|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 11, 2019 11:36:51 GMT -6
Do we officially have a Watcher? I would say if tonight's runs stay steady, then yes. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2019 11:39:00 GMT -6
The setup reminds me of the storm from Jan 11th this year. Care to explain? |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 11:44:56 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2019 11:51:53 GMT -6
The setup reminds me of the storm from Jan 11th this year. Care to explain? WAA doesn't look as robust this time around, but a slow moving, unamplified low pinned up against the approaching arctic high. The big thing with the storm earlier this year was the seemingly unending moderate snow. This system seems to have a stronger back end though as the storm wheels up into the OH valley. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2019 12:22:35 GMT -6
Looks like the euro will be south..southern MO will be winning.
Far southern MO gets a few inches, we get a few flakes
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 12:30:09 GMT -6
Ya euro is pretty suppressed. Still hits the southern counties with decent WAA snow
Split the difference between the GFS and Euro and you have the GEM
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 11, 2019 12:43:13 GMT -6
Ya euro is pretty suppressed. Still hits the southern counties with decent WAA snow Split the difference between the GFS and Euro and you have the GEM Euro focusing on the track of the 850 low in placing the snowfall... mid levels suggest it would be further north. Pretty disjointed system at this point. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 11, 2019 12:44:25 GMT -6
Also much quicker and less wrapped up with the Saturday AM system.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2019 13:14:28 GMT -6
Euro ensembles look pretty solid
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2019 13:16:46 GMT -6
This is on the cusp of being a legitimate watcher.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 11, 2019 14:40:33 GMT -6
Nice to see an active pattern showing up coast to coast in Dec. Just seems like its been rather bland these past several yrs.
|
|
|
|
Post by perryville on Dec 11, 2019 14:57:13 GMT -6
Just had a fellow teacher show me an internet based forcast  . I told her, don't get your hopes up, but have your kids do some snow dancing this week. Week before Christmas is CRAZY anyway so why not throw a couple snows days in there . |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 16:04:04 GMT -6
18z gfs remains amped and north.
Still a solid hit with the WAA
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 16:05:24 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS ain’t caving. Fun model battle going on right now. GFs is pretty outnumbered though
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2019 16:08:49 GMT -6
We know which model wins this. The same one that always wins, lol. Question is will the euro stay way suppressed or throw us a bone?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2019 16:11:40 GMT -6
The cold front is still expected to stall somewhere over the lower
Mississippi Valley Saturday night as the flow aloft becomes zonal in
the wake of the long wave trough. Low level flow then turns back to
the south ahead of the next wave on Sunday morning and chances for
precipitation increase through the day and into Sunday night.
Temperatures are in the range where wintry precipitation is possible
across the entire area. However, looking at the GEFS and ECMWF
ensembles there continues to be a lot of uncertainty with this
system. For instance, GEFS snow accumulation plumes for St. Louis
range from 0 to almost 16 inches for Sunday through Monday! The
majority of the members show an inch or less, but there is a
clustering in the 2-4 inch range. ECMWF ensemble probabilities are
in the 60-70% range across much of the area for accumulations of at
least 1 inch with the majority falling between 06Z and 18Z Monday.
However, probabilities fall quickly to 50% or lower at 3+ inches.
With all of this in mind, the snow forecast for Sunday-Monday is
still very low confidence at this time. The remainder of the
forecast period looks relatively quiet and seasonably cool behind
the Sunday/Monday storm system.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2019 16:34:39 GMT -6
Stupid gfs. It looked better at 12z. I really need to stop model surfing.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 11, 2019 16:38:13 GMT -6
We know which model wins this. The same one that always wins, lol. Question is will the euro stay way suppressed or throw us a bone? The one that usually wins is just the one that shows the most boring outcome... |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 16:45:54 GMT -6
The gfs just shows what the euro showed on Sunday night.
It’s just 3 days slower to correct itself
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 16:54:02 GMT -6
Big jump north in the 18z GEFS
So if nothing else the GFS camp is finally consistent
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2019 16:57:19 GMT -6
Big jump north in the 18z GEFS So if nothing else the GFS camp is finally consistent I don’t like that. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 17:10:48 GMT -6
Big jump north in the 18z GEFS So if nothing else the GFS camp is finally consistent That is a very pronounced jump. It’s interesting because the euro normally is way too aggressive with spinning up storms in the medium range. Probably just ride with the gem until one of the other two cave |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 11, 2019 17:12:49 GMT -6
For st.louis it still means a few inches though. So not bad. Southern folks im sorry. More than likely its a 70 storm. But we will see average euro amd gfs and its a 70 storm
|
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 11, 2019 17:13:25 GMT -6
And so it begins...
Posts are already popping up with ridiculous snow amounts. That stage could’ve been added to the shirt.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Dec 11, 2019 17:16:12 GMT -6
Trust me......no snow this time......I already put plows on trucks today to make they were operable!! All is good and spreaders will go on them Friday afternoon.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 17:18:16 GMT -6
Big jump north in the 18z GEFS So if nothing else the GFS camp is finally consistent I don’t like that. Unless the euro caves it’s nothing to worry about. We’re still in the range where 100 miles one way or another could just be noise |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 11, 2019 17:20:39 GMT -6
Trust me......no snow this time......I already put plows on trucks today to make they were operable!! All is good and spreaders will go on them Friday afternoon. Man, you always jinx it. That's it, just winterize...err...summerize(?) your equipment now! |
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Dec 11, 2019 18:54:25 GMT -6
When was the last time the whole state was under a storm warning for snow at once?
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 18:58:37 GMT -6
When was the last time the whole state was under a storm warning for snow at once? GHD blizzard fail almost did it  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 19:03:47 GMT -6
I can hear the sleet just looking at that map
Witnessing 3-4” of sleet was kind of cool though
Made for incredible sledding
|
|
. I told her, don't get your hopes up, but have your kids do some snow dancing this week. Week before Christmas is CRAZY anyway so why not throw a couple snows days in there 
