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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2020 12:40:45 GMT -6
Maybe 2 drops of ZR or 2 sleet pellets. You mean, hardly anything? that's what I said. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 13, 2020 12:53:21 GMT -6
And I'll sideline this one... maybe this is all better done in PM's... I think we're all ready for a new thread.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2020 13:03:56 GMT -6
On a serious note, a member of this board could use some positive thoughts and prayers. I'll let him say who he is if he wants. Been through a very tough time and a death in the family.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2020 13:04:06 GMT -6
I am surprised NWS already put out rain graphic for this weekend.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 13, 2020 13:40:28 GMT -6
The airport recorded 4.33" of precipitation and 2.5" of snow on that last storm.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 13, 2020 13:41:56 GMT -6
Maybe 2 drops of ZR or 2 sleet pellets. Pretty much what the euro shows. Oh..for the figuratively speaking challenged, that means it shows hardly any ice at all..some..but very little So wait, like more than two or less? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2020 13:42:39 GMT -6
I do believe the horse is dead and requires no further beating.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 13:52:38 GMT -6
I am surprised NWS already put out rain graphic for this weekend. Why? Rain is almost guaranteed for the metro and is likely to be the dominant precipitation type |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 13, 2020 13:56:39 GMT -6
On the 11 AM newscast Chris did say that strong polar outbreak is still coming. It's just been delayed until the beginning of next week
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 13, 2020 14:39:21 GMT -6
Ok... I saw an article today about all the recent volcanic eruptions and the amount of ash being spewed into the air recently. If it really is as much as they are suggesting, I know it's too late to affect the rest of this winter, but would it be enough to affect summer and next winter?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 14:40:02 GMT -6
12z euro control is weaker and south of the operational run. Some good ensembles in there even for the metro as far as snow/sleet accumulation goes.
I would say the 12z suite has been rather pleasant. Hopefully, the trends continue
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 15:32:01 GMT -6
18z icon is way south lol. Mostly snow for STL, but the dry air eats the moisture. It’s a fine line
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 13, 2020 16:02:49 GMT -6
18z icon is way south lol. Mostly snow for STL, but the dry air eats the moisture. It’s a fine line I don't follow the icon too much, but as seen on tropical tidbits does it even identify freezing rain or sleet? I can't see any temp aloft charts but thickness values on those surface charts suggest the snow area isn't all snow. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 13, 2020 16:04:22 GMT -6
18z icon is way south lol. Mostly snow for STL, but the dry air eats the moisture. It’s a fine line Model guidance is comical at best. GFS for a few days was the only model showing a storm late week. Now that they all show it, their solutions are akin to a politician’s interpretation of the constitution. With that, their performance is similar to the Chicago Cubs. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 13, 2020 16:06:30 GMT -6
An interesting development would be what happens with the sfc feature Friday night into Saturday. Another headache forecast, it seems.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 16:07:17 GMT -6
18z icon is way south lol. Mostly snow for STL, but the dry air eats the moisture. It’s a fine line I don't follow the icon too much, but as seen on tropical tidbits does it even identify freezing rain or sleet? I can't see any temp aloft charts but thickness values on those surface charts suggest the snow area isn't all snow. I don’t think it does. It was more a commentary on the low position and lower level temps. 18z gfs has snow initially and then tracks the low into Iowa. Models are now struggling |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 16:07:58 GMT -6
18z GFS is a pretty big hit of ice for the metro from 6am-6pm Friday. I just noticed my NWS forecast for later this week, they have a rain snow mix on Thursday night low of 35 and all rain with a high of 57 on Friday. Clearly that’s a typo... There’s not a single model or ensemble that has the metro getting above 33-35 all day on Friday
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 16:22:28 GMT -6
18z GFS is a pretty big hit of ice for the metro from 6am-6pm Friday. I just noticed my NWS forecast for later this week, they have a rain snow mix on Thursday night low of 35 and all rain with a high of 57 on Friday. Clearly that’s a typo... There’s not a single model or ensemble that has the metro getting above 33-35 all day on Friday Highs late Friday night could climb into the 50s briefly before the next cold front moves through, but certainly most of the day is now modeled near freezing |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2020 16:54:36 GMT -6
NWS this morning had highs here for Fri in the upper 50's, now it's mid 40's.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 13, 2020 17:29:22 GMT -6
The NWS is notorious for being conservative in forecasting temps and or precipitation amounts in the medium to long range. They want to see a clear consensus first.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2020 17:31:11 GMT -6
I am surprised NWS already put out rain graphic for this weekend. Why? Rain is almost guaranteed for the metro and is likely to be the dominant precipitation type Because I expected it to include this... /?d=n |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 13, 2020 17:31:48 GMT -6
That storm in jackson that dschreib originally posted from kfvs, and that my childhood neighbor posted on fb and i shared here...it was rated an ef2 tornado. I do not know if it was tornado warned or if the radar beam overshot it. Nobody was hurt even as the damage path crossed over i55.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2020 17:42:24 GMT -6
That storm in jackson that dschreib originally posted from kfvs, and that my childhood neighbor posted on fb and i shared here...it was rated an ef2 tornado. I do not know if it was tornado warned or if the radar beam overshot it. Nobody was hurt even as the damage path crossed over i55. Just saw that too. I do not believe it was warned. I will say the couplet was plenty strong enough to be warned on the velocity scan so I’m not sure what happened there. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 17:45:21 GMT -6
Why? Rain is almost guaranteed for the metro and is likely to be the dominant precipitation type Because I expected it to include this... /?d=n I was one of the first to point out the potential for wintry precipitation. It doesn’t change the fact it’s extremely likely to rain, and rain a decent amount. Maybe something was lost in translation. My bad |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 18:11:28 GMT -6
Of course it’s going to rain , but the potential 8-12 hours of frozen precipitation is a big deal in St. Louis, much bigger than the chance of another 1-2” of rain
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 18:12:39 GMT -6
The 18z GEFS continues the trend of about 12 hours of frozen precipitation before it changes over to a cold rain Friday evening
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2020 18:42:00 GMT -6
Any hit of sleet or even snow on the front end will make this a big deal. Without that I see it as a nuisance zr event.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 18:47:25 GMT -6
Any hit of sleet or even snow on the front end will make this a big deal. Without that I see it as a nuisance zr event. I don’t know, some of the soundings I’ve seen show several hours of freezing rain with temps in the 28-30 range. The droplets look like they would be supercooled to. That could do some damage even if temps go above freezing |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 13, 2020 19:15:44 GMT -6
On a serious note, a member of this board could use some positive thoughts and prayers. I'll let him say who he is if he wants. Been through a very tough time and a death in the family. . PM me if you can share more info. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 19:20:35 GMT -6
Any hit of sleet or even snow on the front end will make this a big deal. Without that I see it as a nuisance zr event. I don’t know, some of the soundings I’ve seen show several hours of freezing rain with temps in the 28-30 range. The droplets look like they would be supercooled to. That could do some damage even if temps go above freezing There was an event around January 13, 2007 where it started as zr and did a decent amount of damage before turning to rain. It can certainly happen, but this situation still is very muddled. Huge error bars in outcome |
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