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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 19:24:14 GMT -6
Oh for sure. This could easily just be a cold rain. The trend has been towards a colder airmass out front of the system and a weaker overall system allowing the cold to hang around longer. WAA driven systems are always fun to forecast
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 19:30:00 GMT -6
Anybody see what the 18z Euro showed?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2020 19:32:42 GMT -6
It only goes out 90 hours. But the temps might be a degree or 2 colder, in the mid 20's. Frozen stuff breaking out in far sw MO at 6am Fri
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 13, 2020 19:39:34 GMT -6
Could the models just now be catching up with cool air from the snow pack causing the cool air be more intrusive than expected? I’m also wondering if that’s what Chris was alluding too last week as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 19:44:25 GMT -6
It only goes out 90 hours. But the temps might be a degree or 2 colder, in the mid 20's. Frozen stuff breaking out in far sw MO at 6am Fri 06z/18z runs do have ensembles that go out 144 hours |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 19:45:04 GMT -6
No, there will be no snow pack around here by late week. It all depends on the strength of the HP to our north east and the strength and track of the surface low pressure. We want a weaker low digging further south and ejecting south of us along with a strong HP over the Great Lakes. It always takes a lot of things coming together to give us a winter storm, this is no exception. Lots of time to figure it out.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 19:45:38 GMT -6
Snow what do they show ?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 19:49:23 GMT -6
Looks like a potential reflective PV event will help give us a couple week period of cold, but Dr. Cohen is putting some scary words like “mild” out there already for February.
We better cash in quick
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 19:52:02 GMT -6
Basically the same as the 12z so alittle stronger than the GEFS |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 13, 2020 20:10:13 GMT -6
The thing with freezing rain is that once the temperature gets above freezing, it doesn’t mean it instantly melts. It’ll take several hours still to melt it, depending on how much freezing rain falls, how fast it warms up, and if it’s still raining. School districts are going to have a tough call whether to start or not on Friday if the forecast holds true and perhaps it doesn’t roll in till mid morning. I used to have to make that call. Glad it’s not mine anymore.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2020 20:10:59 GMT -6
Looks like a potential reflective PV event will help give us a couple week period of cold, but Dr. Cohen is putting some scary words like “mild” out there already for February. We better cash in quick When our coldest day this year was in November I would say the whole winter has been mild..... down this way we are sitting with a little over 3 inches of snow for the year and 10 miles south they have had about an inch.... winter can start anytime now lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 20:16:50 GMT -6
Looks like a potential reflective PV event will help give us a couple week period of cold, but Dr. Cohen is putting some scary words like “mild” out there already for February. We better cash in quick When our coldest day this year was in November I would say the whole winter has been mild..... down this way we are sitting with a little over 3 inches of snow for the year and 10 miles south they have had about an inch.... winter can start anytime now lol I hear you. My biggest snow was on Halloween... |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2020 20:24:56 GMT -6
When our coldest day this year was in November I would say the whole winter has been mild..... down this way we are sitting with a little over 3 inches of snow for the year and 10 miles south they have had about an inch.... winter can start anytime now lol I hear you. My biggest snow was on Halloween... For you being in Chicago that’s just crazy.... I sure hope we both get a nice snow soon!! |
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 13, 2020 20:44:38 GMT -6
OK, Super-cooled Rain v Freezing Rain
Let me make sure I have this straight. When super-cooled raindrops hit the ground (or something else) they freeze on contact since they are already below freezing. Freezing rain falls at a temp above freezing into an environment below freezing and freezes on contact.
Either way you get a glaze of ice, right? What am I missing? Is one worse than the other? Seems like super-cooled rain would be harder to forecast.
Thanks in advance for the weather 101.
Grizz
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 20:50:51 GMT -6
OK, Super-cooled Rain v Freezing Rain Let me make sure I have this straight. When super-cooled raindrops hit the ground (or something else) they freeze on contact since they are already below freezing. Freezing rain falls at a temp above freezing into an environment below freezing and freezes on contact. Either way you get a glaze of ice, right? What am I missing? Is one worse than the other? Seems like super-cooled rain would be harder to forecast. Thanks in advance for the weather 101. Grizz Super-cooled drops accrete at a more efficient rate. Warm drops have time to runoff, and they warm the atmosphere. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 13, 2020 20:53:35 GMT -6
OK, Super-cooled Rain v Freezing Rain Let me make sure I have this straight. When super-cooled raindrops hit the ground (or something else) they freeze on contact since they are already below freezing. Freezing rain falls at a temp above freezing into an environment below freezing and freezes on contact. Either way you get a glaze of ice, right? What am I missing? Is one worse than the other? Seems like super-cooled rain would be harder to forecast. Thanks in advance for the weather 101. Grizz If you've ever "instantly" froze a water bottle it's the same principal. The water molecules are nearly "frozen" and all it takes is a catalyst like a "shake" to freeze the whole bottle in seconds. Super-cooled droplets in freezing rain work the same way. It's just a bit more efficient of an ice accretion vs warmer droplets. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 13, 2020 20:54:27 GMT -6
OK, Super-cooled Rain v Freezing Rain Let me make sure I have this straight. When super-cooled raindrops hit the ground (or something else) they freeze on contact since they are already below freezing. Freezing rain falls at a temp above freezing into an environment below freezing and freezes on contact. Either way you get a glaze of ice, right? What am I missing? Is one worse than the other? Seems like super-cooled rain would be harder to forecast. Thanks in advance for the weather 101. Grizz Freezing rain is precipitation which falls as rain in the air, but once it hits the surface it freezes. (Everyone I think knows this). If the warm wedge in the upper atmosphere say from 700mb down to 850mb is smaller (only 1-2* above 0* C -supercooled droplets) and there's a deep shallow cold layer at the surface (2-3* colder than 0*C) then that allows for good ice accretion. Worldseries, unclesam beat me haha. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 22:05:31 GMT -6
GFS drops more snow this run. Still brings the warm before slamming the front through. Odd system
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 22:07:11 GMT -6
We could go from snow to sleet to Freezing rain to rain all in 12 hours
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 13, 2020 22:24:23 GMT -6
Let’s hope today’s trends continue .....
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Post by jeepers on Jan 13, 2020 22:38:21 GMT -6
Epic game for Blues tonight. Was at game and even we didn’t understand why Getzlaf was yapping at the ref. Boys looked great and I’ve decided that Blues fans will happily sing anything. Bring on the frozen stuff.n
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 13, 2020 22:56:45 GMT -6
Gfs has ice storm over Branson now. Crazy shift from Iowa to Arkansas border in 24 hrs
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 22:57:30 GMT -6
Hard not to say the gfs and gefs reverted north tonight.
Lots more spread in the ensemble members this run. Annoying
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 23:11:10 GMT -6
And then you have the 00z ukmet south and trying to bomb the low out on Saturday.
This is stupid
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2020 23:19:49 GMT -6
It's Monday.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 14, 2020 4:16:48 GMT -6
It's Tuesday.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 14, 2020 4:18:47 GMT -6
I think we will get more sunshine today...and I have gone with the milder temperatures in the 50s.
I'm sticking with the "Icy mix changing to rain" wording for Friday morning. I think the AM rush could be messy...but in time temps will warm enough to change everything over to rain.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2020 6:22:45 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2020 7:59:02 GMT -6
Epic game for Blues tonight. Was at game and even we didn’t understand why Getzlaf was yapping at the ref. Boys looked great and I’ve decided that Blues fans will happily sing anything. Bring on the frozen stuff.n
Agreed. I was a little disappointed with the first period. I thought we pretty much dictated play, and to come out 1-1 when Bortuzzo really had the Ducks' best scoring chance for 3/4 of the period left me a little uneasy. I thought it just might be "one of those nights". 2nd and 3rd periods were dominant. We're a fun team to watch, even with Tarasenko and Blais (and Parayko) on the sidelines. That's scary. Top it off with Marchand whiffing on a shootout attempt, and it was a great night. I wonder if he cried...
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 14, 2020 8:01:09 GMT -6
New thread time?
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