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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 10, 2019 11:09:39 GMT -6
12z ggem is nice. It’s a weaker version of the gfs, with a moderate impact event. Yeah the GEM looks beautiful. Weaker, but better quality for STL. Not too bad for you in Chicago either. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2019 11:14:10 GMT -6
I don’t like that the gfs has it wound up a bit...it is somewhat unusual to see it come back south when it comes to that model. However the Canadian and especially euro being on our side is nice. Hopefully it looks even better today.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Dec 10, 2019 11:46:13 GMT -6
Was just thinking abt this time,maybe a day earlier, abt 2 or 3 years ago we had that fr dz event that caused so much havoc in the evening rush. I guess it was 3 or 4 years ago. dec 17, 2016 A microscopic amount of moisture, yet one of the deadliest winter "events" on MO roads. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2019 11:54:09 GMT -6
On a more serious note, the GEFS looks good It suggest a flatter system bring accumulating snow from central Kansas right through the area That is more along the lines of my thinking. More sheared out/supressed..maybe starts as a mix briefly until wetbulbing takes over...then ends as freezing drizzle and sleet when we lose ice nucleation...with nice little snow in between. From a conceptual basis...the 00z GEM looks about right for this kind of pattern. |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 10, 2019 12:02:23 GMT -6
When, Chris?
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 10, 2019 12:16:42 GMT -6
Sunday afternoon/evening through Monday |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2019 12:35:22 GMT -6
surprisingly the euro is pretty much blah with maybe a dusting here..more in sw mo..then further east.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 10, 2019 12:43:01 GMT -6
Does anyone else think people feel differently when it’s cold and sunny than when it’s Cold and grey outside?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2019 12:47:07 GMT -6
euro never met a noreaster it didn't like. Also it's waaay further north and east with the arctic air mid and late next week.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 10, 2019 12:53:13 GMT -6
Does anyone else think people feel differently when it’s cold and sunny than when it’s Cold and grey outside? Do you mean emotionally? personal energy? ambition? From a personal standpoint yesterday I just wanted to crawl in bed and pull the covers up to my eyes. Even though it's considerably colder today the sun is out and it just makes the house a brighter place giving me more motivation to get up and move around. I imagine they get used to it. But places with lots of gray, dreary weather or days of night time because of their location on the plant would be able to chart the moods and energy levels of people. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 10, 2019 12:55:52 GMT -6
Does anyone else think people feel differently when it’s cold and sunny than when it’s Cold and grey outside? Do you mean emotionally, personal energy, ambition? From a personal standpoint yesterday I just wanted to crawl in bed and pull the covers up to my eyes. Even though it's considerably colder today the sun is out and it just makes the house a brighter place giving me more motivation to get up and move around. All of the Above |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 10, 2019 13:13:39 GMT -6
Do you mean emotionally, personal energy, ambition? From a personal standpoint yesterday I just wanted to crawl in bed and pull the covers up to my eyes. Even though it's considerably colder today the sun is out and it just makes the house a brighter place giving me more motivation to get up and move around. All of the Above No |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2019 13:16:19 GMT -6
Euro ensembles are a near carbon copy of the GEFS
Both give a nod to the GEM as the most likely solution
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2019 13:25:04 GMT -6
12z Ensemble mean snowfall for the metro (10:1)
GFS: 3.4”
Euro: 3.3”
GEM: 2.3”
Pretty good agreement at this range
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2019 13:50:09 GMT -6
12z Ensemble mean snowfall for the metro (10:1) GFS: 3.4” Euro: 3.3” GEM: 2.3” Pretty good agreement at this range Also good agreement with our in-house beaker model... |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 10, 2019 13:55:05 GMT -6
12z Ensemble mean snowfall for the metro (10:1) GFS: 3.4” Euro: 3.3” GEM: 2.3” Pretty good agreement at this range Sold. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 10, 2019 14:06:02 GMT -6
So as of right now a general range of 2-4 or 2-5 in be the way to go for now anyway?
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Dec 10, 2019 14:28:20 GMT -6
The way things turn out around here it looks like a 1-3" call in the metro initially.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 10, 2019 14:39:31 GMT -6
Everyone....it’s 5/6 days away.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2019 14:48:26 GMT -6
Everyone....it’s 5/6 days away. You’re right... ensemble number 12 of the 12z euro says 16-24 inches in the metro. Plenty of time to shoot for that lol. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 10, 2019 14:51:41 GMT -6
I'd say it's in the initial stages of being a watcher... how about a "thinker"
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2019 15:01:34 GMT -6
I'd say it's in the initial stages of being a watcher... how about a "thinker" System of interest. We are waaaaaay far out there. This could very easily vaporize into supression city and all cold no snow at this timeframe. |
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Dec 10, 2019 15:04:05 GMT -6
You mean we shouldn't start thinking about that thing on day 10 that the GFS buries Oklahoma with???  Just glad to start seeing some winter weather on the horizon again... |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 10, 2019 15:04:50 GMT -6
A little snow would be awesome with christmas decorations.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 10, 2019 15:10:08 GMT -6
Jeff if its cold, i like seeing snow on the ground. The house seems warmer when its 28 with 6 inches of snow than it does when its 28 with a bare ground. I help things along by letting the sunlight reflect into the house. But we get alot of 35 and rain around here. I hate that. Given your choices, id take sunny and cold over gray and cold...unless gray and cold is a harbinger of snow.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 10, 2019 15:33:57 GMT -6
You mean we shouldn't start thinking about that thing on day 10 that the GFS buries Oklahoma with??? Just glad to start seeing some winter weather on the horizon again... Well I would have thought that "one guy" on FB who issues "snow watches" for Oklahoma 15 days in the future would have seen that by now, but apparently not. Either he's not impressed or he's just away from the computer. It's probably the later.  |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 10, 2019 15:34:19 GMT -6
Bring on winter!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2019 16:17:58 GMT -6
18z gfs is amped.
No good for STL
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2019 17:02:54 GMT -6
18z GFS ensembles look unchanged from the 12z run. Maybe even better
I think the operational GFS run may be amping up the system in response to the arctic sledgehammer it has coming in behind it
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 10, 2019 18:18:26 GMT -6
Doesnt seem like it shld be amped, but if it does, wondering if the model is amping it too soon given the flow.
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