards next weekend...the pattern becomes pretty ripe for that with energy getting loaded in the SW and arctic airmass starting to ooze SEward. Looks like a piecemeal ejection setup with ice potential...from 9-10 days out. We are getting closer to the Feb 1st time frame. It seems to be our prime time for something almost every yr. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 13:19:28 GMT -6
The EPS is beautiful   |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 13:19:56 GMT -6
It's way out there, but I'm starting to see a decent signal for a significant overrunning event towards next weekend...the pattern becomes pretty ripe for that with energy getting loaded in the SW and arctic airmass starting to ooze SEward. Looks like a piecemeal ejection setup with ice potential...from 9-10 days out. We are getting closer to the Feb 1st time frame. It seems to be our prime time for something almost every yr. That does seem like a very favorable period climo-wise. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 13:21:36 GMT -6
The EPS is beautiful Only 4 or 5 members with the low tracking through SE MO...that's a great spot to be at ~5 days out with a deepening low scenario. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2023 13:25:44 GMT -6
This storm next week seems to try to get vertically stacked in a favorable region. I think that's going to help generating enough cold air and it may not be as marginal as one might not think. At first I thought that maybe hte models might be strengthing that surface low too quickly but when I look at the mid and upper level vorticity charts, it might not be. We should watch the trends on this for sure. If it does close off in the mid and upper levels, the placement of the heaviest snow band should be a little further south and there is the potential for a wind driven snow event especially south of I44 and north of the I-57/I55/US60 corridor interchange near Sikeston.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 13:29:04 GMT -6
Wow EPS is awesome
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2023 13:36:40 GMT -6
If you look at the Penn State storm history, back on February 25, 1979, iirc, the placement of that surface low was not that far south of the heavy snow. It became vertically stacked at all level of ams, and caused a 90 mile band of profound heavy snow with thunder and lightning and high winds.
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