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Post by cardsnweather on Apr 5, 2022 20:55:50 GMT -6
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Apr 5, 2022 21:21:33 GMT -6
That cell is on a straight shot at the heart of STL...🌩⛈⚡️☔️
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 5, 2022 21:53:50 GMT -6
That cell collapsed fast.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2022 21:55:48 GMT -6
Wow. I hadn’t seen that one yet. That’s the craziest and dumbest one I’ve seen in a while. Good grief. Tornado Alley’s eastward shift becomes clearer every year it seems. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 5, 2022 22:57:43 GMT -6
Friday AM shows some potential of some pretty potent wet snow showers mixing with rain for much of the area. A couple decent vortexes and shortwaves moving through under the cyclonic flow with embedded cool pool air mass with 850MB temps and 700MB well below zero and surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. along with modest instability in the afternoon could re-ignite additional showers and perhaps grauple or sleet/wet snow mixing with the heavier rain showers even in the afternoon. More snow in the AM however. Might be some brief dustings under the heavier areas or places that see training of the showers. Could be an interesting day. Chilly Saturday, but all about back to Spring for Sunday into the early part of Next week. More rain and some storms beyond that.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 6, 2022 7:48:22 GMT -6
Next week might get the severe weather season rolling for us.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2022 8:59:01 GMT -6
Next week might get the severe weather season rolling for us. Looks pretty textbook at this range...potential multi-day outbreak for the middle of the country. |
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 6, 2022 10:16:17 GMT -6
Next week might get the severe weather season rolling for us. Looks pretty textbook at this range...potential multi-day outbreak for the middle of the country. Way out there in range like day 8 or so, but did you see the Euro's deepening 980mb low in Iowa with easily 60+ Tds in the warm sector next week? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2022 10:56:14 GMT -6
Looks pretty textbook at this range...potential multi-day outbreak for the middle of the country. Way out there in range like day 8 or so, but did you see the Euro's deepening 980mb low in Iowa with easily 60+ Tds in the warm sector next week? I haven't seen that run but they've been showing some pretty deep pressures with that ejecting cyclone with several days of return flow off the Gulf ahead of it. Fasten your seat belts! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 6, 2022 12:21:53 GMT -6
The Solar Cycle 25 is running way ahead of schedule and has already eclipsed initial predictions for 2025's peak date with nearly 3 years still to go until peak is reached. The fact it's only 2022 and looking at some data on another solar monitoring sites seems to indicate that we are staring down the barrel of the strongest solar cycle since the dawn of the Space Age! We could see activity levels not seen since the 1990s perhaps even the 1960s! Expect multiple opportunities to see the Northern Lights near the peak of the cycle depending on flare strength, facing, and whether or not strong Earth directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) can impact our planet without missing (far from an exact science). In addition the chance of a damaging flare and radiation storms will be higher then the previous 2 cycles. It will be interesting to see how a stronger, hotter, and more active sun will affect the climate going forward the next several years.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 6, 2022 14:00:02 GMT -6
Wow
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2022 19:26:38 GMT -6
Found the first morel of the season today...just getting started.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Apr 6, 2022 20:31:54 GMT -6
Found the first morel of the season today...just getting started. I'm hoping to get out looking tomorrow. Also need to take down my pop up blind unless the weather has already done it for me! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 7, 2022 8:23:49 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 7, 2022 8:57:10 GMT -6
Colorado State Machine Learning Program is showing the potential for multiple days of severe weather around here next week  |
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Post by RyanD on Apr 7, 2022 13:20:54 GMT -6
That cell collapsed fast. On an unrelated note, was that you that called into Coasttocoastam the other night when they had on Mr Lobo? |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 7, 2022 15:47:11 GMT -6
Virginia is impressive today
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 7, 2022 18:45:35 GMT -6
First... welcome back Labrat! Great to have you back where you belong!
Second... who let winter in the backdoor! Enough already!
Third... interesting week coming next week and some very challenging forecasting ahead...especially late Sunday through Monday. Major differences in the handling of a lead wave in this timeframe have major consequences on how far south a front may penetrate Monday... if it does at all... and a resulting rain/storm threat that has further major impacts on the evolution of whatever develops for the middle of the week. The EURO says... what early week front? GFS says... there is definitely going to be a frontal passage. Either one could be correct. On one side, the GFS has been doing a decent job... and has outpaced the Euro at times... enough so that I can't throw it aside. I'm carrying a chance for showers (or thundershowers) from late Sunday through Monday in a tip of the cap to the GFS...and holding temps back a little...using a compromise of the GEFS and EPS temps for Monday. I have no doubt my temp is either too warm or too cold... but shooting for the middle for now and will adjust accordingly later as trends become more clear. Tuesday I'm going to hesitantly keep dry for now as what should be a rather impressive warm front lifts north and opens the door to warm spring temps well into the 70s Tuesday afternoon... and going with 80 for Wednesday...ahead of the storm threat. A Euro solution will make the mid-week system more straightforward. The GFS solution will make for some really messy forecasting of outflow boundaries, slower warm front, etc. I personally prefer a cleaner solution... which probably means the opposite is the best bet.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 7, 2022 18:49:26 GMT -6
And before anyone asks... I'll probably warm-up a new thread this weekend.
And not to be forgotten... the wet snow potential late tonight into Friday morning. IT's mainly just token flakes...
As for the freeze tomorrow night.... I have my doubts about how impactful the cold will be tomorrow night for two reasons... the timing of the clearing and the fact that winds do not completely diminish. Between the two, I think the best chance for impacts on vegetation from the cold tomorrow night will be north of the metro STL area. I actually think there may be a better chance for sub-freezing temps and frost formation Saturday night into Sunday morning over southern Illinois where the combination of light winds, clear skies and favorable ridge orientation could allow temps to tank east of the river for several hours. I'm not saying this will end the freeze/frost concerns for the season yet either. But with each passing day... it gets less and less likely!
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Post by dschreib on Apr 8, 2022 5:47:16 GMT -6
Drove through some slushy raindrops from Marissa into work. Snowing in Overland.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 8, 2022 7:01:57 GMT -6
flakes in U-town
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 8, 2022 7:08:11 GMT -6
Some flakes in Troy, MO earlier.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 8, 2022 7:18:26 GMT -6
Some Minor accumulations this morning around KFAM area on non-roadway surfaces.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 8, 2022 7:20:57 GMT -6
Flurries 7 miles west of De Soto. Temp jumped from 35 to 36*. I was very surprised and disheartened to see the widespread freeze warnings up. I was hoping for the 34* low that was in the forecast the last several days. More covering up to do I guess.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Apr 8, 2022 7:25:17 GMT -6
Flurries in OFallon IL.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Apr 8, 2022 7:44:11 GMT -6
Had a few decent snow showers this morning
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 8, 2022 7:51:17 GMT -6
Opening Day was a blast, but definitely cold and windy. The nostalgia was in high supply.
Looks like some kinks to workout for the concession stands. Easy 45 minute waits for very simple things like a burger, nachos, or beer.
Wainwright looked great, offense looks good. If we play the Pirates every game, we should be in good shape.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Apr 8, 2022 7:57:09 GMT -6
Few flakes flying n Cedar Hill. So ready for this year to warm up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 8, 2022 8:36:27 GMT -6
Several bouts of SNSH in Brighton this AM...at least one lowered visibility quite a bit.
I agree with Chris...tonight's setup is far from ideal for a hard freeze/frost event with lingering cloud cover and sustained W/NW wind.
GFS with the snowstorm Easter weekend...get outta town!
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Post by amstilost on Apr 8, 2022 8:44:04 GMT -6
Holy smokes a graupel storm going on here. 'Practically' a white out. outbuilding roof becoming white, which is saying something with early April sun angle.
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