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Post by Tilawn on Jan 15, 2020 12:26:15 GMT -6
euro looks icy..but mostly in the afternoon..not morning, with maybe a quarter to a third inch of ZR, no snow or sleet. the temp rises from 31 to 40 from 6pm to midnight lol. Light, moderate, or heavy in the rate it is coming down? |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 15, 2020 12:32:06 GMT -6
I’m teaching tomorrow as though it were Friday. My principal is doing the same with the class she teaches. If the stuff does wait till later in the morning, schools and districts have to decide if it’s worth even starting. Remember a couple years ago when busses were stuck overnight on the roads? Nobody wants a repeat of that.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 15, 2020 12:34:21 GMT -6
I really wish some weather nut with time to spare would figure out how to run the ETA, AVN, and NOGAPS today so we can do a storm-by-storm comparison with newer models. Then test (dispel) the theory (myth) that models have gotten worse over time. Or, if not, then we can start using them instead of our new crappy models...I am pragmatic about this afterall.
Heck while we're at it, why not just go back to the LFM?
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Post by dschreib on Jan 15, 2020 12:37:19 GMT -6
I really wish some weather nut with time to spare would figure out how to run the ETA, AVN, and NOGAPS today so we can do a storm-by-storm comparison with newer models. Then test (dispel) the theory (myth) that models have gotten worse over time. Or, if not, then we can start using them instead of our new crappy models...I am pragmatic about this afterall. Heck while we're at it, why not just go back to the LFM? We haven't heard anything out of the Japanese model lately, either.
And maybe we need a LMFAO model (or maybe that was the JMG, or whatever that thing was).
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2020 12:38:09 GMT -6
euro looks icy..but mostly in the afternoon..not morning, with maybe a quarter to a third inch of ZR, no snow or sleet. the temp rises from 31 to 40 from 6pm to midnight lol. Light, moderate, or heavy in the rate it is coming down? Looks kinda light to moderate. Which would help it stick better, Temps in mid 20's at 6am. Around 30 at noon and 31 at 6pm. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 15, 2020 12:40:37 GMT -6
Light, moderate, or heavy in the rate it is coming down? Looks kinda light to moderate. Which would help it stick better, Temps in mid 20's at 6am. Around 30 at noon and 31 at 6pm. Well with lighter precipitation rates it won’t wash all my chemicals off but with heavier rates the water will run off better. Still plan to pretreat everything Thursday night I guess |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 15, 2020 12:51:15 GMT -6
Looks like a legit ice event in central MO. Should be a fun day of reporting Friday...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 12:55:09 GMT -6
Euro p-type breakdown Still holds the worst icing for the NW counties but it’s been trending icier  |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 15, 2020 12:55:14 GMT -6
Looks like a major ice stom from columbia to st.louis if you ask me
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 15, 2020 12:59:57 GMT -6
It figures, since we have a important mtg with
Our local state rep on Fri at 8:30a! Any other day, ice! Argh!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 13:00:11 GMT -6
Looks like a major ice stom from columbia to st.louis if you ask me NAM would certainly argue for that. Globals still keep the worst icing NW of the metro but it’s not like the NAM to be the weakest solution. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 15, 2020 13:06:17 GMT -6
GFS and Euro say we do this again next Thursday possibly
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 15, 2020 13:08:22 GMT -6
GFS and Euro say we do this again next Thursday possibly similar over-running only this time the cold air is LOCKED into place from Saturday until then... |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2020 13:30:39 GMT -6
Good to see at least a little sunshine here before we get another 4 or 5 days of gloom. Temp is up to 56 at Lambert
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 15, 2020 13:36:09 GMT -6
Wind shift has arrived to KCOU... T/Td holding steady.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 15, 2020 13:49:52 GMT -6
Wind shift has arrived to KCOU... T/Td holding steady. strong kick of northerly winds. Heavy mist. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 14:16:36 GMT -6
18z NAM is going to be icy
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2020 14:21:37 GMT -6
The NAM is getting into its wheel house, I like it’s trends . I would still like to see a 3-6 hour earlier start to the precipitation
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 15, 2020 14:27:22 GMT -6
Nam is icy and way south bout third to half in ice in metro up to 1 inch southern counties
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 15, 2020 14:27:33 GMT -6
The NAM is getting into its wheel house, I like it’s trends . I would still like to see a 3-6 hour earlier start to the precipitation Agree... School's are going to have a tough decision to make. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 15, 2020 14:28:50 GMT -6
Easy school decision just close
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 15, 2020 14:31:55 GMT -6
Easy school decision just close Doesn't always work that way. Should.. But doesn't |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 14:36:29 GMT -6
Euro is about 15 degrees warmer Saturday before the front comes through compared to the NAM
I think the euro is amping this system up to much like it did with the last one
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 15, 2020 14:56:49 GMT -6
Winter storm watches starting to go up.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2020 15:06:51 GMT -6
Interesting that the watch only goes as far east as few counties northwest of STL. NWS explains that, but, I wonder if a watch will be hoisted with the overnight package, or, will they just shift to a WWA?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2020 15:09:00 GMT -6
Easy school decision just close Doesn't always work that way. Should.. But doesn't Given the timing, some schools may elect to do a late start (Lindbergh just started offering that this year, which seems odd given that my catholic elementary and high schools did "snow schedule" for late start as far back as 1980.) But if it gets a late start (precip) and doesn't stop until later, a full day off may just be in the cards...we'll see! NAM is pretty to look at (colors for accumulations) but not pretty for what it's going to do! |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 15, 2020 15:41:09 GMT -6
So, I see there is some variance in the timing of the storm based on the models. What time frame are we looking at? I am more concerned that we will get to work/school and then have to commute home in this mess. Late starts almost never happen in schools anymore unless they are private schools. It's almost a distinct yes or no. Timing is everything with this system it seems.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2020 15:48:06 GMT -6
GFS still NW. Nam is worst case scenario at the moment and it doesn't have a ton of support.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2020 15:54:54 GMT -6
GFS trended a little better for sure but still North west from the NAM
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2020 16:02:15 GMT -6
and pushes back the event...
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