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Post by maddogchief on Jan 13, 2020 8:51:21 GMT -6
Reading some post saying bring on the ice... may sand fleas attack your crotch and your arms to short to scratch! Ice out here in rural USA is a BIG deal! As modeled currently, the icing would be light and short lived. Winds also aren’t supposed to be crazy either. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 9:13:29 GMT -6
Ensembles are now forecasting a weak surface low to move right over the area Friday night. That’s a huge change from 24 hours ago
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2020 9:14:28 GMT -6
Im thinking a ice storm may happen and that is scary.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2020 9:19:16 GMT -6
This is not your standard "ice storm." It could be a solid hit of sleet then zr for a while if the temps come in cooler, but it will not be that prolonged overrunning situation.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2020 9:21:07 GMT -6
Honestly looks like nam is coming in quite cold
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 9:27:02 GMT -6
12z icon coming in way south
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 13, 2020 9:32:44 GMT -6
This is not your standard "ice storm." It could be a solid hit of sleet then zr for a while if the temps come in cooler, but it will not be that prolonged overrunning situation. Think January 13, 2017 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 9:38:53 GMT -6
12z icon coming in way south That’s a big hit of ice before temps warm above freezing |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 10:01:26 GMT -6
12z gfs coming in icy. Time of day will be important too
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2020 10:14:02 GMT -6
This is not your standard "ice storm." It could be a solid hit of sleet then zr for a while if the temps come in cooler, but it will not be that prolonged overrunning situation. Think January 13, 2017 I was trying to remember a very similar setup we had a couple years back and I think you've named the exact one. Too bad we can't get the low to dig. I remember asking the same question back during that one too - what the heck is keeping that nearby arctic air from filtering in? SE ridge? |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 10:28:07 GMT -6
It’s actually a good set up for ice we have a pretty strong HP to the North East, most models have a 1045 HP over the lakes, this type banana high set up usually gives you a north east wind that feeds dry air into the advancing precipitation . Typical if it’s strong enough the frozen precipitation will hang on longer then modeled. But the current set up would yield a period of sleet (maybe a little snow East) then transitioning to ZR and finally just rain. But 12+ hours of frozen precipitation could make for a high impact storm of the temps are below 30. Definitely a big change from yesterday’s much warmer solution
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 10:39:33 GMT -6
That GFS run is pretty rough. Low level cold hangs tough and allows for several hours of icing with temps in the upper 20’s
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 10:42:04 GMT -6
Dry air is going to decimate the northeast flank of the precip shield
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 13, 2020 10:49:09 GMT -6
That GFS run is pretty rough. Low level cold hangs tough and allows for several hours of icing with temps in the upper 20’s What is the timing of this event? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2020 10:50:07 GMT -6
May be something brewing in the D9-D10 too. The models have been pretty good with indication of "something" at those ranges this year. Not so much on the temps, but potential systems they have. EPO looks better today too.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 10:57:46 GMT -6
That GFS run is pretty rough. Low level cold hangs tough and allows for several hours of icing with temps in the upper 20’s What is the timing of this event? Friday during the day |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2020 10:59:03 GMT -6
Looks to start around morning rush Friday that would be bad
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 10:59:25 GMT -6
First guess , Probably 3am - 6pm Friday, WAA usually starts about 2-3 hours ahead of modeling.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 11:05:26 GMT -6
GEM is showing ice now for the first 6-12 hours. You basically have every model now showing some ice at least. Definitely a watcher at this point. Someone post the UKMET when it comes out
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2020 11:09:20 GMT -6
Models throw down the gauntlet of p-types with the system towards the end of the work week...would start as snow/sleet and transition to ZR before changing over to rain the way it's currently modeled with a retreating arctic airmass. Definitely an impactful system as surface temps would support efficient accretion for several hours at least until warming above freezing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 11:10:59 GMT -6
Ukie still looks like the warm outlier. Though it’s been trending colder and weaker every run
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2020 11:24:15 GMT -6
Really strong agreement across gefs members for a period of icing Friday morning.
Tight grouping for this range
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2020 11:43:55 GMT -6
Really strong agreement across gefs members for a period of icing Friday morning. Tight grouping for this range GEFS p-type mean is pretty telling  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 11:55:32 GMT -6
The GEFS came in way colder , wow what a change in 24 hours! Hopefully they trend a little colder , I would much rather deal with sleet than freezing rain
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 13, 2020 12:09:46 GMT -6
The GEFS came in way colder , wow what a change in 24 hours! Hopefully they trend a little colder , I would much rather deal with sleet than freezing rain Hell, let's get this thing to come all the way south and have a repeat of last year's epic snow  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2020 12:22:25 GMT -6
euro maybe a couple hrs of ice before lots of rain.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2020 12:27:43 GMT -6
Come on snow, let’s not start the doom and gloom post so early
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 13, 2020 12:28:08 GMT -6
Maybe 2 drops of ZR or 2 sleet pellets.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 13, 2020 12:31:58 GMT -6
Maybe 2 drops of ZR or 2 sleet pellets. Pretty much what the euro shows. Oh..for the figuratively speaking challenged, that means it shows hardly any ice at all..some..but very little |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 13, 2020 12:38:05 GMT -6
Maybe 2 drops of ZR or 2 sleet pellets. You mean, hardly anything? |
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