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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2019 0:26:45 GMT -6
backside precip looks solid!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 0:32:00 GMT -6
Euro is really solid
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2019 0:37:24 GMT -6
00z ggem is an I-70 mauler. Beautiful hit from each end of the storm!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 0:38:59 GMT -6
Euro is printing out some big big numbers that run snowfall wise
The Euro, GEFS, GEM, and ICON make a strong case for an impactful system Sunday and Monday
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 11, 2019 1:44:33 GMT -6
Hope you have some nice plump people with ya.  That's funny but also a little scary Caltrans is really good about keeping things safe on I-80. If there's any question about getting through they shut it down until the storm passes and they get things dug out. What may cause you problems is they often make chains mandatory. If you're in a rental and they generally don't have chains you may have to wait even the highway is open but restricted. There are chain rentals but I don't know how all that works. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 4:09:49 GMT -6
6z gfs is way north with the WAA, and remains north and amplified with the rest of the system.
Interesting battle developing. Usually, the euro wins with ease.
However, this run shows the classic STL snow hole so I think it makes a strong case lol
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 11, 2019 4:43:09 GMT -6
Chris laying down the gauntlet with possible accumulating snow Monday with 2-3 more snow possibilities going into Christmas... And the Birthday gifts just keep coming... There will be no getting any snowblowers out of mothball status, leave them be. There will be no "trying to get ahead of the system" for all you in the snow/ice removal business, let the trucks sit. I will do my part....the blade will stay off the 4 wheeler until the majority of the snow/ice has fallen. Wrong |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 11, 2019 6:03:20 GMT -6
Chris what are your thoughts for the Friday night into Saturday morning system?
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Post by snowjunky on Dec 11, 2019 7:13:24 GMT -6
Sorry - I always get Chris and Glen mixed up...lol How can you mixed them up? One shows the computer models of what might happen and one makes an experienced, well analyzed forecast with artistic snowfall maps drawing them in the form of the male anatomy without even realizing it. 😃 |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 11, 2019 7:15:24 GMT -6
Sorry - I always get Chris and Glen mixed up...lol How can you mixed them up? One shows the computer models of what might happen and one makes an experienced, well analyzed forecast with artistic snowfall maps drawing them in the form of the male anatomy without even realizing it. 😃 OMG!!! This just made my day! 😂😂😂 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2019 7:15:25 GMT -6
I'll take that Euro from last night haha! GFS is all alone at this point. I'll feel much better if we see a trend toward the Euro today at 12z.
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Post by perryville on Dec 11, 2019 7:36:05 GMT -6
Paducah NWS is flustered as usual, bless their heart. They completely dominate the weather situations in severe weather, but winter is like visiting the fortune teller. To their credit, they, along with most others on this board, are looking at all the possibilities for Monday. Could be a cold rain, a mix or nothing at all. Can’t miss forecast!
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2019 9:56:18 GMT -6
ICON says NO way. So the fun begins |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 11, 2019 9:56:41 GMT -6
Their skillset really needs to be with severe storms too. As far as winter storms, you can count on that area being in the transition if theres any winter precip to begin with in that region. So the exercise for them is to pin down that line and it is way too early to pin that line down for lsx, much more for them. Elevation is a big issue for them as well. My hats are off to pah. There is never a snowy pattern for them. Yet they have to pin down that transition on those relatively rare events. In fact, putting the word snow in the forecast probably requires the same level of scrutiny and diligence as lsx forecasting 80 degrees for the first time in the spring. Ppl down there react to snow in the forecast in a much more dramatic fashion. They are more on guard...growing up down there, i wld always remember the phrase "...if it doesnt snow". Ppl plan their lives around whether it snows or not, even though it snows once a year on average. The difference bw the nw fringes of pah vs the pennyrile rgn is huge too. I personally think perryville belongs in the lsx area. Cgi definitely needs to be in the pah area but i cant tell you how many times snow was forecast and it only got as far south as perryville. Of course cgi used to get forecasts out of stl then but my point being perryvilles wx is closer in resemblance to lsx than pah.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 11, 2019 10:02:10 GMT -6
ICON says NO way. So the fun begins What is the icon doing? Pumping up the ridge head of it? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 10:05:36 GMT -6
12z gfs has a nice WAA burst along and north of 70 before the main storm pulls north.
Really close to a huge run for the area
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2019 10:05:39 GMT -6
GFS came south significantly. Trending toward Euro, but how far will it go?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2019 10:07:50 GMT -6
Icon is a weak little thing that scoots mostly south of us. GFS has a few inches of WAA snow then the 2nd part is more ice than anything.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2019 10:26:29 GMT -6
Will be interesting to see how GGEM plays out. Seems to play nice with ICON solutions.
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kkwhit
Weather Weenie
Ballwin, MO
Posts: 40
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Post by kkwhit on Dec 11, 2019 10:35:20 GMT -6
In CT for work this week and had a nice little overnight of 3-4 inches here in Shelton. Wet, heavy snow. Makes me that much more excited about getting home and hopefully seeing some of the white stuff soon!
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2019 10:36:07 GMT -6
In CT for work this week and had a nice little overnight of 3-4 inches here in Shelton. Wet, heavy snow. Makes me that much more excited about getting home and hopefully seeing some of the white stuff soon! Lived in Stratford for a couple years when I was growing up... love that area. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2019 10:52:39 GMT -6
GEM got that double chocolate look
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 11, 2019 10:52:59 GMT -6
GFS has things come together rapidly almost on top of us. GEM is so slow but a good hit. ICON is nada.
I like where we sit. At least we have something to watch as we head into the weekend.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 11, 2019 10:54:07 GMT -6
GEM is like 24 hours straight of snow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 10:58:21 GMT -6
GEFS still looks solid. Maybe a slight jog north but that could easily be noise.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 11, 2019 11:01:31 GMT -6
The setup reminds me of the storm from Jan 11th this year.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 11, 2019 11:16:53 GMT -6
Do we officially have a Watcher?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 11:20:53 GMT -6
Ukmet is closer to the ggem than the gfs.
I suspect the euro will be well south of my area at 12z
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 11:24:51 GMT -6
Ukmet is closer to the ggem than the gfs. I suspect the euro will be well south of my area at 12z The 06z euro ensembles look unchanged from the 00z run. I’m going to guess the euro looks similar to last night |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 11, 2019 11:32:06 GMT -6
12Z UKMET looks better than the 0Z cycle. It's still suppressed to the south a bit. Seeing the 12Z GFS a little too far north might not be a bad thing as this stage of the game.
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