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Post by snowday_lover on Dec 8, 2019 15:44:54 GMT -6
So, has the chance of rain/snow for tomorrow night dissipated?
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 8, 2019 16:06:34 GMT -6
So, has the chance of rain/snow for tomorrow night dissipated? It was never really terribly high. Nothing more than a few snow flakes has been advertised. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2019 16:25:34 GMT -6
May be officially time to label the system in the 7-8 day range as one of interest
GFS, euro and GEM all have it bringing accumulating snow to the area
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 8, 2019 16:25:48 GMT -6
Southern counties will be quite happy this time next week if the 18z gfs is right.
Nice, moderate level snow event.
Definitely a strong signal in the operational models for some activity across the region in a week.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 8, 2019 16:30:57 GMT -6
May be officially time to label the system in the 7-8 day range as one of interest GFS, euro and GEM all have it bringing accumulating snow to the area You beat me by a few seconds this time lol. I think the storm coming out of the Gulf Friday-Saturday will have huge ramifications for the following feature. The gfs clogs things up and prevents a more northerly trajectory which works out for St. Louis on south. Lots of 12z euro ensemble members had the Gulf low further east along the seaboard and were further north with the next bit of energy. |
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Post by snowday_lover on Dec 8, 2019 16:48:27 GMT -6
So, has the chance of rain/snow for tomorrow night dissipated? It was never really terribly high. Nothing more than a few snow flakes has been advertised. yeah, I didn’t figure it would be much but I guess I was hoping we’d get a surprise. Lol! I’m a snow lover through and through....ready for a good, sledding snow! |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 8, 2019 16:54:48 GMT -6
Metro will be a bullseye. 9 to 12 next weekend then lets be warm for christmas please lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 8, 2019 16:57:07 GMT -6
The EPS is ugly.. Big ridge building overhead several days before Christmas, with way warm temps at 850 and surface. Thats what i envision....ive been imagining a quick hit of snow bw the 10th and 20th, then sometime in the last 10 days of december another hit of snow is possible but a chg in pattern during later this time will be prolonged and cld erode the continental snow cover. I think toward late feb on is when we see choc cake. I really think daves jan thaw will occur earlier than usual and may be more prolonged than usual as well. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 8, 2019 22:19:29 GMT -6
00z gfs doing the thing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2019 22:20:46 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 8, 2019 22:23:09 GMT -6
Beginning to see some multi-model / multi-run consistency for a storm in the extended range.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2019 22:33:25 GMT -6
Hopefully we can get the ensembles to come in better agreement on the system 7 days out. That's a mean little system the GFS spins up
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2019 0:53:06 GMT -6
Quite the change in the euro from 12z to 00z
12z had the day 7 system as a small wave and the 00z blows it up into a big trough and massive system
Biggest snow is N MO into N IL on that run
System to watch for sure
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2019 1:05:23 GMT -6
Quite the change in the euro from 12z to 00z 12z had the day 7 system as a small wave and the 00z blows it up into a big trough and massive system Biggest snow is N MO into N IL on that run System to watch for sure perhaps with the development of this week's air mass moderating has had some influence of stuff upstream. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 9, 2019 5:28:33 GMT -6
The upper pattern doesnt seem to support the intensity of the surface system at day 6.5 that the GFS is cranking up. A somewhat flatter solution seems most likely... assuming the 500mb is correct.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2019 5:38:03 GMT -6
I’ll take the 00z euro please...
Lol, talk about large spread in the models.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2019 9:22:24 GMT -6
I’ll take the 00z euro please... Lol, talk about large spread in the models. At least there's some rough consensus developing between models for a potential winter storm in the ~D8 range...that's about all you can say at this point with models waffling so much. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2019 9:48:08 GMT -6
12z Icon has the storm, but favors northern Missouri and northern Illinois.
Next up is the gfs
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 9, 2019 10:00:32 GMT -6
Well Memphis down into Mississippi will get a nice snowfall tomorrow if the GFS has its way lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 9, 2019 10:13:58 GMT -6
GFS hits the area pretty good with ice and snow
Ensembles are still all over the place but it seems like a system is likely to impact the region in a week or so
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2019 10:20:26 GMT -6
GFS hits the area pretty good with ice and snow Ensembles are still all over the place but it seems like a system is likely to impact the region in a week or so Looks like it holds some energy back and goes for the knockout later in the run... But it doesn’t quite connect |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 9, 2019 10:25:18 GMT -6
GFS almost has some secondary action after that initial hit Sunday night/Monday. That would be a pretty typical nice storm for us...the first wave may end up being the WAA. We shall see but we've got a little something to watch now. Looks like a Perryville sleeter to me lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 9, 2019 10:55:58 GMT -6
12z ggem has the storm, but more for northern Missouri.
Lots of runs piling up with a storm though, so that’s good
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 9, 2019 10:56:41 GMT -6
The GFS puts this potential within the D7 window now. It looks like it is primarily driven by WAA over a pretty deep layer (up to 500mb) and a subtle shortwave that can be seen at 700mb. There doesn't appear to be a lot of UL dynamical lifting from jet streaks or vorticity advection with this one.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 9, 2019 12:05:47 GMT -6
Now we wait to see that the euro says no storm lol
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 9, 2019 12:16:12 GMT -6
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Post by perryville on Dec 9, 2019 12:22:45 GMT -6
GFS almost has some secondary action after that initial hit Sunday night/Monday. That would be a pretty typical nice storm for us...the first wave may end up being the WAA. We shall see but we've got a little something to watch now. Looks like a Perryville sleeter to me lol. Perryville may be the sleet capital of the United States  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 9, 2019 12:28:49 GMT -6
That's a crazy looking band of snow...40dbz+ |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 9, 2019 12:30:23 GMT -6
GFS almost has some secondary action after that initial hit Sunday night/Monday. That would be a pretty typical nice storm for us...the first wave may end up being the WAA. We shall see but we've got a little something to watch now. Looks like a Perryville sleeter to me lol. Perryville may be the sleet capital of the United States Haha..I was going to say Marissa to Salem was ice alley, but many times the sleet monster stays just to my south. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 9, 2019 12:35:28 GMT -6
The HRRR is picking up on some surfaced base CAPE for that band! |
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