Chris's Corner - Could This Be the First 1"+ Snow of Season?

[cozpregon]

Settle down

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

Front is definitely penetrating further south on the 00z gfs than the 12z or 18z runs.

Watch out

[bdgwx]

My first thought was that those Kuchera charts are going to be too high because that much snow will surely compact. But in looking at the Cobb charts I'm seeing 19:1 final ratios near the bullseye in Concord, New Hampshire with 38". The NAM's own dynamic snow depth product confirms these high totals.

[Chris Higgins]

There is a MAJOR shift in the GFS solution for next week... in particular with the cold air over the great lakes down to the ohio valley. This is a critical change and will likely have a major impact on the out output of the rest of this run.... fasten your seatbelts... a kaboom may be coming.

The upper ridging is much less pronounced from the southeast into the great lakes. This has profound implications for the system as it ejects in our direcction.

[addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo]

540 line on 00z GFS much more progressive on this run. Thinking this run will be a Kaboom.

[Snowstorm920]

Ya GFS looks like a long duration ice and snow event

[Snowman99]

Gfs is going to be nuts

[landscaper]

Nice trends so far

[Snowstorm920]

Jan 27, 2022 22:13:43 GMT -6 bdgwx said:

My first thought was that those Kuchera charts are going to be too high because that much snow will surely compact. But in looking at the Cobb charts I'm seeing 19:1 final ratios near the bullseye in Concord, New Hampshire with 38". The NAM's own dynamic snow depth product confirms these high totals.

I was actually looking at some of the Cobb data for Boston earlier because I had the same thought. I think the 18z NAM had like 40” in Boston using the Cobb method lol. The 00z NAM was “only” like 2 feet on the Cobb chart. 

[Snowstorm920]

The GFS looks pretty similar to what the GEFS and EPS mean have been suggesting

Good stuff

[Chris Higgins]

The final shortwave never does much... which is surprising considering how strong it is. I would comment further but pivotal weather just crashed

[jmg378s]

Yeah I can't get to COD or Pivotal

[bdgwx]

Same. The east coast snow lovers are wreaking havoc with my model analysis right now.

[grizzlebeard]

I'm patiently waiting for someone who knows what they are talking about to use the term "Memphis Low" when talking about the models and storm track. Then I'll know we are game on. And yes, I know we are way too far out, but it seems like forever since we had a classic set up that creates ice storm worry to the south and confusion over the I-70 corridor for the newbies.

I'm gonna go ahead and stock up on adult beverages.

NEWBIES AND LURKERS: Many who post here are just reacting to models which are fickle. Pay attention to those who post with moderate opinions and don't whiplash back and forth based on the models. Ignore these "Model Worshippers" and instead, rely on those who are "steady as she goes". It will be very obvious. Number of posts DO NOT always translate into people who actually know what they are talking about.

For now, I just hope this thing sticks around for the entertainment and educational value it will provide through next weekend!!

[Chris Higgins]

The GFS then goes on to react to the alleged snow pack and goes nuts with the cold. I always try and mute the effects of snowpack on low temps in the extended when it involves assumed snowfall that has not happened yet. If we miss the snow... temperatures are likely to be much less extreme. If the snowpack of 6+ materializes next week.. then those sub-zero overnight lows will be possible for sure.

[guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters]

Glenn is talking about our storm next week. Glenn doesn't generally get too hyped about snowstorms. So for him to be saying it could be something significant this far in advance really waves red flags.

[Chris Higgins]

Jan 27, 2022 22:25:26 GMT -6 grizzlebeard said:

I'm patiently waiting for someone who knows what they are talking about to use the term "Memphis Low" when talking about the models and storm track. Then I'll know we are game on. And yes, I know we are way too far out, but it seems like forever since we had a classic set up that creates ice storm worry to the south and confusion over the I-70 corridor for the newbies.

I'm gonna go ahead and stock up on adult beverages.

NEWBIES AND LURKERS: Many who post here are just reacting to models which are fickle. Pay attention to those who post with moderate opinions and don't whiplash back and forth based on the models. Ignore these "Model Worshippers" and instead, rely on those who are "steady as she goes". It will be very obvious. Number of posts DO NOT always translate into people who actually know what they are talking about.

For now, I just hope this thing sticks around for the entertainment and educational value it will provide through next weekend!!

The GFS shows a classic Memphis Low.... at least for now.

Considering the evidence we have in hand now... it's worth elevating this from a storm of interest to a full "WATCHER" status!

No need to change ANYthing we have out there right now... steady as she goes.

Rain to winter mix to snow from Tuesday night through early Thursday (at least).

[cozpregon]

When you go from the jet structure digging into the trough... that shorter more compact jet will want to dig. Also the jet going across the Lakes is significantly further south.

[bdgwx]

Yet again there is a significant change in the way the GFS is handling the transfer of energy through Pacific ridging off the west coast and yet again that energy off the coast of Alaska still evolves into a robust trough in the CONUS. We've mentioned this before. Some flow regimes are more stable than others. This may be one of those regimes in which regardless of how the tugs and pulls play out in the overall flow it will still end with a storm in the middle of the country next week. That's good in the sense that we have increasing confidence that someone is going to get a decent snow out this. But in the end the details matter if you want it in your backyard. At least we have something interesting to watch and talk about other than the east coast getting their annual once-in-a-lifetime snowstorm.

[Worldserieschampions (Chicago)]

00z ggem looks less flat/south than the gfs through hour 126. Let’s see what we get.

Edit: 00z ggem and ukmet are much further north than the gfs. Ukmet has temps around 55 in southern Missouri when the gfs has them in the upper 30s.

Long way to go here.

[Chris Higgins]

Jan 27, 2022 22:40:48 GMT -6 Worldserieschampions (Chicago) said:

00z ggem looks less flat/south than the gfs through hour 126. Let’s see what we get.

Edit: 00z ggem and ukmet are much further north than the gfs. Ukmet has temps around 55 in southern Missouri when the gfs has them in the upper 30s.

Long way to go here.

For sure... but Canadian has a better defined deformation band with the trailing "main" shortwave... which is what I would expect given the strength being shown in the models this evening.
Now... is it in the right place... tooooo early to hang a hat on that.

Key message this evening... the ingredients are on the table for a major storm over the middle of the nation. Details... I don't have them. Basic generalities... I do have those and they continue to echo the same message as yesterday... rain...changing to some sort of an icy mix... and eventually snow. Accumulations of winter precipitation (ice and/or snow) are possible over a large part of our area.

[bdgwx]

I can't see what is happening in the Pacific on the UKMET because of the limited regions available on PW but it looks like some Pacific energy is phasing into the northern stream around California. It is harder to visualize plausible evolutions after HR144 but if I had to guess I'd say the 500mb level could start closing off. Either way and yet again despite the significant difference it appears a system of some kind is inevitable.

[Snowstorm920]

GEFS members snow totals using 10:1

The greatest threat is icing will be just south of those snow fields

Looks like every member has a significant storm in the middle of the country

[Chris Higgins]

Jan 27, 2022 23:20:15 GMT -6 Snowstorm920 said:

GEFS members snow totals using 10:1

The greatest threat is icing will be just south of those snow fields

Looks like every member has a significant storm in the middle of the country

I vote for 7. Everyone's happy... no complaining. Clean and easy. Done.

[addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo]

EURO is going to be HUGE!

[Snowstorm920]

And kaboom goes the euro

[Snowstorm920]

Lets just go ahead and lock that run in

[amstilost]

Just a little south of the #7 GEFS run. I certainly like this possibility. Pretty cool how the lead 500mb closed low gets squashed into the GOM. I think this is a visual of what BRTN was saying a couple of days ago about the ridge was not going to get pumped up as much as the models were showing earlier. Please correct me if I'm off on that.

[addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo]

Its becoming more clear that models are advancing the cold front much faster now than previous runs bringing the snowband further south with the northern phase. Great trends tonight. Sleep easy folks.

[BRTNWXMAN]

The arctic air will not be denied.

The revolution will not be televised!