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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2019 12:42:37 GMT -6
euro is nada. Going to be more of a south and east storm. Probably more likely.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2019 12:53:20 GMT -6
Looks the the euro is stronger with the lead wave which causes the bigger system to be more suppressed. It still has the system which is all you want at this stage of the game
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 9, 2019 12:57:49 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 9, 2019 13:02:09 GMT -6
The Euro definitely has the system. It just doesn't quite have its act together yet but conceptually it looks quite good to me. You don't want it winding up a big storm over us at this range right now anyway.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2019 13:31:53 GMT -6
The euro ensembles look good for the system of interest. Showing a good signal for accumulating snow from Kansas on east into the Ohio Valley
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2019 13:34:55 GMT -6
Just did the 20 inches of snow to zero between 00z and 12z.
Thanks, Euro.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 9, 2019 13:56:18 GMT -6
Perryville may be the sleet capital of the United States  Haha..I was going to say Marissa to Salem was ice alley, but many times the sleet monster stays just to my south. I was going to tell him to stand in line and enjoy his cold rain while the REAL sleet capital of the world (yes, Marissa) took its annual beating. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2019 15:37:34 GMT -6
disco snippet
This is a potential time period of interest as deterministic
guidance suggests the next system to eject out of the Rocky
Mountains will have enough cold air to produce snowfall north of
the track of the surface low. Not surprisingly, ensemble members of
the GEFS and the EPS are quite dispersive with respect to the track,
timing, and strength of this system. However, there is a
decent signal for at least some accumulating snowfall associated
with this system. This is evidenced by a majority of the GEFS/EPS
members showing snowfall within or near the CWA sometime between
Sunday and next Monday. At this early juncture, the northern CWA
would be favored based on the ensemble means of the GEFS/EPS. In
addition, the location of the shortwave trough entering the CONUS
(southern Oregon/northern California) along with weak
midlevel ridging developing downstream suggest a track of the
midlevel impulse toward the northern or northwestern CWA.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 9, 2019 15:55:29 GMT -6
Winds are kicking up.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2019 17:44:34 GMT -6
18z hasn't zapped the system just yet
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2019 17:44:46 GMT -6
gfs*
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 9, 2019 20:19:08 GMT -6
Was just thinking abt this time,maybe a day earlier, abt 2 or 3 years ago we had that fr dz event that caused so much havoc in the evening rush. I guess it was 3 or 4 years ago.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2019 20:25:26 GMT -6
Was just thinking abt this time,maybe a day earlier, abt 2 or 3 years ago we had that fr dz event that caused so much havoc in the evening rush. I guess it was 3 or 4 years ago. dec 17, 2016 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2019 22:11:55 GMT -6
GFs still has the system. Not overly impressive looking this run but it’s there
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2019 22:22:12 GMT -6
Spoke to soon. Didn’t notice all the energy the GFS was holding back and it spins up another system Monday night.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 9, 2019 22:22:44 GMT -6
meh.  |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 9, 2019 23:15:01 GMT -6
Nobody gunna talk about the insane GEM?!? It’s a thing of beauty!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2019 0:43:41 GMT -6
Euro on board with the GFS with a two part system. The first being largely WAA driven then the second having more large scale support. Interesting trends
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 10, 2019 8:27:09 GMT -6
Still a consistent signal for a storm late next weekend into early week but models are pretty murky with how it all comes together...GEM bundles the energy and ejects a potent shortwave/upper low while the EC and GFS are more sheared and weaker but still have a decent wave.
That little clipper on Saturday may drop some flakes across parts of the area as well.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 10, 2019 9:41:30 GMT -6
Still a consistent signal for a storm late next weekend into early week but models are pretty murky with how it all comes together...GEM bundles the energy and ejects a potent shortwave/upper low while the EC and GFS are more sheared and weaker but still have a decent wave. That little clipper on Saturday may drop some flakes across parts of the area as well. Yeah...the clipper is an interesting feature. I didn't do much with it today... but the strength of the shortwave (as it was modeled at 00z) argues for more precip than is shown in zone of PVA ahead of the vort max. Models gave very little love there... and then the possible wrap around showers may need to be added...in some variety. As for Sun/Mon... holding steady with "winter mix" wording for now...and just calling it a time of interest. As I mentioned earlier... it seemed like a better pattern for a more strong out system...and not the wound up system portrayed at times by some models in the past few days. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2019 10:11:40 GMT -6
12z gfs has the storm.
Quick hit of WAA snow and ice before the main show shifts into northern Missouri and Illinois.
It actually looks a lot like the euro from Sunday night.
This kind of waffling feels so familiar
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2019 10:16:24 GMT -6
12z gfs has the storm. Quick hit of WAA snow and ice before the main show shifts into northern Missouri and Illinois. Ya it keeps the energy intact that run and ejects the system as a whole. Pretty good jet support to. Not sure I’m buying a big wrapped up system like that yet. This fast paced flow would seem to favor something more sheared |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 10, 2019 10:18:13 GMT -6
Hopefully the gfs is too wrapped up this run. Miniscule amounts of ice and snow followed by a soaker is not kosher.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 10, 2019 10:18:14 GMT -6
12z gfs has the storm. Quick hit of WAA snow and ice before the main show shifts into northern Missouri and Illinois. Smorgasbord of precip types that the GFS is giving out for STL. Let's see what the GEM/Euro have for lunch today. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2019 10:26:27 GMT -6
GFS unleashes the beast next Wednesday
That’s an unreal punch of arctic air
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2019 10:37:16 GMT -6
GFS unleashes the beast next Wednesday That’s an unreal punch of arctic air My lake is going to be smoking like a witch’s cauldron if that happens. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2019 10:38:53 GMT -6
And look at that massive ice storm at day 10.
Gfs trying to stuff all of winter into one week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2019 10:42:55 GMT -6
Ya that GFS run is nothing if entertaining. Arctic air outbreak followed by a massive overrunning ice/snowstorm
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 10, 2019 11:01:34 GMT -6
12z ggem is nice.
It’s a weaker version of the gfs, with a moderate impact event.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 10, 2019 11:04:38 GMT -6
On a more serious note, the GEFS looks good
It suggest a flatter system bring accumulating snow from central Kansas right through the area
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