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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 15:44:34 GMT -6
The PSU EWALL 4 Panel Reanalysis charts still work too...kinda janky by today's standards but still a valuable tool.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 15:47:59 GMT -6
I majored in MIS and my career is behind a computer but I can't figure out how to get a jpg to reflect on screen in this forum using PC  You have to upload to a server like Imgur and then C&P the link using the little picture tab. After 92 tries, I got it to work. Christmas of '09.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 15:50:44 GMT -6
Burst of Hamsters per the GFS around Sunrise Saturday.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 15:55:06 GMT -6
GFS is awesome from midnight to 9 a.m. like todays trends
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 15:56:16 GMT -6
gfs is juicy too 1" plus qpf metro points north up the river
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 16:03:29 GMT -6
Nice little 'bonus' piece of energy Saturday late night into Sunday AM. Pretty amped up shortwave moving through with some lift. Limited moisture but I could see a surprise 1-2" out of it for some.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 13, 2022 16:08:52 GMT -6
Just pulling up some forecast soundings within the zone of 700mb flow deformation and frontogenesis for the NAM & GFS. You can see omega maxing out in/near the DGZ with a decently deep layer between -5C to 0C where flakes become most "sticky". Winds aren't ideal at 20+kts at 925mb but not terrible either. Verbatim would probably get excellent dendrite formation and decent aggregation. Modelled Kuchera ratios of 5-7:1 during this period would likely be too conservative with strong lift, dynamic cooling, and larger flakes.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 16:09:43 GMT -6
18Z GEFS cuts back on QPF a bit through 60 hours.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2022 16:12:10 GMT -6
21Z RAP looks pretty Swell.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 16:14:16 GMT -6
Awesome runs tonight wow
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 16:18:20 GMT -6
I could arguably see the winter storm watch pulled down to the metro tonight with these trends
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 16:21:29 GMT -6
Lol geez
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 16:27:29 GMT -6
Half of the QPF with the GFS is rain. If not more than half. [br Yeah it's a great trend. The rest of the models are coming in warmer as well with a very delayed transition. IF THE MODELS COME IN ANY FURTHER LEFT WITH THE TROUGH ORIENTATION THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE EVEN LATER. AND THE MOSTLY FGEN DRIVEN AREA WILL BE TO FAR EAST OF THE RIVER.     Start praying |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 16:39:27 GMT -6
What stage are we at again?
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 13, 2022 16:44:17 GMT -6
What stage are we at again? 8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.) |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 16:46:45 GMT -6
I would not worry too much about rain as chris alluded too
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Post by anotherwxfan on Jan 13, 2022 16:46:52 GMT -6
I don't know what stage we are on Brtn. I do know I don't subscribe to cable and yet I have Comedy Central right here on my desktop.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 16:47:49 GMT -6
What stage are we at again? COLD NOVEMBER RAIN... |
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Post by birddog on Jan 13, 2022 16:50:22 GMT -6
Is it bread and milk time? Lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 16:52:32 GMT -6
Its not gonna be much rain, heck relax guys
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 17:04:50 GMT -6
Just enjoy the snow, when chris and the nws start to worry bout the rain then we should worry, until then status quo. Mores qpf can mean more snow if there is not much rain, thats why I am excited
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 13, 2022 17:05:36 GMT -6
What stage are we at again? COLD NOVEMBER RAIN... You crack me up. Never fails. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 13, 2022 17:30:49 GMT -6
Just took a peak at the CIPS analog site. I didn't go through all of them, just a few of the top, and as suspected no good analogs. Most appeared to be more classic southern storm with west to east oriented snowfields actually.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 17:42:50 GMT -6
I'm off tomorrow thru Sunday. I'll be watching models and posts tomorrow while having a few drinks. Unbeknownst to the models it is up to them whether I will be a pissed off mean drunk or a happy go lucky silly drunk. These are important times my friends.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 13, 2022 17:48:28 GMT -6
What stage are we at again? With my medical background, I reflexively thought ‘bargaining’ (Kubler Ross). |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 17:53:37 GMT -6
What stage are we at again? 8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.) Ah, yes...sounds about right! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2022 18:09:02 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 18:09:52 GMT -6
I'm off tomorrow thru Sunday. I'll be watching models and posts tomorrow while having a few drinks. Unbeknownst to the models it is up to them whether I will be a pissed off mean drunk or a happy go lucky silly drunk. These are important times my friends. You should be ok. The FGEN band is going to start out to far NE of you and you will probably start as 🌧️. However you are in a great spot to see 6 hours roughly of very heavy snow as the mid levels close off to our West and bring overlapping lift South through East Central MO You should be good for 4"+ |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 18:12:26 GMT -6
18z euro Pretty juicy  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 18:17:32 GMT -6
how much of that is rain 920?
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