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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 18, 2023 18:36:54 GMT -6
I know everybody hates rain in January but this is really good to see, IMO. We need to replenish that ground water heading into the warm season. Hopefully we can add some snow to the tally soon... We need a drought buster for any good chance of significant snow, IMO I dunno, that storm next week looks to pick up a lot of moisture off the Gulf...just need a good track. This is the best rain we've had in months...nice slow soaker |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 18, 2023 19:04:09 GMT -6
1.20" in my part of High Ridge
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 18, 2023 19:37:30 GMT -6
standing water everywhere around here. We've had plenty of rain, too much even. Stop with the rain in my area anyway, good lord
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 18, 2023 19:53:47 GMT -6
Suprised lambert only got .41 inches of rain today, I had 1.14 and seems like many in the area had .85 to 1.25, my yard is a swamp
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 18, 2023 20:02:17 GMT -6
Suprised lambert only got .41 inches of rain today, I had 1.14 and seems like many in the area had .85 to 1.25, my yard is a swamp My new weather station is a piezometer and not a traditional rain gauge, but 1.20 inches seems to correlate with the amount my front gutters were overflowing. |
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Post by REB on Jan 18, 2023 20:08:26 GMT -6
Ended up with 1.42”. Lots of standing water here. Muddy paws too.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 18, 2023 21:45:32 GMT -6
00z Icon absolutely crushes the metro with snow Tuesday night.
Beautiful storm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2023 21:57:00 GMT -6
I would give large sums of money for the icon to be correct.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 18, 2023 22:13:00 GMT -6
GFS looks good for next Tuesday night into Wednesday
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 18, 2023 22:16:15 GMT -6
Massive improvement in the 00z gfs.
Very good trends tonight.
Edit: The 00z ggem with a gem of a storm. Very nice run.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 18, 2023 22:24:59 GMT -6
I don't see this posted, so I'll put it out there - from today's AFD:
odel consensus is improving for the Tuesday system, with the
agreed upon idea being that a deeper trough tracks east out of the
southern Rockies into Texas and across the southern tier of the
country. There remain some timing and intensity differences, but
it`s fairly well agreed upon that we will be north of this one.
That will put us on the colder side of things, with snow the more
likely precipitation type if precipitation falls. It`s also
possible that this goes far enough south that we stay dry while
all the action occurs from Texas to the Deep South.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 18, 2023 22:36:25 GMT -6
I don't see this posted, so I'll put it out there - from today's AFD: odel consensus is improving for the Tuesday system, with the agreed upon idea being that a deeper trough tracks east out of the southern Rockies into Texas and across the southern tier of the country. There remain some timing and intensity differences, but it`s fairly well agreed upon that we will be north of this one. That will put us on the colder side of things, with snow the more likely precipitation type if precipitation falls. It`s also possible that this goes far enough south that we stay dry while all the action occurs from Texas to the Deep South. Covering all the bases at this range. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 18, 2023 22:40:52 GMT -6
3/3 so far on the models tonight
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 18, 2023 22:45:58 GMT -6
3/3 so far on the models tonight The Ukmet has performed remarkably well this year, so awaiting it to join the party before emotionally investing anything. Edit: 00z Ukmet looks south of the other models at hour 144. That makes me suspect I wake up to a suppressed 00z euro. Good trends, but not a clean sweep. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 0:41:10 GMT -6
Euro is further west this run and wraps up a big ol low that brings accumulating snowfall to the area next week.
So that's 4/4 on models tonight, with the Ukmet still being TBD
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 19, 2023 7:50:42 GMT -6
06z GFS brings my cautiously optimistic yet also pessimistic scenario to life.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 7:52:52 GMT -6
Yes 6z ICON took a huge shift Northwest as well, would look similar to 6zGFS with mostly cold rain , hopefully they go back today
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 19, 2023 8:25:10 GMT -6
Yesterday was enough cold rain to last me 5 years ……. Awful working outside yesterday
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 8:55:51 GMT -6
Definitely a notable N shift with the latest models...luckily the EC and ensemble means are substantially further S. Let's see how the 12z runs trend.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 9:36:04 GMT -6
12z Icon looks great for STL.
Near perfect track and pivot point.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 9:44:03 GMT -6
12z Icon looks great for STL. Near perfect track and pivot point. Gotta admire the consistency of the ICON...besides for some wobbles, it's been pretty locked in for days now. I've been looking at it more lately since the GFS lost my trust. Be interesting to see if the EC budges towards the others today. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2023 9:49:01 GMT -6
I agree the icon and gem seem to be way more consistent than the gfs and at times the euro. The new gfs has been terrible this huge run to run shifts
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Jan 19, 2023 9:55:12 GMT -6
The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete is a bit late reporting .76 from yesterday's rainy mess. His cup has been fixed so he is back to his usual accuracy. I would really like some snow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 10:12:27 GMT -6
GFS is a monster
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 10:12:47 GMT -6
That is a violent winter storm. Has some 2-4 inch per hour rates in the core band. Now, trend it a hair cooler and have it bomb out a little sooner/west and we can makeup the snow deficit in one storm. Strong winds as well, so probably near blizzard conditions for parts of the region verbatim. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2023 10:17:55 GMT -6
Big strong storm on GFS, not much snow here verbatim, have a feeling it would be way more than that..perfect track it looks like, At least the cutter is gone lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2023 10:18:24 GMT -6
987mb low bombing out to our east on that run
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 19, 2023 10:20:00 GMT -6
987mb low bombing out to our east on that run Lock it in! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 19, 2023 10:20:53 GMT -6
gem's gonna be a banger
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2023 10:27:34 GMT -6
A hair north of where you want it, but a beautiful storm. My favorite run so far given my backyard. |
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