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Post by TK on Jan 12, 2022 22:11:51 GMT -6
Hi Guys..I am no expert but how does the clipper decrease moisture in N MO coming South and then increase over STL with the recent models? It appears the Gulf moisture does not pick up with Low until lower South. Can someone explain that?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 22:14:03 GMT -6
The NAM actually like energy transfers while coming South. This is probably unlikely.
The end result is the entire system essentially rebooting to our NW and the lift gathers further East which helps us a lot.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 22:22:54 GMT -6
There is serious potential that this storm to track further East and slow down as it dives South.
I wouldn't be surprised if we get 0.60-1.0" QPF with 5-8" of snow.
Hopefully the model runs digging the vort max SSW through Western Kansas are over
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2022 22:24:22 GMT -6
The northern stream (mini shortwave) and southern stream (shortwave) for our storm look to be both on land by around 6am tomorrow! You can see them by the vertical lines I drew. The main part of northern stream (mini shortwave) is actually just east of the vertical line I drew and harder to see than the southern stream (shortwave).  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 22:37:08 GMT -6
There is serious potential that this storm to track further East and slow down as it dives South. I wouldn't be surprised if we get 0.60-1.0" QPF with 5-8" of snow. Hopefully the model runs digging the vort max SSW through Western Kansas are over WSC mentioned it, but the HRRR and RAP are much further east than other guidance. Ya there outside their reliability windows but mildly interesting. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 22:49:21 GMT -6
There is serious potential that this storm to track further East and slow down as it dives South. I wouldn't be surprised if we get 0.60-1.0" QPF with 5-8" of snow. Hopefully the model runs digging the vort max SSW through Western Kansas are over WSC mentioned it, but the HRRR and RAP are much further east than other guidance. Ya there outside their reliability windows but mildly interesting. The 03zrap is so far East that its a bust for the MO side. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 22:55:55 GMT -6
The ukmet is a bust.
Ggem is ok. We are on the far Eastern edge.
It digs hard through Kansas.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 23:01:28 GMT -6
Overall, Most 0z models look like there still around 2-4” for the metro area a little less East and little more west of st Charles county . Good trends overall, hopefully they hold or get better in the next 48 hours .
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 12, 2022 23:02:50 GMT -6
It’s pretty amazing that we are 48 hrs out and models are all over the place
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 23:07:01 GMT -6
The further East solutions are because there is no phasing or very little. The further west is because there's a lot of phasing. We need a compromise. Snowman99 is right. Look at that ridiculous bleep the NAM has going.... The name like phases super quick and like FUUIWARAS THE PHASING ENERGY. AND THE FURTHER EAST AREA TAKES OVER AND WE GET A GOOD STORM. WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT HAPPENS???  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 12, 2022 23:14:08 GMT -6
Going public with 2-3 inches as my first public forecast.
For now... not showing a "traditional" snowfall map. I'm going to use the probability to meet or exceed 2" then show the probs for 4"+
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 23:17:15 GMT -6
Icon is that compromise. Beauty..? Great partial phase. Great track.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 23:25:14 GMT -6
Looks like they are flying daily recon missions to sample the energy in the eastern pacific. Cool stuff
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