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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2021 17:51:30 GMT -6
There's definitely a lot of noise in this pattern with the fast flow and short wavelength. If we can get that cut off down near Baja to phase favorably with the digging wave near the 4 corners, that could turn into a pretty nice setup for us. But it seems like models want to break down the W coast ridge too quickly and shear things out before it can develop.
If that fails to produce anything, I'm starting to think we may need to keep an eye on severe potential towards next weekend. The SE ridge looks like it's going to flex with a lot of energy digging in. It kind of seems like mid-December is a bit notorious for severe weather across the Midwest some years.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 2, 2021 18:39:49 GMT -6
Venus Saturn Jupiter worth a look
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 2, 2021 22:35:38 GMT -6
Talk about a beautiful shortwave on the 00z GFS a week from this weekend! Getting ahead of myself, but if the midweek system doesn't play out that's our next storm of interest potentially. Lots of possibilities, severe wx? like Btrnwxman mentioned followed by some deformation snows?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2021 22:46:16 GMT -6
Talk about a beautiful shortwave on the 00z GFS a week from this weekend! Getting ahead of myself, but if the midweek system doesn't play out that's our next storm of interest potentially. Lots of possibilities, severe wx? like Btrnwxman mentioned followed by some deformation snows? That’s a ripe looking severe setup next weekend on the GFS. Of course it’s the GFS 7+ days out so it’s likely wrong |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2021 6:07:32 GMT -6
EURO seems to be tending towards a GFS-solution... regardless of if it lines up, a pattern change is imminent and welcome.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 3, 2021 8:38:23 GMT -6
EURO seems to be tending towards a GFS-solution... regardless of if it lines up, a pattern change is imminent and welcome. EPS has really changed its tune for next weekend. Went from showing a zonal flow to looking troughy  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 3, 2021 10:12:56 GMT -6
That's in sharp contrast to any other modeling for that period...the EC has been showing a very strong amplification bias lately. The large-scale pattern looks full on blowtorch next weekend into the following week.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2021 10:31:38 GMT -6
That's in sharp contrast to any other modeling for that period...the EC has been showing a very strong amplification bias lately. The large-scale pattern looks full on blowtorch next weekend into the following week. The last few runs of the gfs including the 12z run today show a potential winter storm by next weekend, so I would say there are conflicting indications |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 3, 2021 10:33:06 GMT -6
The midweek system on the 12z GFS looks a little better too.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 3, 2021 10:41:40 GMT -6
Next weekend has cutter written all over it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2021 10:43:55 GMT -6
Next weekend has cutter written all over it. Maybe, but look at how the midweek storm got torn apart. Might work in our favor for the next system |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2021 10:51:12 GMT -6
Temp at Lambert rose 9 degrees between 8 and 9, and another 9 from 9-10. From 45 to 63. Stupid
edit : now 68 at 11
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 3, 2021 11:36:39 GMT -6
Beautiful outside.
Unless it’s gonna snow I don’t want cold lol.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 3, 2021 11:38:10 GMT -6
Definately a run at the all time record today
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 3, 2021 12:32:59 GMT -6
Not surprising but there is a huge difference in GEFS members regarding temps across the middle of the country next weekend. The blowtorch is coming, its just a matter of how soon  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2021 12:53:33 GMT -6
well the 12 z euro would be infuriating for next weekend, lol. A blizzard 50-75 miles from here.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2021 13:34:12 GMT -6
MJO kicking east... this seems to be supporting the pattern change.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2021 13:38:41 GMT -6
Not surprising but there is a huge difference in GEFS members regarding temps across the middle of the country next weekend. The blowtorch is coming, its just a matter of how soon I’ll stick with the 12z euro where it’s 4 degrees and I have a foot of snow after next weekend. Might even want a blow torch after that 😂 |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2021 13:42:11 GMT -6
well the 12 z euro would be infuriating for next weekend, lol. A blizzard 50-75 miles from here. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 3, 2021 13:56:37 GMT -6
My truck says 77,lambert is 75 at 2 p.m almost there
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 3, 2021 13:57:40 GMT -6
well the 12 z euro would be infuriating for next weekend, lol. A blizzard 50-75 miles from here. Lol |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 3, 2021 14:06:43 GMT -6
well the 12 z euro would be infuriating for next weekend, lol. A blizzard 50-75 miles from here. A true St. Louis special would be if you had a 4-8" band from Jeffco points south on there as well. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 3, 2021 14:10:09 GMT -6
I wouldn't be surprised to see a big time pattern shift later this month after this stretch. Somethings gotta give...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 3, 2021 14:15:31 GMT -6
The record high today is 76° set in 1970
As ajd stated Lambert was at 75° at 2pm
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 3, 2021 14:43:15 GMT -6
What makes today so amazing is that usually when we get warm temperatures in December it comes with a 20 mile an hour south wind… Today there is next to no wind and it’s absolutely beautiful outside…..Played golf and went for a convertible ride pretty amazing day!!
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Dec 3, 2021 17:02:52 GMT -6
What makes today so amazing is that usually when we get warm temperatures in December it comes with a 20 mile an hour south wind… Today there is next to no wind and it’s absolutely beautiful outside…..Played golf and went for a convertible ride pretty amazing day!! I said the exact same thing to my wife today! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 3, 2021 17:12:40 GMT -6
Really Snowman? You post a tweet from the competition?  ? Where is the loyalty lol! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 3, 2021 17:56:19 GMT -6
What makes today so amazing is that usually when we get warm temperatures in December it comes with a 20 mile an hour south wind… Today there is next to no wind and it’s absolutely beautiful outside…..Played golf and went for a convertible ride pretty amazing day!! Agreed...it is unusual to get warmth like this during the cool months without a strong S/SW wind and deep mixing. Definitely a couple of stellar days. I took advantage of it and got a lot of wood split up. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2021 17:58:41 GMT -6
Really Snowman? You post a tweet from the competition? ? Where is the loyalty lol! Well. Crap. I wasn't even thinking that. I was just thinking of the info. I'm sorry. Please forgive me.1 |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 3, 2021 18:01:59 GMT -6
Really Snowman? You post a tweet from the competition? ? Where is the loyalty lol! Time to pull out the ban hammer |
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