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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 25, 2022 16:01:53 GMT -6
Wonder what that string of echoes is on the radar diagonally dividing St. Clair County in half right into downtown Belleville?
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Post by amstilost on Jan 25, 2022 16:24:21 GMT -6
Refinery in Roxanna maybe....I can't zoom to street level. Just a guess.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2022 16:47:19 GMT -6
Refinery in Roxanna maybe....I can't zoom to street level. Just a guess. I'd say youre correct |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2022 17:23:51 GMT -6
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Post by thechaser on Jan 25, 2022 18:16:22 GMT -6
I missed out on the huge snow totals to my north and northwest, but I at least got a decent snow storm in Garden City, KS. imgur.com/a/HvhgSCv |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2022 19:13:00 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen is talking about another stretched PV in early February and potentially a more significant disruption to follow.
Let’s make it a February to remember like last year.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 25, 2022 20:30:45 GMT -6
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 25, 2022 20:31:16 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen is talking about another stretched PV in early February and potentially a more significant disruption to follow. Let’s make it a February to remember like last year. I didn’t think his free blog was out until Wednesdays…hmmm |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 25, 2022 20:36:17 GMT -6
wowzers
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2022 21:30:20 GMT -6
Scientists are learning more about the Tonga eruption. As of right now it is only a VEI 4, but that comes with a big asterix. It is ranked low because its ejecta volume was relatively low. It's plume height on the other hand is more indicative of a VEI 6 or higher eruption. It is said to have potentially exceeded 150,000 ft and might have actually been toeing the line to the mesosphere. It is said to be the shortest Plinian eruption on record lasting only 10 minutes. As a point of reference Krakatoa released 800 petajoules of energy in 4.5 hours. That is an average of 50 terawatts of power. Tonga released 40 petajoules in 10 minutes according to NASA. That is an average of 66 terawatts of power. That means Tonga's power dissipation matches or even exceeds that of Krakatoa at least in terms of explosivity rate. I was also able to confirm that area weather stations recorded the pressure wave not once but twice as the shockwave got reflected back. Another interesting observations was the meteotsunamis that it caused as far away as the Caribbean Sea which isn't even in the same ocean basin. Actually this may be the first volcanically triggered meteotsunami ever observed. Though according to one expert meteotsunami may not even be the right word for it since that is a phenomenon typically associated with slower moving atmospheric pressure waves. Based on other expert commentary I've read the eruption may be better described as a detonation than a Plinian-style eruption. The unique structure of the caldera sitting around 100-200 meters below sea level is said to be an optimal configuration for the detonation since the water column was large enough to yield a large steam explosion but shallow enough to not be able to contain it. It is an interesting eruption that I suspect will be studied for decades.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 25, 2022 22:08:00 GMT -6
Interesting... I was just about to post the same thing.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 25, 2022 22:23:23 GMT -6
Here's some video from that area. I was trying to figure out the storm intensity. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2022 22:31:16 GMT -6
Gfs has rain in part one then part 2 is basically too far south lol. We get some northern edge flakes
Lots of sorting out to do with this one
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 25, 2022 22:35:07 GMT -6
Icon at the end of its run is setting things up nicely. GFS is as well. Starting to look like an actual shot at a real winter storm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2022 22:42:58 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen is talking about another stretched PV in early February and potentially a more significant disruption to follow. Let’s make it a February to remember like last year. I didn’t think his free blog was out until Wednesdays…hmmm He tweets teasers. I’m guessing there hasn’t been huge uptake in his $25 early release business model. I would pay for his machine learning model and other analytics though. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2022 23:08:37 GMT -6
GEM looks like rain/ice on wave one and snow on wave 2
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 26, 2022 0:55:40 GMT -6
Well that's an interesting run of the Euro. Might as well get these runs out of the way early...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2022 0:57:51 GMT -6
That’s a hell of an ice and snow storm on the euro next week
Wave one would be significant icing followed by several inches of snow with wave 2
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 26, 2022 1:14:42 GMT -6
The Euro is definitely interesting. Of course, it will never play out lime that... at least not exactly... but that is an interesting series of events even if it is close.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 4:45:09 GMT -6
The biggest question next week is how strong and anchored the SE ridge gets and whether or not there is enough push from the N stream to get the boundary through and cold air in place before the bulk of energy and moisture rides over it. Some of these model solutions have looked awfully suspect with thier handling of the lead wave(s) coming through the N stream, almost stalling it out across the N Plains/S Canada for what seems like forever. I don't think that looks realistic and the models have shown bias here. The tricky thing is we are undergoing a major pattern change and this is a setup that models haven't really "seen" yet this season. But I suspect they will trend flatter with less ridging across the Lakes/OHV over time with a more progressive N stream wave and piecemeal energy ejection off the main system in the SW. That allows the shallow arctic air to become entrenched across the region. The EURO isn't far off from roughly what I'm expecting to happen, so trends are fairly encouraging so far. But the ice potential here is HUGE and that's concerning.
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Post by bororug on Jan 26, 2022 6:24:19 GMT -6
Down to 3 this morning in rural Festus.
Excited to see how everything unfolds next week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 7:48:33 GMT -6
Bottomed out at 0.1* in Brighton...missed it by that much, lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 26, 2022 8:17:29 GMT -6
I'm issuing a falling iguana watch for Florida this weekend.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 26, 2022 8:34:09 GMT -6
The models look similar through hour 144. I picked that hour because that's all we have the UKMET through. However, the UKMET does seem to be diverging from the ECMWF and GFS regarding the evolution of the northern stream energy and the southern cutoff low. It has the cutoff low diving into the GOM and the northern stream energy propagating more zonally whereas the ECMWF and GFS have the cutoff low moving across the southern states with the northern stream energy starting to dive southeast. That doesn't mean the UKMET doesn't have a storm, but it does mean that it would have evolved differently had it ran out longer. Being only 12 hours further into this I'm not expecting a substantially clearer picture with the 12Z runs today. But using quasi-geostrophic theory you can sometimes mentally extrapolate out the height tendencies another 24 hours or so. We might be able to guess at the UKMET evolution through 168 hours and see how well it matches the other models.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 8:40:49 GMT -6
The models look similar through hour 144. I picked that hour because that's all we have the UKMET through. However, the UKMET does seem to be diverging from the ECMWF and GFS regarding the evolution of the northern stream energy and the southern cutoff low. It has the cutoff low diving into the GOM and the northern stream energy propagating more zonally whereas the ECMWF and GFS have the cutoff low moving across the southern states with the northern stream energy starting to dive southeast. That doesn't mean the UKMET doesn't have a storm, but it does mean that it would have evolved differently had it ran out longer. Being only 12 hours further into this I'm not expecting a substantially clearer picture with the 12Z runs today. But using quasi-geostrophic theory you can sometimes mentally extrapolate out the height tendencies another 24 hours or so. We might be able to guess at the UKMET evolution through 168 hours and see how well it matches the other models. I suspect we'll see something inbetween those diverging solutions with a flatter downstream ridge and weaker, more strung out system overall. But we've got a long way to go. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2022 9:11:52 GMT -6
HRRR showing flakes flying tomorrow morning. Some could see moderate snow falling.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2022 9:12:51 GMT -6
Can't believe no one is mentioning the hi-res nam for tomorrow morning...
Soundings don't look incredible for decent size flakes (Dealing with a lot of dry air) but could breakthrough and be a surprise for some. Will turn the ground white.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 9:19:49 GMT -6
Can't believe no one is mentioning the hi-res nam for tomorrow morning... Soundings don't look incredible for decent size flakes (Dealing with a lot of dry air) but could breakthrough and be a surprise for some. Will turn the ground white. I noticed the GEFS mean was printing out some hundredths...might be a lil' something there. Definitely a boatload of dry low-level air to overcome though. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 26, 2022 9:26:30 GMT -6
Goodness, the EURO absolutely demolishes CT, MA, NYC, RI and Eastern NJ and Maine.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 26, 2022 9:30:42 GMT -6
Goodness, the EURO absolutely demolishes CT, MA, NYC, RI and Eastern NJ and Maine. I get the feeling that storm is a Boston Bruiser. It's not your classical 50/50 low situation where the storm gets tucked in near the coast...I think the boundary is going to settle far enough OTS to where it's more of a coastal snowstorm than inland/I-95. But we'll see how it trends. Definitely has the look of a significant storm. |
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