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Post by maddogchief on Jan 14, 2020 21:22:16 GMT -6
The icon is a tinge cooler and a little jog further south with the precip shield as well. I'm mainly interested in this one because of commute time. Also, my 7.5 months pregnant wife could use a day off from Kindergarten. She’s a bit old to be going to kindergarten isn’t she? I mean I’m assuming, but ya never know these days. |
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 14, 2020 21:36:48 GMT -6
Did anyone go outside this evening and watch Elon’s train of satellites? Supposedly it was the second launch. It was pretty cool, just watching satellite after satellite fly by. Apparently his Starlink system will have 42k satellites and will provide global internet. Technology is awesome, however, soon the sky will be filled with transitioning items that the stars will be something noone bothers to go look at. Elon will be one of the great minds in history Love my Tesla Model 3. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2020 21:41:04 GMT -6
The icon is a tinge cooler and a little jog further south with the precip shield as well. I'm mainly interested in this one because of commute time. Also, my 7.5 months pregnant wife could use a day off from Kindergarten. She’s a bit old to be going to kindergarten isn’t she? I mean I’m assuming, but ya never know these days. Haha now that I read my original post that did come off a little funny. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 14, 2020 21:45:15 GMT -6
NAM appears to saturate within an hour at onset with 950 to 700mb levels 2°C to 7°C with a 29°F surface temp. That’s a recipe for a decent amount of sleet and ice.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2020 21:46:22 GMT -6
Did I say the low came south? The precipitation shield that was basically north and west of us came much further south. Whoa. Easy there. You guys need to hug this one out. I think your post is vague. The low is north, but the atmosphere saturates. Good luck with that. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 14, 2020 21:55:08 GMT -6
GFS gunna be a big hit. Appears to have a harder time at saturation compared to the latest NAM though.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 14, 2020 21:56:56 GMT -6
This could be a moderate storm with high impacts to roads
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2020 21:58:37 GMT -6
Strong WAA , it will saturate just fine, this is type of storm, it doesn’t matter if the low is north or south for us. We are well aware we only have an 8-12 hour window of frozen precipitation (if we’re lucky) then we will kick over to a cold rain.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2020 22:01:07 GMT -6
All the models will have there problems with this storm. Some runs will look good and some won’t. A lot will depend on HP strength and saturation.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 14, 2020 22:08:08 GMT -6
Still think there is a chance the high pushes the low more south.... maybe that’s my heart talking lol
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2020 22:22:38 GMT -6
Never underestimate the power of the DAM.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 14, 2020 22:26:09 GMT -6
Whoa. Easy there. You guys need to hug this one out. I think your post is vague. The low is north, but the atmosphere saturates. Good luck with that. We need to get WSC a good snow. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 14, 2020 22:49:58 GMT -6
Never underestimate the power of the DAM. Appears to me that the GFS is recognizing the DAM is alive and well which is why it has cut into totals a bit. This is still looking like a pretty nasty hit of ZR and sleet though IMO. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2020 22:50:35 GMT -6
Still think there is a chance the high pushes the low more south.... maybe that’s my heart talking lol At least in this case you wont be getting bent over while the rest of us get lots of snow. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2020 23:39:50 GMT -6
Location of the surface low isn't too important with this setup being primarily WAA driven. This mainly comes down to the precep getting here as fast as possible before the cold air gets scrubbed out
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 0:16:09 GMT -6
Euro icy for the NW half of the area. Its been trending icier slowly
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 15, 2020 5:02:43 GMT -6
.LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 The next upstream wave will move from the West Coast over the Rockies on Thursday night. Lee side cyclogenesis begins Thursday night as the wave approaches, and low level flow turns back to the south. Models remain in good agreement that warm advection precip will overspread the area from the southwest between 09Z-15Z. Forecast soundings continue to show a low level dry layer associated with the retreating high that will eat into the precipitation early on and initial precip type will likely be snow due to evaporative cooling. Latest guidance is a little warmer aloft, so a little more wintry mix is possible. I`m a little concerned that 2m temperatures on the GFS and ECMWF do not warm above freezing for much of the area until mid to late afternoon and temperatures aloft warm to a point where freezing rain looks possible. However, ensemble temperature guidance pushes surface temps above freezing almost immediately after warmer temperatures aloft begin changing the precip from snow to sleet and freeing rain. I decided to continue with the warmer surface temperatures since release of latent heat from the freezing rain should warm surface temps slightly, and southeast surface flow will tend to help with that warming process. Once the precip turns to rain it should stay that way through the end of the event on Saturday. Total liquid QPF through Saturday is down somewhat from yesterday`s runs...now between 1 and 1.25 inches with storm total snow ranging from less than an inch in southeast Missouri up to around 4 inches northeast Missouri. Storm total icing looks like just a light glaze at this time, provided surface temperatures warm up as expected. A period of dry and cold weather is expected after the cold front moves through on Saturday. Another strong Canadian high moves from the northern Plains into the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Tuesday. This will bring the area below normal temperatures with highs mainly in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to low teens. Carney  If someone else can post an ice accumulation map from NWS (if there is one) that would be great. I have to figure out why that won’t update on my “Emergency Manager Briefing Page” it’s stuck on an update from middle of 2019. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2020 7:00:55 GMT -6
The 06z nam soundings indicate about a 75-90 minute burst of heavy snow along the river at the onset of the precipitation.
Probably about 1-1.5" before changing to freezing rain.
It's pretty stout with the deep layered lift.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2020 7:07:59 GMT -6
The latest models are slightly better warmer aloft Friday really limiting snow chances to onset and almost no sleet.
However they have surface winds now essentially ESEE instead of SE.
The name and gfs both keep the Northern 2/3rd of the metro between 29-30F until 4-5pm Friday before torching us out.
The ice threat looks vigorous to me especially along and North of 64/70.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2020 7:20:56 GMT -6
The name verbatim has a major ice storm for most of region.
All the way to Chicago.
Even has essentially no snow in Chicago.
The gfs has a moderate ice storm.
The name even wet bulbs us down to around 27F at the onset Friday morning.
Recovering to:
Noon: 29F
3pm: 30F
6pm: 32F
9pm: 36F
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 15, 2020 7:39:38 GMT -6
The latest models are slightly better warmer aloft Friday really limiting snow chances to onset and almost no sleet. However they have surface winds now essentially ESEE instead of SE. The name and gfs both keep the Northern 2/3rd of the metro between 29-30F until 4-5pm Friday before torching us out. The ice threat looks vigorous to me especially along and North of 64/70. What's it showing for the southern section? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2020 8:08:18 GMT -6
The latest models are slightly better warmer aloft Friday really limiting snow chances to onset and almost no sleet. However they have surface winds now essentially ESEE instead of SE. The name and gfs both keep the Northern 2/3rd of the metro between 29-30F until 4-5pm Friday before torching us out. The ice threat looks vigorous to me especially along and North of 64/70. What's it showing for the southern section? As of right now you'd be talking about perhaps a brief hit of sleet/zr before a lull in precip then plain rain. Models have shifted north with the batch of precip for the time being. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2020 8:28:06 GMT -6
Well I say that and now the NAM shifts the core area of precip back south a good bit.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 15, 2020 8:30:15 GMT -6
Looks very bad in metro area on the nam. Icy
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 15, 2020 8:33:14 GMT -6
Half of the nam would be bad in metro
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 15, 2020 8:40:35 GMT -6
Yep.. taking NAM at face value everyone should be required to stay home Friday.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2020 8:42:48 GMT -6
It holds temps below freezing longer than it has been as well. Keeps that stubborn pocket of 29-31 F until late afternoon/evening Friday.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 15, 2020 8:43:53 GMT -6
Looking long range on GFS... NW flow with a few clippers moving through as we close out January
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2020 9:20:24 GMT -6
Models are definitely trending flatter and weaker with the WAA leading to further south precep and the cold hanging tough longer. The 06z euro and its ensembles were noticeably weaker with the system
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2020 9:27:28 GMT -6
Models are definitely trending flatter and weaker with the WAA leading to further south precep and the cold hanging tough longer. The 06z euro and its ensembles were noticeably weaker with the system It's safe to call that a trend for the winter at this point. We haven't seen the big phased systems with the large sweeping deformation zone either. This last system was supposed to be that but it just never happened. |
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