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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 8:08:19 GMT -6
NAM is coming in east.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 8:13:56 GMT -6
NAM might be a kaboom. A no caps kaboom as of now but it's close.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 8:17:52 GMT -6
STL on east has snow at midnight..Mo is dry. Lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 8:18:44 GMT -6
Nam looks amazing for the metro meaning st.charles and st.louis counties. This is a good run for the metro
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 8:20:45 GMT -6
STL on east has snow at midnight..Mo is dry. Lol Definitely has more of a horseshoe look than before. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 8:23:55 GMT -6
Huge dry slot over much of mo. sounds about right
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 8:25:20 GMT -6
PWATS look awesome as low slides across ARK/LA border. If we could just get that to jog NE a bit from there.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2022 8:25:36 GMT -6
Yea that hole of nothingness over central MO isn't great to see.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 13, 2022 8:27:09 GMT -6
Yea that hole of nothingness over central MO isn't great to see. What would be causing that ? I know it's an obvious dry slot, but what features on the NAM would cause the resulting dryness ? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 8:27:24 GMT -6
Aaand the minima looks to be back..looks like very little west of stl
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 8:27:26 GMT -6
That is a solid 3 to 6 inch run for the metro on the nam. Yes central mo would not be happy
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 8:27:47 GMT -6
I don’t see the secondary, you have 1058 HP in the Rockies and 1045 HP over the Great Lakes, the storm is to weak and just gets shoved down
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 8:30:54 GMT -6
Also relax yall, hi res is 3 to 6 for eastern mo
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 8:31:25 GMT -6
Not much precipitation west of st Charles county . St. Louis Louis county looks decent
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2022 8:33:45 GMT -6
Looked so promising to start. Just gets squashed.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2022 8:34:03 GMT -6
Hires nam is good..nam is scary. Lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 8:47:08 GMT -6
I don’t see the secondary, you have 1058 HP in the Rockies and 1045 HP over the Great Lakes, the storm is to weak and just gets shoved down The block over this system has definitely trended stronger...not a lot of wiggle room left for a solid NE trend. But I still think a slight shift is possible. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2022 8:51:59 GMT -6
Man I just drive from wentzville to earth city raining the whole way temp 36-38 I didn’t realize it was supposed to rain that much. Most models barely showed anything
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 8:53:15 GMT -6
Good moderate showers off and on all morning in st.peters
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 8:55:28 GMT -6
The 06z euro and eps came in alittle juicer. EPS mean QPF is now 0.50”+ along and west of the river  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2022 9:00:10 GMT -6
Models are really honing in on a potential Fgen enhancement with the snowband along the river Friday evening...I think that's where the best potential for 3-6" amounts will set up. The NAM has a pretty stout dry slot across central MO, but that may be overdone considering the mid-level system hasn't really wrapped up by that point.
I like the idea of a general 2-4" with this given low ratios initially and potential for dry air to eat some precip up. But there's potential for some higher amounts if that Fgen band comes to fruition and it looks like it could set up fairly close to or over the Metro.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 13, 2022 9:00:21 GMT -6
Man I just drive from wentzville to earth city raining the whole way temp 36-38 I didn’t realize it was supposed to rain that much. Most models barely showed anything Suns out down here. No rain so far. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 13, 2022 9:12:10 GMT -6
I'm being snarky because it sounds like Starkey maybe I should just be a STARR. The 06Z GFS ensemble mean gives the entire metro 0.5"+ QPF. also PWATS on every model that has them are running 25-50% above normal for this time of year. Hardly "dry air" problems. Evaporational cooling saves us from singing half the QPF away in the rain. The words of my synoptic met professor ring strongly here..."never underestimate the NE wind" I don't like that sharp gradient IMBY...not one bit Agree. Gradients where the west edge of a county has 4", and the eastern half tails off to almost nothing. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 9:12:20 GMT -6
I'm being snarky because it sounds like Starkey maybe I should just be a STARR. The 06Z GFS ensemble mean gives the entire metro 0.5"+ QPF. also PWATS on every model that has them are running 25-50% above normal for this time of year. Hardly "dry air" problems. Evaporational cooling saves us from singing half the QPF away in the rain. The words of my synoptic met professor ring strongly here..."never underestimate the NE wind" I don't like that sharp gradient IMBY...not one bit Maybe or maybe not. The no stubborn Westward trend again and weaker system so far at 12Z is a bigger impediment. My post was because the person I was replying to triggered me because it didn't pass the BS test. Don't say stuff just to say stuff. The trends on the 12Z models are garbage for all of us. The nam appears ok but it's also weaker The rap and HRRR are way West. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2022 9:20:59 GMT -6
What exactly is the FV3 hi res?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2022 9:22:11 GMT -6
Not really seeing anything so far that leads me to have any reason to change the post at the top. It's a weird system for sure. I'd say 2-3 is still a solid forecast at the moment.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2022 9:29:03 GMT -6
The ratios look like garbage for the first few hours.
The QPF output is nice. But during most of the QPF it's going to be like 8-1.
I think anyone getting over 5" is going to be very very hard unless the QPF output end up aroud 0.65+.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 9:29:35 GMT -6
Metro is in a solid spot for sure. Lets see the 00z tonight trends thats when it will be sampled fully
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2022 9:29:51 GMT -6
ICON is pretty dang juicy with almost an inch of QPF in the metro
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2022 9:30:55 GMT -6
Definitely going to be extremely heavy to shovel
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