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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 15, 2022 11:58:09 GMT -6
Long range pattern is looking uneventful  Uh oh we lost the atmosphere |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 15, 2022 11:59:27 GMT -6
"Zero wave pattern"
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 15, 2022 12:05:57 GMT -6
Long range pattern is looking uneventful Amazing model agreement |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 15, 2022 12:13:08 GMT -6
Long range pattern is looking uneventful Uh oh we lost the atmosphere Do you think they’ll issue an advisory? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 15, 2022 12:23:04 GMT -6
There is a "you're all dead" advisory coming out with the 4pm package
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Nov 15, 2022 12:41:04 GMT -6
If you want to see some significant snow, head to Buffalo. Their AFD is already talking about CIPS analog comparisons to a 5 foot snow event from 2000 due to lake effect snows later this week and weekend.
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 15, 2022 12:42:07 GMT -6
Well that was fun. All the snow in our yard has already melted away.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 15, 2022 13:01:25 GMT -6
Jokes aside above, but the GEFS, is showing that after a brief 'warm spell' Thanksgiving week, we go back into the ice box for the rest of the month after Thanksgiving into the first week of December. Looks like the stout ridge in the west coast into Alaska will hold tight the next several weeks with some brief intervals of flux which will allow occasional breaks from the pounding cold, but otherwise we look to be in an almost loaded gun pattern for awhile.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 15, 2022 13:02:28 GMT -6
Just a matter if moisture and energy can meet the cold at the right times.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 15, 2022 14:38:28 GMT -6
I'm not sure this season is going to follow the rules of "cold November = mild rest of the winter." The PV looks like it wants to play ball this year, and we already had the cold in October. Just feels a bit different to me.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 15, 2022 14:47:07 GMT -6
2013 and 2022 had average to below average hurricane seasons, and similar cold November. Still thinking it's a strong analog year. (2013/2014)
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 15, 2022 14:49:59 GMT -6
1.5” was total here. 7.5” for the season. I feel good about breaking double digits by Christmas but It also would shock me if my season total ends at 8”. I can't believe it's November 15th and we have already been hit with a major snow storm. Were you awake when that first mesoband rolled through during the first storm? I have never seen snow accumulate so fast. And yeah I won't be surprised if we finish with less than 10" |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 15, 2022 17:32:20 GMT -6
Jokes aside above, but the GEFS, is showing that after a brief 'warm spell' Thanksgiving week, we go back into the ice box for the rest of the month after Thanksgiving into the first week of December. Looks like the stout ridge in the west coast into Alaska will hold tight the next several weeks with some brief intervals of flux which will allow occasional breaks from the pounding cold, but otherwise we look to be in an almost loaded gun pattern for awhile. The GEFS I'm looking at shows nothing of the sort with a solidly -PNA and onshore flow that would flood NA with maritime airmass...*shrug* |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 15, 2022 20:35:47 GMT -6
Calling it 2" in Northern Wildwood. This is a middle avg after measuring in many locations. I measured at 2 different times this morning. It would've been nice to measure right after the heavier snow. As Snowstorm920 said, very hard to measure because of immediate melting and compaction. No solar insolation with borderline temps at 33-35* and all that snow stuck to the ground for a period of time. Congrats southerners! I really thought Lambert would've saw more since it's N of I-70 just barely. Though, the heavier bands ended up further SW in the metro.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 15, 2022 22:06:04 GMT -6
Any know what Lambert had? 1.1 inches |
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 16, 2022 8:21:41 GMT -6
May be a lot of mood flakes around today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2022 8:32:04 GMT -6
May be a lot of mood flakes around today. HRRR picking up on the snow shower potential this afternoon as the mid-level trof/vort max swings through. 700mb temps drop to -20*C...lapse rates should steepen quite a bit. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 16, 2022 9:23:07 GMT -6
May be a lot of mood flakes around today. HRRR picking up on the snow shower potential this afternoon as the mid-level trof/vort max swings through. 700mb temps drop to -20*C...lapse rates should steepen quite a bit. Some of the model soundings are showing instability intersecting the DGZ this afternoon. Might be a burst of big flakes here and there. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2022 9:50:38 GMT -6
I hadn't looked at soundings but with h85 temps dipping to around -12*C, I figured there would be some dendritic growth potential. Let's see how it plays out...N/Central IL is favored as usual, but I think the Metro may get in on some action later today.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 16, 2022 10:32:24 GMT -6
12z gfs and ggem look pretty interesting for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
Might be something to keep an eye on.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2022 11:06:07 GMT -6
CU really starting to bubble up this way and the radar is starting to light up to the NW...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2022 11:19:45 GMT -6
12z gfs and ggem look pretty interesting for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Might be something to keep an eye on. It does look active during that timeframe, but I'd be skeptical of the cold air connection that the GFS portrays. Hopefully we can pick up some beneficial rainfall from that system if nothing else. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 16, 2022 15:53:20 GMT -6
Something brewing around Thanksgiving for sure  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 16, 2022 16:33:22 GMT -6
Something brewing around Thanksgiving for sure I see that too this morning. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 16, 2022 16:38:39 GMT -6
The Rap shows a quick burst of snow tomorrow evening…. Something to watch
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 16, 2022 20:50:42 GMT -6
The Rap shows a quick burst of snow tomorrow evening…. Something to watch I'm tracking that potential. Angela and I have been discussing it. I wouldnt be suprised to see a dusting in a few spots. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 16, 2022 20:58:00 GMT -6
Seen a few snow squalls along arctic fronts that cause problems
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 16, 2022 21:27:38 GMT -6
I want to be in Buffalo so bad this weekend.
I can’t imagine getting 4 feet of snow in one storm.
Palm Sunday was like 18.5 inches and it was massive.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 16, 2022 22:15:42 GMT -6
I want to be in Buffalo so bad this weekend. I can’t imagine getting 4 feet of snow in one storm. Palm Sunday was like 18.5 inches and it was massive. Not the same as being there but here's a live stream from a storm chaser. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 16, 2022 22:32:10 GMT -6
This evening's sounding from Buffalo. Models indicate surface winds will become west-southwesterly at 25-30kts over the span of Lake Erie for an extended time. The lake surface is a very warm 50+F. That's going to be a hell of an experience somewhere in or near Buffalo where the narrow lake effect band sets up.  |
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