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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2022 10:12:55 GMT -6
Icon sure is locked and loaded. We'll see how far south the freezing line gets.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2022 10:27:53 GMT -6
Looks like the gfs is one big one. Sh1t load of rain here
Ice and snow well northwest. Meh.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 10:30:48 GMT -6
Looks like the gfs is one big one. Sh1t load of rain here Ice and snow well northwest. Meh. Eh, only need a subtle shift southeast at this range to turn that run into a monster winter storm for the area. I bet there are quite a few good ensemble members this run. I’ll take it at this range. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 10:38:40 GMT -6
At this range, I’m just glad the GFS is showing a storm.
We have the next 7 days to iron out the details
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2022 10:39:27 GMT -6
Still don't want one big one. That never works out here.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2022 10:40:34 GMT -6
Yep..plenty of time. Lots of model changes coming.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 10:45:35 GMT -6
At this range, I’m just glad the GFS is showing a storm. We have the next 7 days to iron out the details Have to like seeing the gfs with another big storm behind it. This is prime time. Let’s get it going. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 10:55:04 GMT -6
12z ggem looks very subdued with wave #1.
A little rain with wave #1 and the wave #2 looks solid for winter weather.
In fact, the more I look at it, this run is pretty close to ideal.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 11:03:03 GMT -6
12z ggem looks very subdued with wave #1. A little rain with wave #1 and the wave #2 looks solid for winter weather. In fact, the more I look at it, this run is pretty close to ideal. Ya that’s a monster winter storm it has. Looks similar to last nights euro |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 11:06:57 GMT -6
12z ggem looks very subdued with wave #1. A little rain with wave #1 and the wave #2 looks solid for winter weather. In fact, the more I look at it, this run is pretty close to ideal. Ya that’s a monster winter storm it has. Looks similar to last nights euro The icing it has in southeastern Missouri is crazy. The snow it has for the metro is equally crazy 😂 Why does it have to be 180 hours away? |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 26, 2022 11:10:07 GMT -6
Let’s remember how crazy the GFS has been this winter…. Our Saturday snow this year it had 31 inches for cape 48hrs before the storm and they received nothing……. With our luck it will nail this one though lol
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 26, 2022 11:12:45 GMT -6
GEMM/CMC/Canadian is a footer for the metro and especially just to the west.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2022 11:15:51 GMT -6
GEM is what dreams are made of.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 11:16:11 GMT -6
Let’s remember how crazy the GFS has been this winter…. Our Saturday snow this year it had 31 inches for cape 48hrs before the storm and they received nothing……. With our luck it will nail this one though lol Models have definitely been erratic this season, which isn't surprising given the La Nina and the trend of recent years. But we are also still about a week out from this, so you'd expect large variations in solutions. Ensembles are the way to go right now...and they certainly support a major winter storm nearby next week. That's about all you can really say at this point, besides half educated speculation. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2022 11:21:36 GMT -6
What a dream storm long drawn out moderate snow with 12”-20” totals , lock it in!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 11:25:37 GMT -6
What a dream storm long drawn out moderate snow with 12”-20” totals , lock it in! Seems GEM-ish, lol Bastardi didn't call it the "Crazy Canadian" for nothing  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 26, 2022 11:26:35 GMT -6
I've been saying it for years now...we are WAY overdue for a good ol' southern MO ice storm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 11:28:08 GMT -6
Quite a few big boys in the 12z GEFS. I’m particularly fond of ensemble 10. What’s not shown on here is the icing. Looks like several runs have big ice storms for parts of the area  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 11:30:01 GMT -6
I've been saying it for years now...we are WAY overdue for a good ol' southern MO ice storm. We really are. The ice aspect of this storm concerns me. Especially with some models like last night's EC showing a big lobe of the vortex decending into the lower 48 behind the exiting storm system. Power outages and deep cold are not a good combination. Like I've said before this winter...the airmass in the icebox this year is the real deal...often Siberian in origin. Get the right jet/trof orientation, and look out below. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 12:30:49 GMT -6
In regard to the Northeast snowstorm, it looks like the Euro is caving to the GFS and its less amplified solution.
We've seen that trend transpire so many times around here recently
It really does seem like the current GFS has a leg up of the Euro
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2022 12:43:10 GMT -6
Euro looks like it will be pretty good, not as cold as Gem but a similar setup
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 12:46:31 GMT -6
Another huge overrunning ice/snowstorm on the euro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 12:48:25 GMT -6
Beautiful setup on that run, wow
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2022 12:50:17 GMT -6
RAP and HRRR slowly beefing up for tomorrow morning. Still way too much dry air to get past, however. Almost tries to slow down and stall. If nothing else, could be a nice mood snow in the morning.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2022 12:53:50 GMT -6
12z EURO is a Top 5 snowstorm for parts of NE. Although, they get a Top 5 snowstorm every 5 years.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 12:57:40 GMT -6
Beautiful setup on that run, wow That's some real deal cold behind the system too. I know BRTN mentioned it, but the potential for a significant ice storm followed by arctic air is worrisome to say the least. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 26, 2022 13:06:24 GMT -6
Cards, your right, I haven’t been paying any attention to the models for tomorrow morning. Definitely a decent chance of a dusting to 1/2” type setup with frozen ground coming in overnight and early morning. Even a Chance At some light freezing drizzle as well
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 26, 2022 13:37:41 GMT -6
Beautiful setup on that run, wow That's some real deal cold behind the system too. I know BRTN mentioned it, but the potential for a significant ice storm followed by arctic air is worrisome to say the least. Yeah, hopefully the euro is overdoing the cold. That is the type of stuff where you walk outside without gloves and your hands bleed. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2022 13:43:31 GMT -6
If we had any snow on the ground we probably would have been below 0 3 or 4 times this month, including this morning. Euro is so cold because it's seeing a good snow and ice pack across the area. We will see.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 26, 2022 14:05:26 GMT -6
Based on the 12Z UKMET vorticity pattern we would expect height falls to be occurring to the southeast of the vorticity maxima into Arizona possibly even to the extent getting a low closed off at 500 mb similar to the Euro. Basically what I'm saying is that even though the timeframe is passed the end of the UKMET run we can confidently say that the UKMET is consistent with an active pattern somewhere in the middle of the country mid to late next week. Obviously snow is what we want, but we cannot eliminate ice or plain old rain at this time.
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