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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2019 10:20:31 GMT -6
That’s a kaboom for Chicago. Hopefully we can get the models to trend towards a solution similar to this It’s upsetting the euro has NOT been close to showing this. Normally it has a medium range bias for these storms and blows them up. Regardless, the cold shot looks legit. Hope we all get a good snow too |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2019 11:03:31 GMT -6
GEM is close... similar pattern, but a bit more sheared out.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2019 11:10:12 GMT -6
GEM is close... similar pattern, but a bit more sheared out. Gfs ensembles are no bueno for Monday-Tuesday |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2019 11:25:20 GMT -6
GEM is close... similar pattern, but a bit more sheared out. Gfs ensembles are no bueno for Monday-Tuesday For late next Mon into Tues: The GEFS 850mb mean low is SW of the 12z GFS model run, but not by much. Maybe 30ish miles. That doesn't look that bad of a placement for the 850mb low. Someone correct me because I'm still iffy on this. In addition, regarding the deformation bands, we don't look to be in the prime zone: 150ish miles from the 500 vorticity maximum, but are close for the 12z GFS. Does one of the model platforms for the GEFS provide a mean of the 500 vorticity maximum? On Tropical Tibits, it doesn't. I know it's 6 days out haha, but I was wondering if any of you knew. Chris has brought attention to this GYB rule. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2019 11:31:38 GMT -6
Gfs ensembles are no bueno for Monday-Tuesday For late next Mon into Tues: The GEFS 850mb mean low is SW of the 12z GFS model run, but not by much. Maybe 30ish miles. That doesn't look that bad of a placement for the 850mb low. Someone correct me because I'm still iffy on this. In addition, regarding the deformation bands, we don't look to be in the prime zone: 150ish miles from the 500 vorticity maximum, but are close for the 12z GFS. Does one of the model platforms for the GEFS provide a mean of the 500 vorticity maximum? On Tropical Tibits, it doesn't. I know it's 6 days out haha, but I was wondering if any of you knew. Chris has brought attention to this GYB rule. I was looking at individual members and they looked closer the 12z ggem. I agree the general ingredients look good, but the cake being spit out is carrot instead of double chocolate |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2019 11:35:56 GMT -6
exercise in futility to try and iron out GYB features this far out... we're only within the territory of a decent synoptic setup.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2019 11:41:53 GMT -6
For late next Mon into Tues: The GEFS 850mb mean low is SW of the 12z GFS model run, but not by much. Maybe 30ish miles. That doesn't look that bad of a placement for the 850mb low. Someone correct me because I'm still iffy on this. In addition, regarding the deformation bands, we don't look to be in the prime zone: 150ish miles from the 500 vorticity maximum, but are close for the 12z GFS. Does one of the model platforms for the GEFS provide a mean of the 500 vorticity maximum? On Tropical Tibits, it doesn't. I know it's 6 days out haha, but I was wondering if any of you knew. Chris has brought attention to this GYB rule. I was looking at individual members and they looked closer the 12z ggem. I agree the general ingredients look good, but the cake being spit out is carrot instead of double chocolate I see what your saying. I'll take carrot cake at this stage of December and double chocolate around Christmas haha! I like the analogy. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2019 11:43:23 GMT -6
exercise in futility to try and iron out GYB features this far out... we're only within the territory of a decent synoptic setup. I understand, true! But does the GEFS provide the 500mb maximum vorticity? The more I think about, I guess it would be overkill to have. I can't find it. But, I haven’t looked that hard for it haha! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2019 11:46:43 GMT -6
Carrot cake is some good stuff. Add some cream cheese icing to take it to another level
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2019 11:50:40 GMT -6
Carrot cake is some good stuff. Add some cream cheese icing to take it to another level You should be banned |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2019 12:04:15 GMT -6
carrot cake and peas is honestly one of my favorite thanksgiving dishes.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 4, 2019 12:31:27 GMT -6
Anybody on here like fruitcake?
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2019 12:38:32 GMT -6
Anybody on here like fruitcake? now this guy should be banned. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2019 12:47:41 GMT -6
12z euro is a dud as evidenced by the food related comments.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 4, 2019 13:49:12 GMT -6
carrot cake and peas is honestly one of my favorite thanksgiving dishes. I think that combination sounds disgusting...
...and no to fruitcake.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 4, 2019 14:19:09 GMT -6
You all make me laugh!
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2019 14:38:17 GMT -6
Anybody on here like fruitcake? To all who don't like fruitcake! The 12z Euro run was like eating fruitcake instead of pumpkin pie for us snow enthusiasts haha. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2019 15:43:43 GMT -6
Carrot cake with cream cheese icing is very good.
Fruitcake sucks rancid eggs
Double chocolate cake is excellent
The chocolate sheet cake being made for birthday in a couple days is the bomb.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 4, 2019 15:58:04 GMT -6
Carrot cake with cream cheese icing is very good. Fruitcake sucks rancid eggs Double chocolate cake is excellent The chocolate sheet cake being made for birthday in a couple days is the bomb. 1. Agree, just not combined with peas like unclesam apparently likes. I'm all for mixing things like Ritz crackers and cool whip, but carrot cake and peas...no thanks. 2. Also agree 3. Double chocolate vodka is also good in a white russian. 4. I used to get a Texas sheet cake for my birthday (which is today...ahem, ahem), but I haven't in years.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2019 16:10:13 GMT -6
18z gfs is a repeat of 12z.
This usually ends with Europe winning
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Post by ElburnDave on Dec 4, 2019 16:22:13 GMT -6
Happy birthday, dschreib! Hope you get your sheet cake.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2019 16:39:56 GMT -6
Carrot cake with cream cheese icing is very good. Fruitcake sucks rancid eggs Double chocolate cake is excellent The chocolate sheet cake being made for birthday in a couple days is the bomb. 1. Agree, just not combined with peas like unclesam apparently likes. I'm all for mixing things like Ritz crackers and cool whip, but carrot cake and peas...no thanks. 2. Also agree 3. Double chocolate vodka is also good in a white russian. 4. I used to get a Texas sheet cake for my birthday (which is today...ahem, ahem), but I haven't in years.
Happy birthday fellow December bday boy. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2019 16:41:02 GMT -6
And yeah, carrot cake with peas is probably a sign of some traumatic childhood experience. Like having your taste buds scraped off.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2019 16:51:06 GMT -6
Happy birthday fellow early December bday members. My bday was just yesterday, and yes I had carrot cake with cream cheese icing
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 4, 2019 17:21:27 GMT -6
Fruitcake it is. No choc cake per europe. Gfs offers up slice of carrot cake...without icing.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 4, 2019 17:55:43 GMT -6
ok, maybe I was thinking of carrot ring and peas, but honestly what's the difference?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2019 18:10:34 GMT -6
ok, maybe I was thinking of carrot ring and peas, but honestly what's the difference? |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 4, 2019 18:48:12 GMT -6
I saw an article today describing what's coming next week by using the term "polar vortex." It was on a weather/meteorological web site I'm not familiar with and was very brief so I won't bother to post a link.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 4, 2019 18:56:14 GMT -6
I saw an article today describing what's coming next week by using the term "polar vortex." It was on a weather/meteorological web site I'm not familiar with and was very brief so I won't bother to post a link. Without anymore context, I won’t comment strongly. However, if you feel this is sensationalism, I would disagree. The PV will play some role in next week’s cold snap. Here is a link to someone who spends enormous time researching and communicating information about SSW and the PV. www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 4, 2019 19:04:34 GMT -6
I saw an article today describing what's coming next week by using the term "polar vortex." It was on a weather/meteorological web site I'm not familiar with and was very brief so I won't bother to post a link. Without anymore context, I won’t comment strongly. However, if you feel this is sensationalism, I would disagree. The PV will play some role in next week’s cold snap. Here is a link to someone who spends enormous time researching and communicating information about SSW and the PV. www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/I'm not saying it's sensationalism. I was posting this with the intent of making it known there is that school of thought developing. I make no evaluation as to its veracity. |
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