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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 19:18:52 GMT -6
Small jog north on the 18z Euro ensembles
Could be just a blip or start of a trend
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2019 19:27:35 GMT -6
The size and scope of that storm was amazing.
So was the depression that set in. lol
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 11, 2019 19:59:34 GMT -6
Slight jog north on euro is a great thing
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 20:48:52 GMT -6
NAM has a quick but heavy hit of snow early Saturday morning
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 11, 2019 20:50:57 GMT -6
For you people that stay up all night...I better be reading "Euro is wagons north" tomorrow morning.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 11, 2019 20:51:46 GMT -6
Saturday morning still has some interest to me... lapse rates thru the DGZ are close to 8*C  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 11, 2019 20:56:19 GMT -6
For you people that stay up all night...I better be reading "Euro is wagons north" tomorrow morning. I'll just do it now to save you time, and I don't work tonight. Wagons north on the Euro! Yay! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 20:58:15 GMT -6
For you people that stay up all night...I better be reading "Euro is wagons north" tomorrow morning. You can get the Ukmet 90 minutes earlier and be right most of the time |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 11, 2019 21:16:18 GMT -6
I have been logged out all year, I finally figured out my password from many years ago. I no longer had the recovery email. (Past work email) I like a blend of the Euro and GFS
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 21:23:40 GMT -6
00z Icon is back to looking good
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 11, 2019 21:55:50 GMT -6
So Snow wise should we go on Yellow Alert?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 22:00:29 GMT -6
00z gfs refuses to cave.
Hell, it might end up being a Wisconsin storm lol
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2019 22:02:03 GMT -6
Not a fan of the gfs. Watch this be the one time it wins.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2019 22:08:16 GMT -6
I will say this..I don’t think I’ve ever seen the WAA come in as sleet/snow followed by the rest being rain. I’m sure it’s happened but awfully rare. The big one this past January I guess but that was just a strange bird altogether.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 11, 2019 22:09:11 GMT -6
Yeah...still really far north. Even more north than the 12Z cycle.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 22:09:56 GMT -6
If we get a more amped up solution, there will likely be a zone of significant ice accumulation between the rain and snow line. Pretty good setup with a shot of cold immediately in front of the system
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 22:14:26 GMT -6
I usually throw out runs that show 16 inches of snow in 8 hours where I live.
You guys shouldn’t worry about the gfs. It’s the euro being south that is more concerning.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 11, 2019 22:16:02 GMT -6
That is a solid hit for southern Iowa on that run. Any further north and wsc might miss out on the south side with that.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 22:17:08 GMT -6
Gfs also puts the metro on the edge of an arctic blast next week.
The euro is way further north and east with this feature.
This will be a pretty bad blunder for one of the major models (cough, cough... gfs)
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 22:43:26 GMT -6
00z ukmet looks more organized and north on the 24 hour charts.
I would guess the euro looks good tonight based on this.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 11, 2019 22:45:37 GMT -6
GEM looks slightly further north than the 12z run
Nothing like the GFS though
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 11, 2019 22:51:03 GMT -6
Hey, what did I miss?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 11, 2019 22:58:02 GMT -6
GEFS now is targeting northern Missouri.
So, every model so far has trended north tonight, but obviously the gfs is a strength and northern outlier.
Hopefully, I wake up to a good run of the euro for all of us.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 0:20:21 GMT -6
Euro is cooking up something nice for the area
Looks like you'll get your wish bdg
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 0:36:07 GMT -6
Much juicer euro run that time
Still a flat system overall but able to produce a significant winter storm for parts of the area
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Post by weatherj on Dec 12, 2019 0:41:29 GMT -6
Much juicer euro run that time Still a flat system overall but able to produce a significant winter storm for parts of the area Is there any north shift versus the 12 z run and how far? Targeting the central CWA? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 12, 2019 5:26:17 GMT -6
So looking closely at the 00z and 06z models runs and the available ensemble guidance... there are a couple of things I'm seeing.
1) There seems to be more agreement in the WAA phase of this storm system bringing a burst of accumulating snow Sunday evening into Sunday night.
2) There is some reasonable agreement with the track of the trailing shortwave, vortmax...and even 850mb lows. A big difference seems to be that the Euro shears the shortwave much faster while the GFS maintains a more well defined shortwave. In either case...the track of the shortwave...and the 850mb circulation...actually favors a more northward placement of the second phase of the storm/deformation snows...something closer to the 00z GEM and GFS. However...and this is where it gets really complex...a more sheared shortwave as shown by the Euro...would result in much less of a deformation driven snow...and more of a mid-level frontogenesis driven secondary band...that would slide east along and just north of I-70 during the morning Monday. Because I am favor a less wrapped and more sheared system... I'm siding with a solution more similar to the Euro....for now. Also, for the time being... I see no reason to depart from the message of "winter mix" developing late Sunday and continuing into at least early Monday. Some accumulation is possible... probably a light event...maybe low end moderate.
My general thoughts on how this will play out...
This breaks down into two phases.
Phase #1
Snow...possibly mixed with sleet with rapidly develop during the late afternoon hours Sunday...with several hours of snow Sunday night. A couple of inches fall with this phase of the event.
As the warm air advection phase (phase 1) ends...we transition to freezing drizzle with the loss of lift and moisture in the DGZ....and wait for phase #2...the shortwave. Freezing drizzle is most likely late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Developing during the morning...a mix of light freezing rain, sleet and snow...stratified from south to north. As the shortwave shears east...a band of mixed precip will transition to mostly snow and slide east along/north of I-70... dropping another couple of inches...especially just north of STL.
If I had to put an early number range... I'd say we are looking at a 1-3 maybe 2-4 type storm.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 12, 2019 6:53:02 GMT -6
Thanks Chris. This nasty stomach bug I have is the pits!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 7:03:45 GMT -6
6z GEFS adjusted south a bit.
Has the primary snow band from Kansas City through Hannibal.
I think that makes a lot of sense.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 12, 2019 7:34:02 GMT -6
6z GEFS adjusted south a bit. Has the primary snow band from Kansas City through Hannibal. I think that makes a lot of sense. Yeah... that would likely be with phase #2... what would be the deformation zone...and sits in the proper location north of the track of the 850 mb low...of course...I like a somewhat more sheared solution which would be a bit more south. |
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