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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 9:31:38 GMT -6
ICON is pretty dang juicy with almost an inch of QPF in the metro They have some of that falling tomorrow evening as rain too. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 9:31:54 GMT -6
The ratios look like garbage for the first few hours. The QPF output is nice. But during most of the QPF it's going to be like 8-1. I think anyone getting over 5" is going to be very very hard unless the QPF output end up aroud 0.65+. Would agree...definitely gonna be a slop storm on the front end. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 9:33:52 GMT -6
The ratios look like garbage for the first few hours. The QPF output is nice. But during most of the QPF it's going to be like 8-1. I think anyone getting over 5" is going to be very very hard unless the QPF output end up aroud 0.65+. The WAA trending stronger is nice, but it's also a bit of a double-edged sword with ratios being lower and mixing issues |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 9:36:38 GMT -6
The ratios look like garbage for the first few hours. The QPF output is nice. But during most of the QPF it's going to be like 8-1. I think anyone getting over 5" is going to be very very hard unless the QPF output end up aroud 0.65+. The WAA trending stronger is nice, but it's also a bit of a double-edged sword with ratios being lower and mixing issues It really seems like the river valley is in the best spot for colder mid-level temps and the Fgen enhancement. Many model runs have been showing a finger of higher QPF with that and hence higher snowfall totals. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 9:41:27 GMT -6
The Fgen shows up pretty good at 06z on the latest NAM  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 9:43:36 GMT -6
The Fgen shows up pretty good at 06z on the latest NAM HRRR as well. Those are going to be some heavy, wet flakes with very light wind. Always cool to watch. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 9:45:55 GMT -6
The "dry slot" showing up across central MO appears to be a result of a minima in lift between two forcing mechanisms...the stronger WAA upglide across W MO and the Fgen forcing along the river valley. That area also has a nose of warmer mid-level temps.
Weird setup for sure...
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 9:54:46 GMT -6
GFS is close to warning snow in the metro, if it would be a degree or 2 cooler we will really be in business. but a very good run in my opinion. Plus it is happening at night into the morning
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 9:54:47 GMT -6
Gfs is pretty wet, too bad too much of it is rain. Amazing how the higher snow totals come to a crashing halt right before the area.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 9:55:24 GMT -6
GFS is moist but of course we are dealing with temp issues now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 10:17:55 GMT -6
GEFS with a big QPF jump I think mixing might be a bigger concern than dry air  |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 13, 2022 10:18:18 GMT -6
Was curious how quickly temps drop as this moves in, looks to be in the 35-32° range for a good portion of the overnight hours until closer to daybreak. I envision a sloppy mess on the paved areas with this one.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 13, 2022 10:25:32 GMT -6
I knew we were going to be in trouble when Glenn put a graphic up last night that said, “All Snow”. It’s his fault.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 10:28:14 GMT -6
GEFS has the best probabilities for 3”+ across the northern and eastern counties Again, assuming 10:1 ratios  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 10:32:14 GMT -6
Looks like rain, then snow on wet ground. Probably be lucky to get an inch unless it's awfully heavy
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 10:35:14 GMT -6
Hope for some dynamic cooling the good thing is the bull should fall during the night and morning hours this should help accumulation
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 10:38:52 GMT -6
850s are fairly cold, I think we will see very large hamsters
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 10:41:54 GMT -6
If some models are right..it'll be rain at night..snow around daybreak. Not ideal. At the gem looks good
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 13, 2022 10:43:30 GMT -6
850s are fairly cold, I think we will see very large hamsters Wet hampsters splatter when they hit the ground and melt depending on air and ground temp and intensity as well. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 10:48:30 GMT -6
I still feel it is going to be a fun storm. If we are exactly 32 at night we are in business. I could see some tree issues as well, i had a wet snow take a huge limb off my pine a few years ago with only about 2 inches because of the weight
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 10:52:00 GMT -6
I doubt we get much rain.
But holy crap the GFS is warm for like 80% of the QPF it's 35F
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 10:54:48 GMT -6
Too far east...too far west...now we have like 6-1 ratio slop fest meh
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 10:54:53 GMT -6
I doubt we get much rain. But holy crap the GFS is warm for like 80% of the QPF it's 35F Ya I’m questioning all the rain some models are showing around here. I think dynamic cooling would be our friend. But I’ve also learned to never underestimate the warm air monster. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 10:54:56 GMT -6
850s are fairly cold, I think we will see very large hamsters Why? |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 10:55:50 GMT -6
I still like the 2-4” range for now takes into account low ratios could be higher or could be lower , nothing is ever cut and dry here in metro
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 10:55:51 GMT -6
Lets treat this as a march snowstorm. I remember the palm Sunday storm when it was 34 degrees the entire snowfall practically and we had significant accumulations
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 10:55:51 GMT -6
I'm not overly worried about mixing unless it trends much more amplified and less positively tilted. The trof is pushing hard and mid-level temps should cool fairly steadily as the deeper/stronger forcing moves in. And the E/NE low-level wind will advect in cooler, drier air which will help to cool near the surface with precip falling into it. The S/W counties could deal with it a bit more but I think the Metro and points N and E should avoid the mixing for the most part. It's definitely good that this is coming through mostly at night and/or low sun angle hours...in true STL clipper fashion. Insolation and warm surface temps would kill this thing otherwise.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 10:57:30 GMT -6
Winds are calm through the column supporting large flakes
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 11:02:49 GMT -6
Ukie came in quite a bit wetter as well
QPF is definitely trending upward as we get closer
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2022 11:08:44 GMT -6
Yesterday Cape was in the bullseye with 31 inches , today they are almost in the donut hole…… GFS is all over the place
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